Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Krugerrand]

I've seen someone posting that they say those numbers during a factory tour. But, believe me, those numbers are not consistent as history has proven. We at TMC often go overboard with this and once more people keep repeating such numbers, after a few pages, the numbers look like a reality but they are not.

Point is, without any concrete source, I would not trust 1200/wk number.

The tour guide has no reason to lie to a customer going through the factory. Indeed, there's no reason for the tour guide to ever offer that information, even if asked. So the fact it was received is a good indication it was true. And if the customer saw the total on one of the TVs in the factory, Tesla has no reason to lie to their employees. Making it as good a data point as any. But feel free to add up production numbers from the first 3 quarters, subtract from 35k company guidance and divide by the number of weeks in 4th quarter less stat holidays....what do you come up with for a weekly production rate?

Of course, though, if that's not enough for you to believe they likely exited 2014 above their original target of 1000/wk, then you'll just have wait for further evidence.

 

[NigelM]

Finally, Model 3 will most likely hit the streets in 2918 so it would be crazy to let everyone see it 3 years in advance.

I'm more optimistic than NigelM on the production start date of Model 3.

I'll delighted to be wrong on this one but I'm confident enough to wager with you Model 3 won't get to consumers before 2018.

Nigel, here's the conditions of the bet I would like to make. The loser has to write at least four lines of verse on the 2016 or 2017 version of this thread (whichever is current), praising the predictive powers of the bet's winner ; )

Here is video from last night at the NAIAS. At about 0:30, Elon says the Model III "is probably 3 years away" and at 2:40 he says that we won't see a Model III prototype until next year.

Hey Papafox, that didn't take long.....get ready to write some poetry. :biggrin:

#moderatorsreadalotofteslastuff #peopleshouldntbetwithmoderators

 

[FredTMC]

I'll see if I can dig them up. I'm pretty sure we had people take the factory tour and receive the information that way. I'm also pretty sure I saw it quoted by at least one Tesla exec in an article. We've also had people do the math at various points during Q4 about how many cars/wk Tesla had to make to hit their production guidance of 35k and 1000/wk wasn't going to cut it because of the extended down time experienced during Q3 of the new line. And yet, in 14Q3 ER Tesla maintained the 35k production guidance, so they had to know there was a good chance of being able to 'catch up' otherwise they'd have reduced production guidance as they did delivery guidance. That alone indicates they were going to have to exceed 1000/wk.

Heres two known data points:

1). Tesla factory update blog said they were at 1000/week on Nov 17th

2). Elon said during q3 call that they would exit 2015 at 2000/week

Using these two data points, if you simply add around 100/week increase every month, you get to 2000/week by year end (simple linear ramping).

likewise, nov 17th was two months ago... So 1200/week now is plausible

 

[maoing]

Yes, that's my point. Some times, Elons is a straight shooter. Back to $292 days in September, Elon said the stock price is high in short term, then it proved in Q3 ER that TM did have serious production issue. I think it's not that simple to just say China demand is weak at this point, due to the high expectation from China market. It's impossible for NA+Europe to make up completely. So Elon might adjust 2015 guidance accordingly and disappoint many bulls here.

This actually might be a good thing for TSLA 2015 growth. Low guidance, low stock price after Q4 ER, then fixing China issue, X reveal, under promise & over delivery and TSLA regain momemtum.

One reason I have doubts even on 60K for 2015 rate is Elon's comment about fixing China issue. He did say that they are already seeing improvements, but he also mentioned that it will take towards the end of the year to really fix the situation. Charging issues may cause perception which may not be that easy to fix and may require education to various folks involved in the process and some may just stay away by knowing the limitations even they are resolved from tesla's view. Or, at least, Tesla may not present an optimistic scenario due to China concerns and 2014 revision.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

There are no guarantees for anything in the short term. Anyone trading on short-term hopes is playing with fire.

Welcome to the realm of quantum physics and uncertain!

Agree. This is happening because we are technically broken. And investors of course don't like to play with fire.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Yes, that's my point. Some times, Elons is a straight shooter. Back to $292 days in September, Elon said the stock price is high in short term, then it proved in Q3 ER that TM did have serious production issue. I think it's not that simple to just say China demand is weak at this point, due to the high expectation from China market. It's impossible for NA+Europe to make up completely. So Elon might adjust 2015 guidance accordingly and disappoint many bulls here.

