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$320
I don't believe so. Of course last year the stock was just moving rapidly in general I don't remember which way it went. Last year the meeting was after market hours as well. Before that the stock wasn't as exciting as it has been this last year.
InTheShadows
Active Member
The difference this time is there are a lot of unanswered questions that a good solid answer to any one of them could result in a nice move in the stock price.
Yes, Options, especially short term ones, are a double edge sword. Good luck to all that are looking for movement from the shareholder's meeting.
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I very much hope you are wrong, from the Q1 2014 shareholder letter:
"We expect to deliver about 7,500 Model S vehicles in Q2 as we move toward our goal of more than 35,000 Model S deliveries for the year. We also plan to produce 8,500 to 9,000 cars in the quarter, representing a 13% to 19% increase over Q1."
Most definitely wrong per Ben Kallo, R.W. Baird analyst. After visiting the factory 2.5 weeks ago and observing that TM "is ahead" against their production goals and that "we have a quarter lined up very nicely for a solid beat". Based on this the production will be well north of 9,000 cars and deliveries significantly more than 7,500. Based on this and anticipated very strong second half of the year TSLA is Baird's "top pick".
Tesla top stock pick for 2014: Analyst
Even if the number of cars produced is up, if the margin is lower it may not read well regardless. I’ve been in cash since 211, slightly positive for stock purchases this past many months. The questions is, when to buy back in? Next quarter is expected to be cash flow negative and I doubt the street will react well to that. No tangible MX or confirmed GF foundation until the end of the calendar year. Is there any reason to expect value growth before MX starts shipping? I would anticipate a rise coming out of Q4 ’14 or Q1 ’15 depending on if there are more delays. Is 200 going to hold and for how long with no news? (I’m not expecting answers, just thinking out loud).
If you have gross margin in mind, why would it be lower? There is no indication of that. In fact both Elon during the shareholder's meeting and Ben Kallo were indicating that margin will slightly increase going forward. According to Elon, even with decreasing ASP.
I think $200 will hold with NO news. However, we could go down well under $200 with a real negative catalyst.....but so can any company. TSLA is a moderate risk/high potential reward company. IMHO, it used to be a high risk/high reward (a little over a year ago and right after the battery puncture issues). I am confident that it is a good long term investment (through Gen 3 ramp) at least AND if stationary storage and/or TM starts selling their completed battery packs to other companies then real long term.
Misinformation has been given regarding the timetable for selecting gigafactory sites and beginning prelimiary work.
Today's TSLA price may have been adversely affected by a reporting error that stated the gigafactory location decision has been put off until the end of the year. Please see:
http://teslamondo.com/2014/06/03/shareholder-meeting-takeaways/
It'll be interesting to see if some rebound occurs tomorrow as people realize this reported delay in gigafactory was incorrect.
Today's TSLA price may have been adversely affected by a reporting error that stated the gigafactory location decision has been put off until the end of the year. Please see:
http://teslamondo.com/2014/06/03/shareholder-meeting-takeaways/
It'll be interesting to see if some rebound occurs tomorrow as people realize this reported delay in gigafactory was incorrect.
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Chickenlittle
Banned
I suspect today's action only due to lack of earth shattering news yesterday. A lot of short term plays out there in anticipation of surprise announcement but not really much new, just steady execution of the plan. So those positions liquidated.
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