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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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#4,401
Curt Renz said:
Fellow regulars here may have noticed that short selling trolls are only seen at TMC when the stock is near the bottom of a selloff. Their greatest enemies are strong long term TSLA shareholders. Those of us who keep holding our shares make it hard for the shorts to keep forcing the price down. More so than with most companies, a large number of TSLA shareholders are in for the long haul, and quite a few are satisfied Model S owners.

The shorts should have covered at the lows, but some of them remain greedy for more. So they come to this message board populated with shareholders, and attempt to spread FUD. They call the strong longs "amateurs" and pretend to wonder why we wait so long to sell. They mock us for possibly saving shares for our heirs. They’ll do anything to shake us out of the TSLA tree. If they fail in their attempts, then their hopes for greater short term profits are doomed.

Some here say that perhaps they deserve our attention. Not when so many of their arguments are flawed. They may have been received with respect, if their statements were not interspersed with nonsense like the future prospects of a company should not be given much consideration. When the propaganda smells like FUD, ignore it. Remain confident in your own evaluation of the company and its management.
Click to expand...

+1. Well said, Curt.
 
#4,402
Curt Renz said:
Fellow regulars here may have noticed that short selling trolls are only seen at TMC when the stock is near the bottom of a selloff. Their greatest enemies are strong long term TSLA shareholders. Those of us who keep holding our shares make it hard for the shorts to keep forcing the price down. More so than with most companies, a large number of TSLA shareholders are in for the long haul, and quite a few are satisfied Model S owners.

The shorts should have covered at the lows, but some of them remain greedy for more. So they come to this message board populated with shareholders, and attempt to spread FUD. They call the strong longs "amateurs" and pretend to wonder why we wait so long to sell. They mock us for possibly saving shares for our heirs. They’ll do anything to shake us out of the TSLA tree. If they fail in their attempts, then their hopes for greater short term profits are doomed.

Some here say that perhaps they deserve our attention. Not when so many of their arguments are flawed. They may have been received with respect, if their statements were not interspersed with nonsense like the future prospects of a company should not be given much consideration. When the propaganda smells like FUD, ignore it. Remain confident in your own evaluation of the company and its management.
Click to expand...

I think that's spot on. I think collectively we're so concerned to be objective about Tesla and to not discount negative information, that we go overboard a bit to tolerate the disingenuous behavior Curt is talking about. Earlier today I was thinking I wish we had a rational, respectful TSLA skeptic here if only to prove the point that it is not a contrary point of view we take exception to, but simply the sudden flood of FUD delivered with arrogance and contempt by an individual or two. I was even thinking perhaps we should have a thread where we take turns playing devils advocate to compensate for our lack of skeptics challenging us on the real issues at hand rather than gibberish FUD meant to distract from core issues.
 
#4,403
:crying:
Curt Renz said:
Fellow regulars here may have noticed that short selling trolls are only seen at TMC when the stock is near the bottom of a selloff. Their greatest enemies are strong long term TSLA shareholders. Those of us who keep holding our shares make it hard for the shorts to keep forcing the price down. More so than with most companies, a large number of TSLA shareholders are in for the long haul, and quite a few are satisfied Model S owners.

The shorts should have covered at the lows, but some of them remain greedy for more. So they come to this message board populated with shareholders, and attempt to spread FUD. They call the strong longs "amateurs" and pretend to wonder why we wait so long to sell. They mock us for possibly saving shares for our heirs. They’ll do anything to shake us out of the TSLA tree. If they fail in their attempts, then their hopes for greater short term profits are doomed.

Some here say that perhaps they deserve our attention. Not when so many of their arguments are flawed. They may have been received with respect, if their statements were not interspersed with nonsense like the future prospects of a company should not be given much consideration. When the propaganda smells like FUD, ignore it. Remain confident in your own evaluation of the company and its management.
Click to expand...

I hope you are not accusing me of slinging FUD

This forum has so many cheerleaders (a guy was telling us Tesla's production's at 1200 cars a week any day now and everybody here is slapping his back!) that we need some less biased ones to provide balance.
 
#4,405
Curt Renz said:
I expect it to eventually become the ten-bagger for which I had long been searching. I'll wait until Tesla's Gen III really gets going, and perhaps sell my shares over a period of several years. Meanwhile, I'm experiencing a quite comfortable retirement. Friends and family are more important to me than money. I hope you will be able to feel the same someday.
Click to expand...

