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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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When I took a graduate level Math Finance class, the professor took out a chart and did technical analysis for the class, showing the points of resistance, 200 day moving average, etc., and whether this was a good company to invest in or not. After said analysis he said "The only problem is that this isn't a stock, it's a random walk using a markov chain"

When I was preparing for math and finance exams in the past, my math professors were the authority that guided me through the field of various math and finance courses. Math professors are experts on math and they get respect from their peers based on their work in their field, which is teaching students the subject of the course. Their effectiveness is often difficult to measure and quantify as their work tends to be of a qualitative nature.

Investing and TA have their own experts in their field, which is vastly different to teaching finance and math. These experts also get respect from their peers based on their work in their field. Their effectiveness is easy to measure and quantify.

When using TA as a valuable data point in deciding when and how much to invest, there is very accurate feedback loop in place that signals to investors if their investment decisions are successful or not. They either make or lose money and their bank statements reflect the quality of decisions.

I personally find that using TA data together with all other available information increases my chances of picking the correct time to enter and exit. My feedback loop statements are guiding me if and when corrections in behaviour and thinking are required.

If TA indicators such as RSI can be disregarded, then most other market indicators, such as S&P 500, DJIA etc are equally useless. These indices do not contain information on market's future but they contain information from market's present and past. That is all we have and we just have to do the best we can with what is available.
 
That may be expensive depending on the number of P85Ds that have this problem. They can't exactly take the old, used seats and put them in new cars.
They can sell them to us older VIN Model S owners! I'd happily buy gently used seats that have the better support than the original seats we've got. I might just ask our local service center for a quote!
 
They can sell them to us older VIN Model S owners! I'd happily buy gently used seats that have the better support than the original seats we've got. I might just ask our local service center for a quote!

Bummer. I was hoping to keep this idea to myself. Supposed to be getting a new motor soon and was going to ask when they called to schedule the pickup of our car.

I was originally told the motor would be in next week but I'm not calling the SC until first week Jan. I'd rather they focus on getting those P85D's out the door than my minor motor issue (your welcome AlMc ;)
 
Bummer. I was hoping to keep this idea to myself. Supposed to be getting a new motor soon and was going to ask when they called to schedule the pickup of our car.

I was originally told the motor would be in next week but I'm not calling the SC until first week Jan. I'd rather they focus on getting those P85D's out the door than my minor motor issue (your welcome AlMc ;)

You are 'The Man':biggrin:. My wife's P85D (arrest me red color) just went into 'your car is being built' overnight!
 
Someone (ChickenLittle?) suggested reading a book titled "The Volatility Edge in Options Trading" and in one of the chapters the author talks about price spikes as a function of standard deviations.

In charting software, I couldn't find any metric similar to this (volatility is close?), so I did it myself in Excel.

A price spike is calculated this way:
1. Calculate the standard deviation of the 20 price changes immediately preceding the spike (days 1 through 21). The value obtained is the one-day volatility at the end of the first 20 price change window.
2. Multiply this number by the value of the close on day 21 to determine the magnitude of a 1 standard deviation price change at the end of the window.
3. Divide the day 22 price change by this value to recast the change in standard deviations.


Left Axis: Close price of TSLA
Right Axis: Price spike
Observations: Nothing concrete, it was an interesting exercise to go through. Maybe, I could say this: In the last year, large price spikes of more than 3 std deviations have signaled a rally in that direction and keeps going till the opposite 3 std deviation price spike is found.
Screen Shot 2014-12-13 at 12.29.56 PM.png
 
In the P85D delivery thread, I see several European buyers speaking of their VINs changed from 2014 to 2015 numbers while a similar number of US buyers are experience a change of 2015 VINs to 2014 VINs. I conclude that Tesla is moving fast enough with the production line so there's confidence in making some swaps to enable additional P85D deliveries in 2014 to US customers.

Also, the mood of the P85D delivery forum has swung from frustration to exuberance with an owner posting photos and videos of his delivery, and then back to frustration until new photos come out. I suspect as more deliveries take place in the coming week the overall sentiment of the delivery thread will turn very much positive.
 
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In the P85D delivery thread, I see several European buyers speaking of their VINs changed from 2014 to 2015 numbers while a similar number of US buyers are experience a change of 2015 VINs to 2014 VINs. I conclude that Tesla is moving fast enough with the production line so there's confidence in making some swaps to enable additional P85D deliveries in 2014 to US customers.

