Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Norse]

In a report published today, Baird Equity Research’s Ben Kallo raised his price target on Tesla Motors (TSLA) to $275 from $245 “after travelling with management”. He reiterates his “Outperform” rating on Tesla Motors (TSLA).
“We reiterate our Outperform rating and are increasing our price target to $275 after traveling with management. We left our meetings incrementally positive on TSLA’s ability to meet guidance of 35,000 Model S deliveries in 2014, and have expanded our earnings multiple due to opportunities in stationary storage” Ben Kallo said
“Our price target is based on 38x our 2016E non-GAAP EPS of $7.25. We have expanded our multiple based on increasing opportunities for TSLA’s battery technology and believe our multiple is valid when compared to other technology and consumer category creators currently trading at a mean of 37x. Our blue sky price target of $350 is based on 2020 automotive and storage unit sales estimates. In our bull case for TSLA, we believe the company will achieve 15% operating margin and will sell 350k Gen III, 75k Model S, and 75k Model X vehicles while using 15GWh of batteries for stationary storage units.” he added
Shares of Tesla Motors (TSLA) closed at $230.97 on Friday.

http://www.theeconomicdaily.com/201...as-price-target-to-275-reiterates-outperform/

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note: some posts were moved to Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA), in whole or in part.

 

[FluxCap]

U.S. manufacturing output posts largest gain in six months

This is very good news and lends credence to the theory that the larger than expected negative economic indicators from earlier this year were in fact due to temporary winter weather-related events, and not broader weakness.

Looking like a global mini-short-queeze this morning as the bears get much less bad news than they hoped for across the board.

VIX / VXX taking a beating, gold down, safety stocks down.

Everything else up.

Edit: things are drifting downward from morning's 10am highs at the moment. It looks like the US and EU announced sanctions around 10am, which apparently spooked the market to some degree. These sanctions were widely expected in US, but perhaps not by the entire market.

Baird upgrade didn't send TSLA up like a rocket the way Morgan Stanley upgrade did, but still positive movement.

 

[techmaven]

An Mercedes Benz dealer rep just gave an interview on CNBC. He sounded idiotic and couldn't really articulate why his business should have special protections other than saying that it should. He couldn't draw the distinction that Tesla has no franchises in the U.S. to protect. The CNBC interviewers pressed him a little, but then backed off. In any case, TSLA started to move up while he spoke. This basically gave Tesla free good press.

I'm thinking that there is an argument to be made that Tesla is so good, that the competitors have to try to ban it rather than try to compete against it. Tell people that they can't have something by legislating it away, and that should only help create a greater mystique and therefore bigger demand.

 

[xhawk101]

An Mercedes Benz dealer rep just gave an interview on CNBC. He sounded idiotic and couldn't really articulate why his business should have special protections other than saying that it should. He couldn't draw the distinction that Tesla has no franchises in the U.S. to protect. The CNBC interviewers pressed him a little, but then backed off. In any case, TSLA started to move up while he spoke. This basically gave Tesla free good press.

I'm thinking that there is an argument to be made that Tesla is so good, that the competitors have to try to ban it rather than try to compete against it. Tell people that they can't have something by legislating it away, and that should only help create a greater mystique and therefore bigger demand.

Agree totally

 

[Mario Kadastik]

A NY Times article that is I think to most extent Tesla positive so this could generate some good news

Log In - The New York Times

 

[Norse]

RESEARCH ALERT-Tesla Motors: Goldman Sachs establishes new target price of $200

 

[erha]

In Paris all cars with number plates that ends with an even number are banned from the streets. Electric cars are of course allowed to drive no matter what license plate they carry

 

[techmaven]

RESEARCH ALERT-Tesla Motors: Goldman Sachs establishes new target price of $200

So usually GS price targets should be doubled, so $400 is pretty good.

 

[TSLAopt]

So usually GS price targets should be doubled, so $400 is pretty good.

I don't know about you guys, but I love this price action. Consolidation is a necessary step before we make another run at significant new ATHs. This is healthy what we have been going through.

In terms of short term movements...the implied vol on options should be deteriorating the longer we slowly consolidate and stay in this 230ish range.

For me, I am highly interested in finding the short interest update a week from today to confirm my suspicions that short interest is now at all time new highs after the surprisingly high reading from last weeks update. If so and if the stock has stayed in this 230-240 range for another week helping to keep options implied vol lower than usual...then in my view it would be a perfect storm for a new option trade....buying OTM calls. I will probably sell shares in my IRA to buy a bunch of calls if this scenario comes to fruition next week. I'd really like to get the soonest options for after Q2 earnings report as I think that could be a blowout report with great guidance for 2nd half of the year.

 

[AlMc]

I don't know about you guys, but I love this price action. Consolidation is a necessary step before we make another run at significant new ATHs. This is healthy what we have been going through.

In terms of short term movements...the implied vol on options should be deteriorating the longer we slowly consolidate and stay in this 230ish range.

For me, I am highly interested in finding the short interest update a week from today to confirm my suspicions that short interest is now at all time new highs after the surprisingly high reading from last weeks update. If so and if the stock has stayed in this 230-240 range for another week helping to keep options implied vol lower than usual...then in my view it would be a perfect storm for a new option trade....buying OTM calls. I will probably sell shares in my IRA to buy a bunch of calls if this scenario comes to fruition next week. I'd really like to get the soonest options for after Q2 earnings report as I think that could be a blowout report with great guidance for 2nd half of the year.