Curt, I've enjoyed reading your posts ever since you've joined this forum. Keep it up, if it wasn't for your advice I would have sold my shares in the 50s and waited for a dip that would have never occurred. I would have had to chase the price upwards and most likely be kicking myself along the way. I've followed this company for over two years now to learn that the louder the shorts, the more insecure they are. You're one of the classiest people I personally have never met :/ but would like that opportunity one day. I bought in the 20s and plan to hold till at least 2020, probably much longer because tesla will not be able to keep up with demand for years on out once gen 3 is created. No shorts will be able to to shake my love for this company. The shorts got lucky this time as the stock should have moved up. This was one of the best qR I've ever heard, I am looking forward to buying more on this dip next week. Hearing shorties' arguments only strengthen my beliefs in this company. The more FUD they spread, the ruder they are, the longer I'll hold. It only fuels me and I intend to take their money come q2,3 and 4, the rest of 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and beyond.. A very violent spike is just right around the corner.. Once Elon breaks ground, taking shorties' money will be swift and effortless. For all the shorts reading this and posting here, keep shorting and short some more please.

PS by the way Curt, what is the name of your book? I want to buy it as I know your investment style fits my strategy. And can I get it signed from you? I know you've made a killing on tsla and scty. Thanks.
 
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#4,406
Curt Renz said:
Fellow regulars here may have noticed that short selling trolls are only seen at TMC when the stock is near the bottom of a selloff. Their greatest enemies are strong long term TSLA shareholders. Those of us who keep holding our shares make it hard for the shorts to keep forcing the price down. More so than with most companies, a large number of TSLA shareholders are in for the long haul, and quite a few are satisfied Model S owners.

The shorts should have covered at the lows, but some of them remain greedy for more. So they come to this message board populated with shareholders, and attempt to spread FUD. They call the strong longs "amateurs" and pretend to wonder why we wait so long to sell. They mock us for possibly saving shares for our heirs. They’ll do anything to shake us out of the TSLA tree. If they fail in their attempts, then their hopes for greater short term profits are doomed.

Some here say that perhaps they deserve our attention. Not when so many of their arguments are flawed. They may have been received with respect, if their statements were not interspersed with nonsense like the future prospects of a company should not be given much consideration. When the propaganda smells like FUD, ignore it. Remain confident in your own evaluation of the company and its management.
Click to expand...

Agreed.
 
#4,407
Curt Renz said:
Some here say that perhaps they deserve our attention. Not when so many of their arguments are flawed. They may have been received with respect, if their statements were not interspersed with nonsense like the future prospects of a company should not be given much consideration. When the propaganda smells like FUD, ignore it. Remain confident in your own evaluation of the company and its management.
Click to expand...
I agree with this sentiment. It's just that there are many more silent readers of these threads than active participants, many of them experiencing acute anxiety in the pangs of doubt after being hit with an -11% drop after a good ER. I usually don't respond to the blatant ones, but some posts have an air of legitimacy that can do real damage if not called out, precisely because they flood the boards when everything looks bleak.

It may seem that reality is plain for everyone to see and the truth just floats to the top by itself, but that's a cognitive bias that lets the other side win the argument by playing fast with the facts. That's why we keep seeing panic selling after perfectly good earnings, and why we have to constantly wade through the crap pushed by the Santos, Petersens, and various Dealers Associations.

Of course, I'm not telling you anything new. I know I felt appreciative in the past when, from the sidelines, I've read clearly articulated rebuttals from you and others, be it here or on that bastion of thoughtful discussion that is Seeking Alpha. I also hate it when I see guys like Cory Johnson spouting complete nonsense on Bloomberg TV, while safe in the knowledge that he won't be challenged. Elon credited social media for helping restore sanity after the fires. Taking turns to clear the garbage floating out there serves a purpose.
 
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#4,411
> Bots and HFT systems are designed to make lots of money quickly. [poster]

They may be originally designed with that in mind but lately mostly provide needed market liquidity. This was extensively covered here recently so why the FUD?


> pangs of doubt after being hit with an -11% drop after a good ER. [poster]

This is a buying opportunity and should be viewed as such. Why reinforce this illogical stereotype? We are here to educate.


> this is a big part of why I never sell my shares. [poster]

> I recommend that most people ignore wild movements and hold their shares for a long time. [ac13.7]

Being LONG does not necessarily mean one never sells shares, that is being a 'lazy long'. Profits cannot be reinvested so grandchildren or charities greatly benefit in future? Passing up profits makes no sense; holdings should be managed. Profits are how you increase your corpus. Short term price moves ARE important to Long term investors.

Describing normal volatility as 'wild' to excuse not participating at all, ever, is a head-in-the-sand stance. If you stipulate that ER time specifically is off limits for trading stocks, then that would be understandable.
--
 
#4,413
So. What I've learned from this thread is that it's offensive to suggest trading strategies for the short term.

This thread, or board isn't for bad news. It's not for discussion. And it's not to talk about short term price movement. It's for people to gloat about how right they are and about how wrong everyone else is, all the while offering no explanations for their actions.

This poll thread, from you guys yourselves, shows that 83% of you people think that TSLA shouldn't be focused on beating their own guidance. One of you guys link me a post that suggested that TSLA were going to deliver 6400 cars BEFORE Q12014 ER. I beg you please. Link one that shows it even went through your thought process. YOU caused the 11% drop, it wasn't the streets expectations that had to be beat, it was YOURS. Everyone was thinking at the LEAST 6800, and even LIKELY that 7600 cars were going to get delivered.

