Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[jhm]

Blind Faith Update

Just a brief update. The Q1 BFPT for today is $222.85. So the current price is in my buy zone. I just picked up more shares at $222.

This pull back is a rare opportunity to lock in shares on solid news that the market has yet to comprehend. The long range growth ambition is substantially de-risked. So I see this as a solid buy.

 

[uselesslogin]

Are inverters really $4,000?

Here is one for $1100 so no. That being said my assumption is that you have one inverter for both DC from the battery and DC from solar panels so you would need the inverter anyway for your solar panels and it makes sense.
SolarEdge Inverter

 

[chickensevil]

They basically listed some big name clients from both the utility side and the commercial use side AND the home install side and everyone just shrugged it off like it was nothing. This is more than just an "idea", they already have orders in place. I think there are still questions to be answered regarding GM and order volumes, but the initial details here that they have let on about are very appealing.

I am glad that most of my options were not set for a big rise today and I allowed for time to let this sink in. But once it does, this is going to be huge.

 

[SteveG3]

They basically listed some big name clients from both the utility side and the commercial use side AND the home install side and everyone just shrugged it off like it was nothing. This is more than just an "idea", they already have orders in place. I think there are still questions to be answered regarding GM and order volumes, but the initial details here that they have let on about are very appealing.

I am glad that most of my options were not set for a big rise today and I allowed for time to let this sink in. But once it does, this is going to be huge.

That's true, and I've been disappointed the biggest name clients have hardly been mentioned in the media coverage. That said, I think all the recognizable names were described with terms like pilot programs.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

why would it being going down? what thinking do the shorts have that make this a negative thing? It's not like all Elon said last night was "here is our battery...." He had slides showing why and how this makes sense. The stock should be flat or up.........crazy people out there.

Because people don't yet understand that what Tesla announced last night was more important than the D.

 

[pGo]

With the cost of ($3500 + ~$1500 inverter + ~$1000 installation cost = )$6000 or so, what is the residential payoff time if I am using this system with or without solar panels? Anyone did any analysis on this? Thanks.

 

[chickensevil]

That's true, and I've been disappointed the biggest name clients have hardly been mentioned in the media coverage. That said, I think all the recognizable names were described with terms like pilot programs.

Ok, but these are not cheap pilots

Amazon: "4.8 megawatt hour pilot of Tesla’s energy storage batteries"
Southern California Edison: "The two battery systems will be able to store up to 400 kilowatts and 600 kilowatts, respectively."

If the other customers fit somewhere in that scope (between 1MWh and 5MWh) that is a pretty decent chunk of change.

Assuming each power pack (10kWh) at 3,500 is linearly translated into 4.8MWh that comes out to 1.68M$ for the Amazon purchase. And this is just one of the customers we know about and are just pilots. If they like what they see and get the same results that Jackson Family Wines has received (basically saving hundreds of thousands a year in electricity costs), then it is likely to explode into the stratosphere for people wanting to make the switch.

 

[30seconds]

So far the analysts are also missing the implications on the cost of the automotive batteries. Basically tesla, by far, will become the worlds leading battery supply company. This will allow them to amortize R&D costs and factory costs over both automotive and powerwall product lines. It will allow them to build regional battery factories to minimize transport costs. It will increase the brand visibility and association with cutting edge technology.

 

[Causalien]

Well, now we are primed fir earnings runup with a gap close. Didn't think technicals can control a fundamental event like this, but wow.

Seems like. i am always flying somewhere during tesla's ER. Give me some good news when I land in frankfurt will ya all?

 

[bonaire]

Chicken, they are all seen here: Self-Generation Incentive Program


Go to Weekly projects report and use the spreadsheet, filter on "Tesla" and review. Sizes of commercial projects are pretty good. However, the home packs are a little ligher-weight than I thought. In CA, they pay an incentive of $1.46/W and they are bumped by 20% for Tesla being California-based, so 1.75. The units show a continuous power output of 2KW so they get a somewhat small incentive. The cost to install a system adds up and apparently, there is the possibility to include it in the solar PV install pricing for 30% discount. In the end, you get a standby battery and load-shaver with decent incentives. If the box really sells for $3500 (which I really have yet to understand in terms of project cost bundling) - then you may actually be getting it for free with each solar PV install from Solar City by integrating the incentives. But doesn't Solar City do leasing as a standard? Then SC gets the incentive. This seems to be a win more for Solar City than Tesla for home systems. Commercial systems, more of a win for Tesla, the buyer and the grid.

