I saw this misinterpretation in several financial media reports (including CNN Money) over the past 24 hours. Just tweeted EM and TM about this, seeing if they could respond to the poor coverage. It's quite a silly misinterpretation, but about a critical part of Tesla's plan, getting the GF up and running on schedule. The irony is that Elon actually stated a nearer than usual aspiration for Gen III yesterday, that being late 2016.
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I saw this misinterpretation in several financial media reports (including CNN Money) over the past 24 hours. Just tweeted EM and TM about this, seeing if they could respond to the poor coverage. It's quite a silly misinterpretation, but about a critical part of Tesla's plan, getting the GF up and running on schedule. The irony is that Elon actually stated a nearer than usual aspiration for Gen III yesterday, that being late 2016.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Two comments in Musk's recent presentation to shareholder reinforce my suspicion that Tesla will announce technological gains in power density. First, Musk emphasized that the primary criteria is energy density. He said that new batteries announced in the press simply did not have the density of their current cells or cells they "expect" to have soon. Second, when asked whether the gigafactory would be able to retool quickly if some new anode or cathode came along, Musk said that the "expect" to do so, that it is not a question of "if", but "when". So Musk seems to expect tech improvements in anodes and cathode that will lead to higher power density. Of course, he cannot announce such a development until they are quite sure that they will be able to bring it to fruition. At any rate, we know that the gigafactory is being designed to accommodate smooth transitions to new anode and cathode technologies as they emerge. We're not banking on it, but can look forward to it.
To the questions on retooling for new tech and new batteries in general, he said something like "... or the new batteries we will announce". Not that it seemed like an imminent thing or that is hsould be surprising that they do R&D on this, but it was good to hear they are working on new batteries.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Right. I don't mean to give the impression that this is imminent, but density gains are the key to improving nearly all the economics of the company, even before the gigafactory comes online. This what we should be watching for.
Consider what a 27% density gain would mean. This would push the range of the 60 pack to 265 mile range. Switching from 85 to 60 size packs means that 41% more 265 mile packs could be made. That is, the supply constraint could be eased by about 40% with a 3 to 4 year advance in density. That would go a long way to growing the company one year prior to the gigafactory. You definitely would not watching to be caught short when such a gain is announced.
This. While I'm sure falcon door seals are difficult to execute, and you could go to infinity to make the 2nd row seat a work of visual art, cameras are preferable to mirrors for drag, and integrating AWD is not something that takes an afternoon, I think the main reason for the delay in Model X reveal/sale is the finalization of the next generation packs for Model X and Model S. I think, due to increased energy density, we'll see an 85 kWh pack with 30%+ fewer batteries and a 110kWh pack that is about the same size and weight as the current Model S pack.
Nitpicking a little here, but the way you are referring to the packs/pack sizes doesn't make much sense. (I agree with your points tho)
An increase in energy density of the cells would not make 60 kWh to have more energy, it would still have 60 kWh by definition. The physical size of the 60 and 85 kWh packs are also the same, except one has more cells in it.
Higher energy density would allow an 85 pack to cost what a 60 costs today (I assume this is what you meant?). It would mean they could put these packs together in a similar fashion today in a smaller package, for Gen3. Also yes potentially means the capacity of the GF would be higher in terms of total GWh
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Looks like Tesla just spiked almost $3 on the announcement of a 'partnership' with SolarWorld. Funny how the bots/day traders don't really get the impact of certain news items. They're offering a promotion for the first 25 Tesla customers to install their solar solution... quantitatively a drop in the bucket in the big picture, there was far more significant news during the shareholders' meeting that didn't move the stock lol
http://www.solarworld.de/nc/en/grou...world/?cHash=df917fb4fb6c1dd4bb78c57421b2d5d9
jhm
Well-Known Member
Yes, I understand the confusion. I called it a 60 pack and not a 60kWh pack to indicate the size of the pack in terms of number of cells or mass. Shall we call this the "medium" pack and the 85 the "large" pack? With a 27% energy density upgrade, the medium pack should hold 76kWh and deliver a 265 mile range. Acceleration and charge rate may also improve. The large pack would hold 108 kWh and deliver a 337 mile range.
Does anyone recall what the range was for the small, 40 kWh pack? With high density cells, they may be enough demand to reintroduce the small pack with 51 kWh. Maybe the range could hit 200 miles.
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I would be very cautious with looking for specific energy density increases on that magnitude. The next most likely technology advancement for Panasonic's NCA cells is using a silicon anode. You can see the gains are not even close to the kind of numbers bandied about in this thread. Further, Panasonic and others have had a hard time "landing" this technology. Gains in one area often lead to losses in others. The 4.0Ah silicon anode battery that Panasonic announced and has not shipped is expected to be significantly heavier per cell.