I agree that the consolidation, in light of no positive catalyst, is a good thing. Since buying options is all about timing my dilemma is that I expect the market to react negatively to the Q1ER despite Elon's guidance that there may be 1,000 cars produced, in transit/not delivered because of a change in philosophy. Old philosophy was 'gaming' numbers a bit by selling all loaners/produce overseas cars first part of quarter and domestic second half of the quarter to make sure production closely matched deliveries.

So, if I follow this logic, then the time to buy options for Q2Er and beyond might be after Q1ER???

I already hold significant LEAP positions but have shied away from weeklies/mid term as I can not read these tea leaves (easy tea leaves to read: Detroit Auto Show and Q4ER.)

 

[Lump]

Today's Goldman Sachs research note Tsla Goldman

 

[TSLAopt]

I agree that the consolidation, in light of no positive catalyst, is a good thing. Since buying options is all about timing my dilemma is that I expect the market to react negatively to the Q1ER despite Elon's guidance that there may be 1,000 cars produced, in transit/not delivered because of a change in philosophy. Old philosophy was 'gaming' numbers a bit by selling all loaners/produce overseas cars first part of quarter and domestic second half of the quarter to make sure production closely matched deliveries.

So, if I follow this logic, then the time to buy options for Q2Er and beyond might be after Q1ER???

I already hold significant LEAP positions but have shied away from weeklies/mid term as I can not read these tea leaves (easy tea leaves to read: Detroit Auto Show and Q4ER.)

i agree...but think the only problem there is there is too much of a chance I see TSLA reacting positively to Q1 ER just from guidance for Q2 and updates on Giga Factory (ie. Partners and location possibly). If after Q2 the stock goes down further I'd buy more...so I may just buy half the options next week and then the 2nd half after Q1 if the stock goes down from it.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Today's Goldman Sachs research note Tsla Goldman

I have a feeling that this report will prove to be a catalyst that moves TSLA up significantly.

On page 4 of the report it assigns 8.3% chance that Tesla current valuation is $329 (Appliances analogy), 8.3% for current valuation of $442 (iPhone), 8.3% for current valuation of $478 (Ford Model T analogy). Even if these likelihoods are taken without questions asked (although I am sure that plenty of questions could be asked by those frequenting this Forum :wink I think that a lot of investors WILL take a chance at the huge disruption that Tesla might represent according to the Goldman report.

 

[AlMc]

i agree...but think the only problem there is there is too much of a chance I see TSLA reacting positively to Q1 ER just from guidance for Q2 and updates on Giga Factory (ie. Partners and location possibly). If after Q2 the stock goes down further I'd buy more...so I may just buy half the options next week and then the 2nd half after Q1 if the stock goes down from it.

Solid advice and certainly a way of hedging one's position

 

[SteveG3]

Today's Goldman Sachs research note Tsla Goldman

Lump, greatly appreciate the link!

 

[TSLAopt]

Solid advice and certainly a way of hedging one's position

Yeah...only problem is that opportunity may never come up now if the consolidation is over and we have another couple days like today.
Cramer now saying tonight that TSLA is the new AAPL after he read the GS report...I could see these record shorts start running for the hills which could push us up to new ATHs sooner than we think....like end of this week or next week potentially even I think if the short bubble really pops/squeezes here.....that will happen, if not now then at some point...these record shorts won't be able to get out of their positions quietly, that's for sure.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Yeah...only problem is that opportunity may never come up now if the consolidation is over and we have another couple days like today.
Cramer now saying tonight that TSLA is the new AAPL after he read the GS report...I could see these record shorts start running for the hills which could push us up to new ATHs sooner than we think....like end of this week or next week potentially even I think if the short bubble really pops/squeezes here.....that will happen, if not now then at some point...these record shorts won't be able to get out of their positions quietly, that's for sure.

At what point do the shorts have nowhere to hide as far as having some analyst reports on their side?

Goldman was skeptical and kept a low price target for a long time… and now they look convinced that TSLA is worth a high price. Is Bank of America the last major holdout?

 

[aznt1217]

At what point do the shorts have nowhere to hide as far as having some analyst reports on their side?

Goldman was skeptical and kept a low price target for a long time… and now they look convinced that TSLA is worth a high price. Is Bank of America the last major holdout?

No I think Goldman is still being conservative, they are saying too much is CURRENTLY priced in. Truthfully, if everything was fairly priced, the stock market would be the bond market. There's fair value and then then the dimension of buyers and sellers. Right now the real question is how many shorts are there that are really just wanting blood for what they lost or have gotten too emotional-- answer is way too many. The psychological aspect is too great. They will just continue to pile in.

 

[kenliles]

At what point do the shorts have nowhere to hide as far as having some analyst reports on their side?

Goldman was skeptical and kept a low price target for a long time… and now they look convinced that TSLA is worth a high price. Is Bank of America the last major holdout?

that's an excellent ?. my own view is they will continue until GenIII is a given, Giga-Factory no longer in question, which will correlate to SC network completion- thus I see the bulk of shorts exiting next year throughout the year. I believe 2015 will be a very transformational year for TSLA investing