Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[chickensevil]

It really looks like the shorts have been trying to pile on and drive the price down as if this was supposed to be perceived as "bad news", and the stock is for the most part fighting back with all the buyers coming in. There was a solid 30 minutes or so of decently high volume which seems to have finally lost its steam and the price is slowly coming back up.

 

[Drax7]

I should have studied choreography , my results would be much improved.

generally you will Mickey Mouse yourself out of a good investment .

 

[CyberDutchie]

I don't know if the Tesla executive team watches the share price the day after an announcement or ER. My company does, and usually looks at it as a performance indicator, did Wall Street like what was announced, how well did they understand the strategy, etc.

I thought Elon was very impressive yesterday, his presentation impeccable and easy to understand. I just see him shaking his head right now. He's proposed nothing less than to save the planet and all he's getting from Wall Street right now is "sell".

Unbelievable and must be frustrating for him too

 

[FluxCap]

Bought May 1 $230 and May 22 $260 calls, probably more of them than I should've.. May be I am expecting too much from the Market...

I'm still loaded up for post-ER as well, and may buy more depending on price action. It seems analysts (and the market) do not yet fully understand how last night's reveal increases revenue projections for this business line yet, and may need the Q&A session with Elon, Deepak and JB to fully grasp what we here can already see.

 

[Gerardf]

Most talk in the press seems about the residential system, where I feel the biggest profits in the near term will be on projects at data centers and utilities. This will start influencing the SP soon enough.

 

[Gerasimental]

It's just absurd that the market's valuation of the Tesla Motors of today is the same as that of the Tesla Motors of December 2014. That alone suggests to me that the stationary storage isn't even close to fully priced in yet, but I do think it will happen bit by bit as analysts (they'll need a new set of analysts for Tesla Energy - auto analysts won't really be up to the task) start to cover this properly, revenues start showing up, more details emerge, more big name customers are announced etc. All things that we basically know will happen and therefore believe should already be accounted for in the share price, but things that retail investors will pick up on as they come up.

 

[Perfectlogic]

I don't know if the Tesla executive team watches the share price the day after an announcement or ER. My company does, and usually looks at it as a performance indicator, did Wall Street like what was announced, how well did they understand the strategy, etc.

I thought Elon was very impressive yesterday, his presentation impeccable and easy to understand. I just see him shaking his head right now. He's proposed nothing less than to save the planet and all he's getting from Wall Street right now is "sell".

Unbelievable and must be frustrating for him too

I believe Elon has said that he doesn't follow the SP day to day and that he doesn't care much for short term movements as he shouldn't imo, he knows the street will appreciate Tesla in time. From what I have read about the event so far opinions have been pretty unbiased, just asking how big this might be without really implying much, well I guess it is often pointed out the growth trajectory analysts expects this market to be on. The announcement was nothing special and I think todays price action makes decent sense, we pretty much got the base case for what was expected, nothing more, except some customers showing interest which we kinda already knew would be there too. I do still think there is room to run though as we get more colour (I like that word too, and I'm not an analyst) on the expected income from this business in the earnings call next week, which could lead to some upgrades from analysts.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I don't know if the Tesla executive team watches the share price the day after an announcement or ER. My company does, and usually looks at it as a performance indicator, did Wall Street like what was announced, how well did they understand the strategy, etc.

I thought Elon was very impressive yesterday, his presentation impeccable and easy to understand. I just see him shaking his head right now. He's proposed nothing less than to save the planet and all he's getting from Wall Street right now is "sell".

Unbelievable and must be frustrating for him too

I think he could have done better. I am on board with his vision, don't get me wrong, but it is just that, a vision for most analysts and bean counters.

They already have a number of corporate clients lining up and they did a PR for that, but that was not enough. At the end of the event I couldn't help but feel: "so that was it?!". I thought something was missing. I expected some major industrial clients to come on stage: heads of utilities, Amazon, the winery, etc. and talk about their experience so far and concrete plans they have. And where was the SolarCity head of sales? He/she should have come on stage to talk about the pilot of the few past years and announce new packages, combos of PV panels plus Powerwall for new cilents and special offers to existing SolarCity cilents to retrofit their install.

