Max pain market-maker manipulation only really works in periods of relatively flat prices and low trading volumes, not in sharp, fast-moving bull or bear markets, especially on an expensive stock with a big float. I'm pretty sure with current carnage, MM's are staying the heck away from funding their options writing activities with tons of capital, and are instead cashing out to...cash.
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I've been doing my own calculations and there are so many strike prices close to "max pain" that I would expect things to change quickly.
Anything between 220 and 230 looked game today, but it would take so little to change those numbers dramatically over the next few days.
That downward slide is nothing. Lots of stocks correct 50% every three years. Tesla has had valuations where even Elon was starting to scratch his head. Until now no profit has been achieved and enormous capital expenditure might lead to more dilution. Also we still have the same problems EVS have faced for years: Range, Charging times, and cost. BMW just came out and stated that Tesla does not have a technological advantage, only large battery cells for more range. Model X has been delayed multiple times.
At the same time we have the Fed tightening. This has already resulted in the oil market coming under enormous pressure and many US-oil companies (fracking) will be out of business.
It is my belief that the Fed will start QE4 when the bleeding of the US- stock market and oil markets is to much to take. Its wrong but they will restart the printing presses. At this time Tesla might bottom out, which will be at the end of next year maybe. However there is a lot of room to go lower, especially if this story doesnt unfold perfectly.
davecolene0606
Member
So, the difference here is the bridle company maintaining R&D on improved chafing resistance vs implementing ice tech. Also, your right, the other companies are spending in proportion to their technology. It would be ludicrous to spend the kind of R&D on tech that at best can achieve only incremental improvements limited by basic physics 101. We are back to trying to compare TSLA to a noncompetitive technology. It is very interesting also, that lately folks have been finally observing the Energy part of this play which has nothing to do with oil prices. Add price competitive storage to renewables.... fossil fuels lose... period. My only concern for us is that once that news is common knowledge the momentum may be limited.
Fire Away!
Hello, welcome to the forums. All of this is false.
Did you just read some news headlines and stick these things together? Those two things are not remotely causally linked, as you suggest.
Belief? Based on what data?
sundaymorning
Active Member
The idea that lower oil prices will hurt the US economy is a joke. Yes, some fracking companies will go under, the larger ones will survive just fine. Even if all of them go under there will be better ones built in the future and perhaps bought out by bigger meaner companies at a discounted rate.. A lot more manufactures on a global scale are going to emerge from these euphoric low oil prices stronger than ever. All kinds of industries will benefit from this: travel, retail, manufacturing, production, delivery, services, etc. Why did retail sales do so well in November? hmmm, could it be that money saved from low gas prices are encouraging more spending? It's estimated that if gas prices are lowered by a penny can bring over $1 billion to the US economy. How much has gas prices dropped? Over $1, that's over $100 billion being pumped out of oil and into other sectors of the economy folks, and this is a global phenomenon, so do the math!
Yes some countries reliant on oil production will feel the pain, but others will benefit. All these non-sense fear mongering is just that...
We are about 2 weeks away from ending 4th Q, a tweet, update on deliveries, P85d reviews, North American show is coming up, not to mention the fact that 2015 guidance will be around 50k and x is still the wild card. Every quarter Elon meets deliveries, yet every quarter we choose to play the "what if" game. Someone mentioned that they never saw apple missed production or experience delays... Apple missed projections twice on meeting guidance, where are they now? We're not buying some Micky mouse toy company here, we're buying the greatest mechanical engineered vehicle the world has ever seen, price in what you're willing to pay now because it'll more expensive. When? Who knows. Tomorrow, next week, next month? Short term is extremely hard to predict, so good luck with that! Whether you fear the falling knife or chasing the price upward, you're still better off buying now than 2 weeks ago.
For those of us trying to factor in short term long term, internal/external, domestic/global data, it can't be done, data early in this stage will come in mixed. Japan doesn't do well, but the US is hauling A**, China's GPD isn't as high as expected, yet 7% growth was considered awesome once and still is compared to what we do here in the US. Good luck everyone, consider this: Prices are great we've dropped about $90 since ATH, that's about a 30% discount rate
It's estimated that if gas prices are lowered by a penny can bring over $1 billion to the US economy. How much has gas prices dropped? Over $1, that's over $100 billion being pumped out of oil and into other sectors of the economy folks, and this is a global phenomenon, so do the math! Yes some countries reliant on oil production will feel the pain, but others will benefit. All these non-sense fear mongering is just that...
We are about 2 weeks away from ending 4th Q, a tweet, update on deliveries, P85d reviews, North American show is coming up, not to mention the fact that 2015 guidance will be around 50k and x is still the wild card. Every quarter Elon meets deliveries, yet every quarter we choose to play the "what if" game. Someone mentioned that they never saw apple missed production or experience delays... Apple missed projections twice on meeting guidance, where are they now? We're not buying some Micky mouse toy company here, we're buying the greatest mechanical engineered vehicle the world has ever seen, price in what you're willing to pay now because it'll more expensive. When? Who knows. Tomorrow, next week, next month? Short term is extremely hard to predict, so good luck with that! Whether you fear the falling knife or chasing the price upward, you're still better off buying now than 2 weeks ago.