Does anyone know if the system allows Islanding? Charging of the batteries from Solar while the Grid is down? I didn't see that in specs yet, if anywhere. It may require special equipment.

 

[SteveG3]

Ok, but these are not cheap pilots

Amazon: "4.8 megawatt hour pilot of Tesla’s energy storage batteries"
Southern California Edison: "The two battery systems will be able to store up to 400 kilowatts and 600 kilowatts, respectively."

If the other customers fit somewhere in that scope (between 1MWh and 5MWh) that is a pretty decent chunk of change.

Assuming each power pack (10kWh) at 3,500 is linearly translated into 4.8MWh that comes out to 1.68M$ for the Amazon purchase. And this is just one of the customers we know about and are just pilots. If they like what they see and get the same results that Jackson Family Wines has received (basically saving hundreds of thousands a year in electricity costs), then it is likely to explode into the stratosphere for people wanting to make the switch.

Chicken, I agree these programs can "explode into the stratosphere" as you put it. However, 1) financial journalists immediately know what "pilot" means, whereas megawatt and kilowatt would mean stopping what they are doing, learning something, and thinking through implications... the word "pilot" probably spared them from even considering undertaking such an effort, 2) $1.68 million for the Amazon purchase... if analysts value the stationary storage business at $35/share now, that's $5 billion in market cap, a $1.68 million contract doesn't look so big in that context (though of course Amazon name ought not be discounted) 3) for years now there have been people promoting the narrative that Elon Musk is a carnival barking huckster as though it were their job (in some cases I think it is). For someone uneducated about Tesla, I think that gibberish narrative deepens their skepticism about the phrase "pilot program."

 

[vgrinshpun]

According to what looks like a press release from German company LichtBlick they entered into a global agreement with Tesla to integrate their batteries into the distributed storage and generation assets initially in Germany, and then EU, USA , Australia and New Zealand.

The unique proprietary platform by LichtBlick (SchwarmDirigent) allows to link distributed producers and distributed storage as a "virtual" power plant/grid assets, i.e. a battery located in one household can be charged using solar energy from another household connected to the same grid. (wow!) LichtBlick already operates a digital power plant in Germany with over a thousand decentralized units.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

With the cost of ($3500 + ~$1500 inverter + ~$1000 installation cost = )$6000 or so, what is the residential payoff time if I am using this system with or without solar panels? Anyone did any analysis on this? Thanks.

Well, taking the non-solar case if you're paying $x/kWh off peak and $y/kWh peak, then assuming 90% efficiency overall, then 1kWh peak-from-off-peak costs you $y/0.9, so you save $x-$y/0.9 per kWh. Assuming average z% usable and 1 cycle per day, then also assuming you can arbitrage full capacity you can save. So the payoff time, ignoring cost of money, would be ($6000/((z/10)*($x - $y/0.9)/day))/(h/365.25) years, where h is the effective number of days per year during which you can fully arbitrage peak usage.

TL;DR: it depends.

 

[AlMc]

I don't believe we will hear from many (any?) analysts before the ER/CC as they do not want to build out a model without more facts about margins/income stream potential which should come from the ER/CC. I hope that this, and some new info at the shareholder's meeting, will give significant positive momentum to TSLA.

I added to trading shares today at $221 and added another 35 June 19 270s to an already sizeable position 'gambling' that we do see some upward movement.

 

[FluxCap]

Just now, from Elon:

 

[mibaro2]

BTW...has anyone factored the savings that Tesla themselves will reap from their storage batteries? How much is/will Tesla saving on electrical bills if they are running solely on solar power ? That should be a fair chunk of change in a manufacturing facility.

 

[dalalsid]

There is one thing Tesla needs to learn from Apple - get customers on stage like Apple gets developers on stage. 2-3 comments from commercial customers about how much money they saved and the reaction could have been different.

 

[SteveG3]

as Elon indicated in his next tweet, his presentation started late as he'd been in a Q&A with the press before taking the stage.

Linked Fortune article below covered some points from the Q&A. What stood out to me as not covered in the event livestreamed was:

“We expect to scale this internationally. It’ll scale as fast as we can scale it.” Straubel added that Tesla Energy will have a presence in parts of Europe, especially Germany, as well as in Australia by end of this year. The company will expand into China by next year."

http://fortune.com/2015/05/01/tesla-energy-reveal/

 

[sundaymorning]

Today is a prime example why I gave up on short term trading.

 

[FluxCap]

I am beginning to wonder if today's price action has been significantly affected by bigtime LNKD, TWTR, YELP failures. Believe it or not, we get lumped in with those idiotic "social media tech thing" stocks when the market feels like it.