Panasonic Develops High-Capacity Lithium-Ion Battery Cells That Can Power Laptops and Electric Vehicles | Headquarters News | Panasonic Global
By the way, I don't think Tesla's current cell directly correlates to any of the 3 cells in that link.
I would be more than happy with a 8% gain in specific energy and everything stay the same with the 30+% drop in cost using some intermediate technology ahead of the full blown silicon anode.
Panasonic Develops High-Capacity Lithium-Ion Battery Cells That Can Power Laptops and Electric Vehicles | Headquarters News | Panasonic Global
By the way, I don't think Tesla's current cell directly correlates to any of the 3 cells in that link.
I would be more than happy with a 8% gain in specific energy and everything stay the same with the 30+% drop in cost using some intermediate technology ahead of the full blown silicon anode.
I think 110 Pack size is imminent. Just like the speaker sound volume 11/10. My guess is 110 will be the next pack size.
I don't know if you guys notice, but Elon seems to have a special treatment for certain things. like 11/10 meaning over the norm. and for Model X, the reason he is so into it is because he loves X. X.com, SpaceX, I mean.. everything is X. even his kids: Xavier, SaXon.. lol..
I don't know if you guys notice, but Elon seems to have a special treatment for certain things. like 11/10 meaning over the norm. and for Model X, the reason he is so into it is because he loves X. X.com, SpaceX, I mean.. everything is X. even his kids: Xavier, SaXon.. lol..
+1. Someone even asked about 3100 mAh to 4000 mAh cells in the shareholder meaning, it didn't even click with Elon who thought he was asking about the power rating for the cell. Seems to indicate Tesla is using a very customized chemistry and cell construction specific to themselves, which could be very different from the stock Panasonic versions.
I picked up on that too. It was like Tesla left any 'standard' mAh level in another lifetime.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Given we have verified the 85kWh pack has 7104 cells, we know Tesla's current cell is rated at a nominal capacity of 3.6V*3324mAh, which correlates extremely well with the 3400mAh NCR18650B cell at least in terms of capacity (once you figure in the reserve capacity Tesla locks out).
For those keeping up with Panasonic's latest developments, there's the NCR18650G at 3600mAh which is out already (and verified, although not in bare cell format). NCR18650C at 4120mAh (with higher 4.35V charging voltage) is also rumored, but no one has their hands on it yet.
While I think 110 is the next pack size the volume going to 11 is a reference to the movie Spinal Tap.
Plus, X is the 24th letter of the alphabet, and 24 in binary is 11000!
And, add up the letter positions of the following letters: E, L, O, N, M, U, S, K. Answer: 110!
Not just a businessman and scientist, he's a numerologist!
Anyway, I certainly wouldn't call 110kWh imminent, but if the Gen 3 pack can shrink by 20%, then if that can do 85kWh, in a Model S you could do 85kWh/(1-20%) = 106.25kWh
EDIT: Oh my god, Gen 3 in binary in Gen 11!
jhm
Well-Known Member
I don't see producing a 110 kWh pack as a worthy goal per se. It's range that matters. Consider that the medium pack gets 3.5 miles/kWh, and the large gets 3.1. Using the same density cells in a very large pack to get 110 kWh might only get 2.7 miles/kWh. This would get us a disappointing range of only 297 miles. This may explain why it has not been marketed. On the other hand, if through a gain in energy density, you can pack 110 kWh into a large pack with same mass as the current 85, then you get 3.1 milage for a total range of 341 miles. Now that's something to smile about. It all comes down to density gains.
We need to be asking Elon and JB when they expect to be making a higher density battery. I believe they are hinting at it, but I would like to hear something more definitive.
We need to be asking Elon and JB when they expect to be making a higher density battery. I believe they are hinting at it, but I would like to hear something more definitive.
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I believe this is the bill that calls for the 'allowance' of EV sales up to 4% of total car sales in NJ. At that threshold, all car companies MUST sell through dealers in NJ. While it would allow sales by the TM direct sales model, once the LEAF, model S and X, other EVs account for 4% of total vehicle sales then direct sales will not be allowed. It is better than nothing but just a little better.
I had always hoped it wasn't a NCR18650B already, because if the Tesla cell was a NCR18650A, then there might be an easy step up using the NCR18650B as a basis. If it was the NCR18650B already, then it means getting the NCR81650G working reliably enough which could be much harder.
In any case, we're not talking about the actual retail cells, we're talking about the underlying technology that is then built into retail cells and into Tesla's cells.
I've seen some specs for Orbitronic 3600 mAh cells that claim to be Panasonic inside - which claim 47g per cell. If that is actually the case, then we can step up about 6% without a weight penalty, which means a 90 kWh pack for the same weight and size as the existing 85 kWh pack or 280 mile EPA range.
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