For those of us trying to factor in short term long term, internal/external, domestic/global data, it can't be done, data early in this stage will come in mixed. Japan doesn't do well, but the US is hauling A**, China's GPD isn't as high as expected, yet 7% growth was considered awesome once and still is compared to what we do here in the US. Good luck everyone, consider this: Prices are great we've dropped about $90 since ATH, that's about a 30% discount rate
InTheShadows
Active Member
Fwiw Apple missed many times and had a plethora of hardware problems. I was an Apple sys admin for a large university and I remember many times they missed their deliveries and had hardware issues. When they first announced the Apple rack mount server we had to wait months to get it. This was after Steve came back. I recall that there were jokes about them never getting products out the door on time. Much like people are saying for TSLA now. Every company has growing pains, even ones run by geniuses.
Looks like TSLA is really going to test 200 today as it's already down pre-market on low volume. It might still be early but sets the tone for the rest of the day.
I personally expect a dip below 200 today and no stability in sight any time soon, this is definitely a falling knife. At this point, I think the next "safe" area to buy in is around 177.
I personally expect a dip below 200 today and no stability in sight any time soon, this is definitely a falling knife. At this point, I think the next "safe" area to buy in is around 177.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Yesterday we were up in pre-market and down during market. Maybe that today it's the other way round?
Hope that TSLA will go up towards 200 DMA.
Gerasimental
Member
2 new 'buy' ratings for TSLA with PTs of $300 and $320 respectively.
Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) Downgraded to “Holdâ€, Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) Got “Buyâ€: Honda Motor (NYSE:HMC), Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE:TM) | Benchmark Monitor
Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) Downgraded to “Holdâ€, Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) Got “Buyâ€: Honda Motor (NYSE:HMC), Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE:TM) | Benchmark Monitor
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
I think I can see where justthateasy is coming from as far as $200, but I wouldn't use the term "falling knife" for two reasons:
1. As I've said before I think the best way to invest or trade is on valuation. I buy trading shares a bit when I think there's a silly discount to underlying value, I trade more aggressively when I think there's a ridiculously silly discount to valuation. I think we're in the first category now, but this mornings premarket is moving closer to the second (~160s and below).
2. Traders do exaggerate moves in Tesla. It does seem very probable that breaking below $200 would mean to most traders that the wind is at the back of a downward move in the stock, and they will make bearish moves in reaction to that. However, winds are mercurial, and the next one could just as easily blow in Tesla's favor as against it. Oil looks down more today, and it could continue down more from here... or maybe this is more or less where it stabilizes. I'm sure there are people here who know more about whether that particular wind is 50/50 to blow either direction near term, but overall, I'd say collectively winds are 50/50 to blow in TSLA's favor or against it going forward.
As to investing, as I see it, the safe area to buy the stock is where it's undervalued by at least 25% and you have funds to hold the stock until it touches fair valuation again. That can be years. So, I guess my point only applies to short-term price movements about the first half of a long position, the purchase of shares, not the sale which could happen in days or years. I see the current short-term price movement as having taken us to the brink of 25% below fair value (which I see as somewhere in the $230-290 range, fwiw, that factors in some risk for owning an individual stock rather than an index). If you're watching short-term prices for a good entry point on a long-term investment, I think we are at the entry point to that range here around $200.
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I think that's the problem we are all running into. We've been here long enough to know that the price swings furiously both ways. This paired with the fact I don't want to reset my holding period clock again... I'm pretty much stuck. Right now, I feel there is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines waiting for a re-balance in January and people are cashing out some profits.
That and the fact that these are all looking like macroeconomic movements and the other autos are down is what doesn't have me TOO concerned.
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On top of that you have FED meeting today/announcement tomorrow that will probably have no language about interest rates with the implication that with jobless rates under 6% and low oil prices that boost the economy in many ways there will be interest rate hikes sooner in 2015 than later. We all knew this was coming but as you and Steve G pointed out there is a foul wind blowing. This wind is affecting pretty much all stocks.
I forgot about that... gee thanks for the reminder haha. I kid. Economy is still fragile and they need to factor in what's going to happen internationally. I still feel banks are still too tight and they'll need to gradually bring things up. I don't expect a shock. Tesla is rather different because we are starting so small...
In terms of the short term movements I think Elon and team have been quiet because of this huge SpaceX launch coming up Friday. He can only focus on so many things... The key worry for me has been addressed and that was the D deliveries. I think we are going to see a huge push... like absolutely ridiculous push to beat year end or increase the output enough in 2015 for any "misses" this year.
Chickenlittle
Banned
I suspect no interest rise for considerable time stays in. They don't need to strengthen dollar further and inflation still not issue with oil prices. Administration walking fine line between punishing Russia and totally destroying them. Ruble collapse despite dramatic interest rate there could encourage further aggression in attempt to keep power- not the desired outcome.
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