If they had more concrete commitments and cilents come on stage, the SP would look different today.

 

[Johan]

If they mention the gross margin they expect to have on these units and it's at parity with, or above, their automotive gross margin AND if they can present definitive statements about demand (basically pending orders from big businesses customers) I'm sure we'll see a solid move in the stock price. This could occur after the ER.

Then they would have two distinctive products/lines of business (cars + storage), each with great margins, each production constrained. As long as the GF proceeds according to plan and can supply both product lines with batteries (so they don't cannibalize each other) then Tesla have grown their value immensely while at the sane time derisking an investment in TSLA.

The media has caught on to the "home battery" but I think now in the first couple of years the money will be in business/industrial scale systems.

 

[v12 to 12v]

I think he could have done better. I am on board with his vision, don't get me wrong, but it is just that, a vision for most analysts and bean counters.

They already have a number of corporate clients lining up and they did a PR for that, but that was not enough. At the end of the event I couldn't help but feel: "so that was it?!". I thought something was missing. I expected some major industrial clients to come on stage: heads of utilities, Amazon, the winery, etc. and talk about their experience so far and concrete plans they have. And where was the SolarCity head of sales? He/she should have come on stage to talk about the pilot of the few past years and announce new packages, combos of PV panels plus Powerwall for new cilents and special offers to existing SolarCity cilents to retrofit their install.

If they had more concrete commitments and cilents come on stage, the SP would look different today.

It is more than just a vision. There are commercial, industrial and residential systems in place now. They have been doing installations prior to the announcement. That is revenue that will show up on the spreadsheet right away. I would like more information on how industrial, commercial and utilities are going to be paying for these units.

I interpreted this event to be a "heads-up" to help explain this new revenue on the upcoming earnings release.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Tesla enters battery market with technology tested with | The Press Democrat

 

[mibaro2]

Tesla enters battery market with technology tested with | The Press Democrat

Based on that article, the Tesla battery storage is saving Jackson Wineries hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. Combined with solar, and the savings go into the millions.
This is what the analysts don't realize...just how huge this product is.

 

[uselesslogin]

So from my perspective if we can just close relatively flat I am happy. After the D event it was down $20 so flat would be an improvement. Also we have the CC to look forward too so if some color is provided to indicate the short term margin and revenue expectation that could certainly help the price.

 

[ggies07]

why would it being going down? what thinking do the shorts have that make this a negative thing? It's not like all Elon said last night was "here is our battery...." He had slides showing why and how this makes sense. The stock should be flat or up.........crazy people out there.

 

[aznt1217]

because of stuff like this: :tongue:

Why Tesla's Powerwall Is Just Another Toy For Rich Green People - Forbes

I know I sound like a broken record, but aside from easing the load on the grid... how does everybody forget to factor in the cost of this system for the cost of a conventional + gas generator... I love how that's conveniently left out.

To me, you are getting a sweet deal on a backup battery for your house and everything else is a financial cherry on top.

 

[v12 to 12v]

why would it being going down? what thinking do the shorts have that make this a negative thing? It's not like all Elon said last night was "here is our battery...." He had slides showing why and how this makes sense. The stock should be flat or up.........crazy people out there.

Low volume means easy manipulation.

People can't wrap their heads around it yet. The pre-written "Chicken Little" articles and alarmist statements out there tell me that someone realizes how big this is that that they were caught off guard. :wink:

 

[SteveG3]

My other major long term investment was a biotech. Tesla is effectively pioneering a new industry. With far less novel strongly positive news that biotech could initially selloff only for the value of what was announced to sink in over days. This happened repeatedly, it's common for people to distrust that something is as good as it seems to themselves without first seeing that others are seeing it the same way.