Also, the mood of the P85D delivery forum has swung from frustration to exuberance with an owner posting photos and videos of his delivery, and then back to frustration until new photos come out. I suspect as more deliveries take place in the coming week the overall sentiment of the delivery forum will turn very much positive.

some fun is showing up on a related thread today about P85D test drives and sightings.

seems Mike Bur has had a P85 as his comments focused on comparing the P85D to the P85. That's the comparison I'm most curious about.

then there was regoapps... not sure if he's owned a Model S, but he's got an Aventador ($400K to get this ~700 HP Lamborghini according to a quick google search). he wrote up a description of a drag race between the P85D and the Aventador he says he had. No videos on that, but later he made a short video driving the D around including a spontaneous test against a Ferrari. I'll simply say it was all fun to read and watch.

I realize these test drives are in all probability not going to move the stock. But 1)nice to see something positive 2) we are going to progress to customer reviews from new owners starting to flow (these were actually test drives), and soon we will see the media with their hands on the car as well. fwiw, in September 2012 the NYTimes Auto Section had quite a glowing piece on a Sig Model S they'd borrowed (I suspect from Tesla). The writer suggested it was the biggest game changer since the Model T. Given a little incident a few months later with another NYTimes writer, Tesla may not loan a D to them... but there are of course others Tesla can hand one of these beasts to for a day- I would be surprised if that would not make for some fun reading and more.

P85D sighting / test drives - Page 8
 
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In the P85D delivery thread, I see several European buyers speaking of their VINs changed from 2014 to 2015 numbers while a similar number of US buyers are experience a change of 2015 VINs to 2014 VINs. I conclude that Tesla is moving fast enough with the production line so there's confidence in making some swaps to enable additional P85D deliveries in 2014 to US customers.

Also, the mood of the P85D delivery forum has swung from frustration to exuberance with an owner posting photos and videos of his delivery, and then back to frustration until new photos come out. I suspect as more deliveries take place in the coming week the overall sentiment of the delivery thread will turn very much positive.

That isn't a good sign. That means Tesla is scrambling to make guidance by squeezing deliveries to be more local... Meanwhile there is the seat and airbag problems...

Someone prove me wrong please.
 
That isn't a good sign. That means Tesla is scrambling to make guidance by squeezing deliveries to be more local... Meanwhile there is the seat and airbag problems...

Someone prove me wrong please.

32no, Tesla is indeed scrambling to maximize deliveries prior to December 31, but that is to be expected. Production in Q3 was down 2,000 units and for this reason Elon reduced the planned number of deliveries in 2014 from 35,000 to 33,000.

So, is Tesla scrambling because it got a slow start in turning out units in Q4 and is racing to make Q4 delivery goals?
or
Is Tesla scrambling to make up for some of those 2,000 2014 deliveries that were removed from expectations during the 3Q earnings report?
We won't know the answer until the Q4 ER. There's plenty of incentive for Tesla to hustle in either instance.
 
32no, Tesla is indeed scrambling to maximize deliveries prior to December 31, but that is to be expected. Production in Q3 was down 2,000 units and for this reason Elon reduced the planned number of deliveries in 2014 from 35,000 to 33,000.

So, is Tesla scrambling because it got a slow start in turning out units in Q4 and is racing to make Q4 delivery goals?
or
Is Tesla scrambling to make up for some of those 2,000 2014 deliveries that were removed from expectations during the 3Q earnings report?
We won't know the answer until the Q4 ER. There's plenty of incentive for Tesla to hustle in either instance.

Tesla is always scrambling and always will be till they get to mass market vehicle electrification.
 
Someone (ChickenLittle?) suggested reading a book titled "The Volatility Edge in Options Trading" and in one of the chapters the author talks about price spikes as a function of standard deviations.

In charting software, I couldn't find any metric similar to this (volatility is close?), so I did it myself in Excel.

A price spike is calculated this way:
1. Calculate the standard deviation of the 20 price changes immediately preceding the spike (days 1 through 21). The value obtained is the one-day volatility at the end of the first 20 price change window.
2. Multiply this number by the value of the close on day 21 to determine the magnitude of a 1 standard deviation price change at the end of the window.
3. Divide the day 22 price change by this value to recast the change in standard deviations.


Left Axis: Close price of TSLA
Right Axis: Price spike
Observations: Nothing concrete, it was an interesting exercise to go through. Maybe, I could say this: In the last year, large price spikes of more than 3 std deviations have signaled a rally in that direction and keeps going till the opposite 3 std deviation price spike is found.
View attachment 65929
I made no such suggestion
 
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