This actually might be a good thing for TSLA 2015 growth. Low guidance, low stock price after Q4 ER, then fixing China issue, X reveal, under promise & over delivery and TSLA regain momemtum.

I think that this (bold text in quote above) is exactly what EM mentioned in the Detroit video yesterday!
He said strong demand in USA and Europe more than compensates currently weak demand in China.

 

[joefee]

In terms of taking towards the end of the year to "really fix" the China issue. I think Elon is thinking about how long it will take to deploy enough superchargers to eliminate the range fears. Sales may recover well before then when potential owners see the SC progress/build out.

 

[sundaymorning]

Yes, that's my point. Some times, Elons is a straight shooter. Back to $292 days in September, Elon said the stock price is high in short term, then it proved in Q3 ER that TM did have serious production issue. I think it's not that simple to just say China demand is weak at this point, due to the high expectation from China market. It's impossible for NA+Europe to make up completely. So Elon might adjust 2015 guidance accordingly and disappoint many bulls here.

This actually might be a good thing for TSLA 2015 growth. Low guidance, low stock price after Q4 ER, then fixing China issue, X reveal, over delivery and TSLA regain momemtum.

There was a member on this thread who talked to Elon last night in Detroit and was told by Elon that he thinks the China demand comment was overblown. This may show that the drop was unjustified... (Think about what he's really saying: the drop was NOT justified)..

Also, I believe that the negative reaction on this stock has reached its peak and we're due for a reversal. Today was an extremely bad day, given Elon's overblown comment and the December retail numbers falling below expectation, yet we're above $190s. Don't forget that the market, in general is forward looking; otherwise, there would be no market. What better way to end the bearishness with forward looking guidance for 2015? Whether it's 45k, 48k, 50k for 2015 makes no difference, Mr. Market wants X, it was a relief to know X will be available on time. IMO the beginning of this drop from ATH was exacerbated with X delays. Elon was firm that we'll get X in the 3rd Q (that's all I needed to hear, everything else is just noise and will be soon forgotten and replaced by X euphoria).

 

[maoing]

Probably it's true for 2014. But think about 2015 60K guidance, if China delivery is under 10K, Europe is around 10K also, how can TM make it? The X delivery? You know how messy was the P85D delivery, so can't expect too high for X in 2015.

I think that this (bold text in quote above) is exactly what EM mentioned in the Detroit video yesterday!
He said strong demand in USA and Europe more than compensates currently weak demand in China.

 

[Krugerrand]

Probably it's true for 2014. But think about 2015 60K guidance, if China delivery is under 10K, Europe is around 10K also, how can TM make it? The X delivery? You know how messy was the P85D delivery, so can't expect too high for X in 2015.

We're already in the year 2015. Cars ordered in Q4 of 2014 by Chinese customers weren't delivered in 2014, but will be being delivered THIS YEAR. His statement was forward guidance for THIS YEAR, not last year. The same is true of European orders. On top of that, numbers will be coming in from those markets for this year already.

2014 was OVER for the China and European market by mid October. So numbers from that point forward are 2015 numbers.

 

[Causalien]

Those who challenged my crystal and 8 ball. Please step up to what you've said and enter your position. I've entered mine.

I remember a few who said you will buy if stock reach $190. Please confirm your commitment.

Note: Despite the fall, my 8 ball did not move. There is a huge divergence between these two now, I really wonder if 8 ball will correct down hard or if TSLA will correct up hard.

 

[maoing]

We are still 1 month away from Q4 ER. Short term is very bearish for the following weeks before ER. With technically broken such big way, I would expect only a decisive ER or Model X reveal can reverse the stock trend. I'm neutural or slightly negative to Q4 ER:
1) ASP might be high but will be negated by delivery miss, so it's neutural at the best;
2) Model X launch still in Summer, 6 months away, neutural;
3) 2015 Guidance, it could be surprisingly negative just like the NAIAS hope we had until yesterday;

There was a member on this thread who talked to Elon last night in Detroit and was told by Elon that he thinks the China demand comment was overblown. This may show that the drop was unjustified... (Think about what he's really saying: the drop was NOT justified)..