This hypocrisy only shows that NONE of the people on this board understand whats going on. You guys blame "shorts" for trading down on down days and collecting on profits short term, "they" are wrong, "they" are slinging FUD, "we" longs know whats up, "we've" been right all this time and doing anything else is obviously the wrong move.

Yet you guys were all FINE with suggesting buying calls before the ER. If I buy calls and sell them through the week am I an evil "short"? If I thought that next week was going to be a recovery and that you should buy some calls now, would you guys be offended?

The fact of the matter, is that IT'S OK to think short term. And IT's OK for people to trade short term, unless its down, then you are just wrong.

So make it what you guys will. If its not ok for people to discuss trading in a "Short-Term Price Movement" thread, then I suggest the mods sticky a post for JUST Short Term Trading. Because the only discussion I get from longs on this is that "It's going up", unless it actually goes down, then their only explanation is that "the market is just misunderstanding TSLA, HFT's did it, hedge funds did it". Which doesn't contribute to the discussion at all, only to the circlejerk.

I've gotten a few PMs from people thinking the same thing. This community doesn't show respect to dissent, it shows hostility.
 
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#4,414
> You are responding to a fraction of a sentence, only to restate what my full post advocates. [FRhino]

Your advocacy is so muted and nuanced it is almost invisible! We need to be very clear here as readers are very impressionable, emotional and easily lead astray. They do not always start at the beginning of the thread and take good notes.

If most readers are silent, how do we know what they think? We can only guess, and if we are guessing that their emotional reactions are wrong, we should make that clear. That they should view short term price movements from a long term perspective.
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#4,415
wycolo said:
> You are responding to a fraction of a sentence, only to restate what my full post advocates. [FRhino]

Your advocacy is so muted and nuanced it is almost invisible! We need to be very clear here as readers are very impressionable, emotional and easily lead astray. They do not always start at the beginning of the thread and take good notes.

If most readers are silent, how do we know what they think? We can only guess, and if we are guessing that their emotional reactions are wrong, we should make that clear. That they should view short term price movements from a long term perspective.
--
Click to expand...
There are many kinds of readers, and different styles work for different people.
 
#4,416
I am a very basic investor and just buy a few stocks. But when I buy I always buy with a 5+ year horizon as I am not smart enough or lucky enough to pick short term trends. So with my 5 year view do I see Tesla still making a significant difference in the inevitable mover to EV's. My answer is yes so I am holding.

I asked the same thing of Solar City, Sun Power and Canadian Solar. As such I try not to look at my value more than quarterly.

PS I really wish the USA would add a speculation tax on any security held less than 6 month and to gradually extend the capital gains to only cover holdings over 5 years. To me anything less is speculation. Such a tax rate should also return the stock market for those who invest rather than those who gamble.

So here are the thoughts of one of those silent investors.
 
#4,417
Cwin said:
So. What I've learned from this thread is that it's offensive to suggest trading strategies for the short term.
Click to expand...

I don't feel this way at all. But there should be no problem with spirited and passionate discussion as long as we aren't attacking the messenger. I understand that some feel that TSLA is going to trade down or even should be at a much lower price. I have no problem with that at all or people employing short term strategies as a hedge or outright profit. But you have to expect defense of the long position in this forum, right?
 
#4,418
> To me anything less is speculation. [dhrivnak]

Trade half of your TSLA holding to take advantage of major price shifts. Add the profits back to your holdings. Over time this significantly increases corpus as opposed to simply making new purchases (which is apparently all you allow yourself to do). There is a multiplier effect going on here. Besides, one of your 5 stocks should be a speculative stock anyway to keep you interested in your portfolio. Whether TSLA is a spec or not is open to question.

If the stock ends up in 5 years at the same (adjusted) price, then you would at least have increased the holding by taking advantage of the ups and downs.
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#4,419
techmaven said:
I don't feel this way at all. But there should be no problem with spirited and passionate discussion as long as we aren't attacking the messenger. I understand that some feel that TSLA is going to trade down or even should be at a much lower price. I have no problem with that at all or people employing short term strategies as a hedge or outright profit. But you have to expect defense of the long position in this forum, right?
Click to expand...

A "defense" is more than just stating how wrong someone is, but also giving facts and evidence to support how right you are.

Its easy to say that TSLA will go up long term. There isn't any evidence to the contrary. But there is plenty of things that can go wrong short term, ala Q1 & Q3. Each time "longs" give the patriotic hurrah only to be disappointed when TSLA doesn't meet their expectations, so what happens when the next Q1 or Q3 comes around? Have "longs" learned anything new from their "discussions" as to what happened? No. So plenty of people are going to get burned buying calls when they should have taken a critical approach.

This board isn't interested in learning. They just want to bash anyone willing to have the balls to make predictions after everything happens.
 
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