I think we are going through a process in steps for market participants to trust that they can act bullishly on this news. Now the analysts are trying to understand this. There are about 20 of them, and as has been pointed out today, they are auto analysts (Andrea James being an exception). For the most part, unlike many here on TMC, the analysts will learn more about stationary storage in the next week then they knew before last night.

For now, I think we'll generally see what we saw from Stiefel. Noting the scale of what this could mean to there valuation, but stating that more questions need to be answered, and holding off on changing their valuation. I suspect the bulk of reports with changes to target prices wont happen until after the earnings call. I can understand this. Even adding $35 to their valuations means they are going on record valuing a business at $5 billion, that a) they knew scarcely anything about yesterday, b) Tesla has only had revenues in the tens of millions to date as I understand, c) the current entire market as I understand it this year is in the $200 million range for revenues. Adding $70 to their price targets would mean valuing the business at $10 billion now. This might ultimately be fine, but doing it would be sticking one's neck out. Remember, up through April 2013 with all the visibility on Tesla's auto business, the entire company was valued at $3-4 billion.

Tesla's shares are owned ~25% by insiders, 60% by institutions and mutual funds, and the other 15% I understand to be retail investors. The insiders are not going to move the stock price. The people managing mutual funds and institutional investments almost without exception very likely have substantially less of a grasp than the analysts about this new business, and they will not spend nearly the time trying to make sense of this over the next week as the analysts. The retail investors as a whole are in less of a position to grasp this on their own than the institutional investors. The bulk of market participants that can move this stock are on hold until they see the analysts making sense of this for them. The opportunity for analysts to ask questions on the call is likely the key event in the market developing a picture of this business. Let's see where this goes over the next couple of weeks. In my view, this is very different than the "D" event.

 

[uselesslogin]

because of stuff like this: :tongue:

Why Tesla's Powerwall Is Just Another Toy For Rich Green People - Forbes

I know I sound like a broken record, but aside from easing the load on the grid... how does everybody forget to factor in the cost of this system for the cost of a conventional + gas generator... I love how that's conveniently left out.

To me, you are getting a sweet deal on a backup battery for your house and everything else is a financial cherry on top.

Well if you ask me the residential product is just advertising anyway. I really think the commercial and utility installations will be far more lucrative.

 

[yesla]

I think he could have done better. I am on board with his vision, don't get me wrong, but it is just that, a vision for most analysts and bean counters.

They already have a number of corporate clients lining up and they did a PR for that, but that was not enough. At the end of the event I couldn't help but feel: "so that was it?!". I thought something was missing. I expected some major industrial clients to come on stage: heads of utilities, Amazon, the winery, etc. and talk about their experience so far and concrete plans they have. And where was the SolarCity head of sales? He/she should have come on stage to talk about the pilot of the few past years and announce new packages, combos of PV panels plus Powerwall for new cilents and special offers to existing SolarCity cilents to retrofit their install.

If they had more concrete commitments and cilents come on stage, the SP would look different today.

I partially agree. EM just reiterated what JB presented about the gigafactory a while ago. Except, I think EM is really getting better at presenting. The whole presentation felt well written and truly inspirational.

The power wall. Sounds sexy. And mounted outside, it's going to change the look of neighborhoods. See who's "power wall" is bigger. Very good marketing. Love it.

This is the type of feels apple product launches once had.

Eventually though, I think EM should share the stage with the other geniuses he works with. Each with their own persona. Like the avengers in business. ROFL

 

[hockeythug]

because of stuff like this: :tongue:

Why Tesla's Powerwall Is Just Another Toy For Rich Green People - Forbes

I know I sound like a broken record, but aside from easing the load on the grid... how does everybody forget to factor in the cost of this system for the cost of a conventional + gas generator... I love how that's conveniently left out.

To me, you are getting a sweet deal on a backup battery for your house and everything else is a financial cherry on top.

Are inverters really $4,000?