Also, I believe that the negative reaction on this stock has reached its peak and we're due for a reversal. Today was an extremely bad day, given Elon's overblown comment and the December retail numbers falling below expectation, yet we're above $190s. Don't forget that the market, in general is forward looking; otherwise, there would be no market. What better way to end the bearishness with forward looking guidance for 2015? Whether it's 45k, 48k, 50k for 2015 makes no difference, Mr. Market wants X, it was a relief to know X will be available on time. IMO the beginning of this drop from ATH was exacerbated with X delays. Elon was firm that we'll get X in the 3rd Q (that's all I needed to hear, everything else is just noise and will be soon forgotten and replaced by X euphoria).

 

[Krugerrand]

3) 2015 Guidance, it could be surprisingly negative just like the NAIAS hope we had until yesterday;

I didn't think yesterday's conference was negative at all. You're blowing it out of proportion much like the media. Tesla does not live or die on the number of Model S's they sell in China.

 

[maoing]

2014 was OVER for the China and European market by mid October. So numbers from that point forward are 2015 numbers.

I really hope there are not too many wishful thinking here. It helps all of us. If China market reverse from mid-October, why Elon made bad comments in mid-January which is two month later. It's my gut feeling and I'm not trying to convince you. Just for your information.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Remember here is the short term thread. If you happen bought shares under $40 and hold for long term, you even don't need to visit this thread.

There's one good reason for anyone to visit: this thread is a good summary of events relevant to Tesla Motors.

What I don't understand is why you seem so nervous about the stock price all the time. If it's too volatile for your liking, perhaps investing in something else would be prudent.

 

[maoing]

Again long term investor don't even bother to read this thread. Short term, market is always correct.

I didn't think yesterday's conference was negative at all. You're blowing it out of proportion much like the media. Tesla does not live or die on the number of Model S's they sell in China.

 

[Krugerrand]

I really hope there are not too many wishful thinking here. It helps all of us. If China market reverse from mid-October, why Elon made bad comments in mid-January which is two month later. It's my gut feeling and I'm not trying to convince you. Just for your information.

What bad comments did he make? He said there was a problem and they're addressing it and already seeing positive results. How is that bad?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

This is really incorrect in my experience:

Short term, market is always correct.

In the short terms, markets are rarely correct because many investors don't have complete information, trade on irrational emotion, or draw the wrong conclusions from the information that they do have. Short term markets are chaotic, random, and unpredictable.

 

[maoing]

I don't know who can be calm in the past 4 months with TSLA down more than 100 points and lost 1/3 of value. Unless you bought shares under $40 and keep it for long term. Not to mention many folks here bought options in hope for short term play. At in all, this is short term trading thread, we hope the information here, regardless positive or negative, can help folks here evade risk and chase benefit.

There's one good reason for anyone to visit: this thread is a good summary of events relevant to Tesla Motors.

What I don't understand is why you seem so nervous about the stock price all the time. If it's too volatile for your liking, perhaps investing in something else would be prudent.

- - - Updated - - -

Bad or not is not the folks here can dictate. It's told from market reaction and stock price.

What bad comments did he make? He said there was a problem and they're addressing it and already seeing positive results. How is that bad?

 

[NigelM]

2) Model X launch still in Summer, 6 months away, neutural;
3) 2015 Guidance, it could be surprisingly negative just like the NAIAS hope we had until yesterday;

General comment: I've said before that some folks seem to spend all their time in the Investor section and that there's plenty of good info around in other sections of TMC.

Specific comments:

There were zero surprises at NAIAS for me; I was 100% certain that there would be nothing to see on Model 3 and 99% certain there would be no Model X reveal. Tesla management is almost certainly in blackout now for Q4 figures so there wasn't going to be anything specific there either (Elon's slips aside).

Don't get caught up in Model X being a "summer launch"; cars in the hands of customers are targeted for Q3 so easily could mean September but with Tesla's quirky definition of seasons (note Elon started saying "summer" and no longer saying Q3) this could also mean October for the first few cars and those might be Founders series so no real reservation holders coming until we're well into Q4. I have X reservation #313 and as much as I want my car tomorrow I think from everything I've heard and read that I'll get it most likely in Q4 and hopefully before Christmas.