Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Causalien]

I think it is because Yellen said that interest rates may rise around six months from now, which is a lot sooner than the market expected.

That's funny. I don't think it's that much earlier. From the first time tapering was mentioned last october at the FOMC meeting. If you calculate the amount of tapering x # of fed meetings. You arrive at September for tapering to make QE 0 per month. Which means the next step is to raise interest rates... or am I the only one who did this calculation?

 

[aznt1217]

That's funny. I don't think it's that much earlier. From the first time tapering was mentioned last october at the FOMC meeting. If you calculate the amount of tapering x # of fed meetings. You arrive at September for tapering to make QE 0 per month. Which means the next step is to raise interest rates... or am I the only one who did this calculation?

You are exactly correct. It was definitely coming, but just a delayed reaction and had to be priced in. The exuberance in the overall market has been very high.

 

[farzyness]

Arizona bill will allow Tesla to sell direct to customers.

Arizona bill would allow Tesla to skip dealers - Yahoo Finance

 

[sleepyhead]

I think it is because Yellen said that interest rates may rise around six months from now, which is a lot sooner than the market expected.

What I should have said was that rates will rise "about six months" from the date that QE goes down to zero. Therefore, the target rate will stay at 0 for at least another 12 months.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Has anyone read this Seeking Alpha article? Leaving aside the general anti-Tesla bias of that site, is there any chance there is weaker-than-expected demand for the Model S in Europe (except for Norway)?

The author has a clear bearish view of TSLA, but I'm trying to correct for bias and see if there is anything left of his argument that is worth considering (I am afraid of self-deception and blind spots when it comes to the companies I like.)

His main claim is that the recent research reports from Baird and Goldman are intended to achieve a "soft-landing" for the TSLA stock price, by burying the worrying details pointing to a short-term demand peak (Q1+Q2) among optimistic long-term estimates. Is it likely that there's something there? Or are Baird's numbers really off, notwithstanding their "travel with management", because of the deliveries in transit to China? (but then, there's this online site listing several brand new Model S cars available for sale, which is weird.)

What do others think?

 

[FluxCap]

Has anyone read this Seeking Alpha article? Leaving aside the general anti-Tesla bias of that site, is there any chance there is weaker-than-expected demand for the Model S in Europe (except for Norway)?

The author has a clear bearish view of TSLA, but I'm trying to correct for bias and see if there is anything left of his argument that is worth considering (I am afraid of self-deception and blind spots when it comes to the companies I like.)

His main claim is that the recent research reports from Baird and Goldman are intended to achieve a "soft-landing" for the TSLA stock price, by burying the worrying details pointing to a short-term demand peak (Q1+Q2) among optimistic long-term estimates. Is it likely that there's something there? Or are Baird's numbers really off, notwithstanding their "travel with management", because of the deliveries in transit to China? (but then, there's this online site listing several brand new Model S cars available for sale, which is weird.)

What do others think?

Notwithstanding the fact that Seeking Mediocrity is an ad revenue farm that produces fear/clickbait junk news and listicles written by people paid a few hundred dollars to generate clicks without regard to anything resembling journalism: any article that discusses demand for Tesla Motors products as a near-term risk is either ignorant of the facts or deliberately misleading. There has been a massive, growing waiting list for all of Tesla Motors' products since at least year and a half ago, and this trend shows no signs of changing. Tesla Motors literally cannot build enough products fast enough to satisfy massive global demand.

I for one will keep making money on this statistical ignorance, as I hope you will too.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Notwithstanding the fact that Seeking Mediocrity is an ad revenue farm that produces fear/clickbait junk news and listicles written by people paid a few hundred dollars to generate clicks without regard to anything resembling journalism: any article that discusses demand for Tesla Motors products as a near-term risk is either ignorant of the facts or deliberately misleading. There has been a massive, growing waiting list for all of Tesla Motors' products since at least year and a half ago, and this trend shows no signs of changing. Tesla Motors literally cannot build enough products fast enough to satisfy massive global demand.

I for one will keep making money on this statistical ignorance, as I hope you will too.

That's what I also think, which is why I'm keeping my LEAPS. Just want to make sure I'm not missing anything.

 

[PeterJA]

What do others think?

1) I've been reading Paulo's articles and comments about Tesla for six months. Based on that, I don't believe a word he says.

2) Tesla's sales in Europe are just getting started. Norway sales are ahead because Norway was the first to get Superchargers and Norway has great government incentives. But other nations will catch up as more cars are delivered there and word-of-mouth spreads. Tesla relies heavily on word-of-mouth, and that takes time to build. But when it does, it builds exponentially.

 

[dalalsid]

Has anyone read this Seeking Alpha article? Leaving aside the general anti-Tesla bias of that site, is there any chance there is weaker-than-expected demand for the Model S in Europe (except for Norway)?

The author has a clear bearish view of TSLA, but I'm trying to correct for bias and see if there is anything left of his argument that is worth considering (I am afraid of self-deception and blind spots when it comes to the companies I like.)

His main claim is that the recent research reports from Baird and Goldman are intended to achieve a "soft-landing" for the TSLA stock price, by burying the worrying details pointing to a short-term demand peak (Q1+Q2) among optimistic long-term estimates. Is it likely that there's something there? Or are Baird's numbers really off, notwithstanding their "travel with management", because of the deliveries in transit to China? (but then, there's this online site listing several brand new Model S cars available for sale, which is weird.)

What do others think?

The same author has repeated the same claim and written several identical articles taking data out of context. TSLA is one of the most followed stocks on seekingalpha so it encourages the mass production of useless articles (not that mine are :wink: ).

P.S. My worst article on Tesla got the most visits.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

... Tesla relies heavily on word-of-mouth, and that takes time to build. But when it does, it builds exponentially.

this, exactly. I don't know many people that don't want a Tesla...I(we) want a second one. My co worker told me this morning that he used to think he liked his truck...not anymore(he bought his wife an S before X-mas after seeing mine for a year)

 

[The Blue Owl]

1) I've been reading Paulo's articles and comments about Tesla for six months. Based on that, I don't believe a word he says.

Thanks. I'm not familiar with this guy and I didn't know what discount factor to apply.

2) Tesla's sales in Europe are just getting started. Norway sales are ahead because Norway was the first to get Superchargers and Norway has great government incentives. But other nations will catch up as more cars are delivered there and word-of-mouth spreads. Tesla relies heavily on word-of-mouth, and that takes time to build. But when it does, it builds exponentially.

I agree, it's what you'd expect to see on word-of-mouth only. Lack of incentives in other countries may influence demand somewhat, but it's not the incentives that sell this car, it's driving it.

I'm still curious what that online listing is, but I'm not worried.

 

[eepic]

Thanks. I'm not familiar with this guy and I didn't know what discount factor to apply.



I agree, it's what you'd expect to see on word-of-mouth only. Lack of incentives in other countries may influence demand somewhat, but it's not the incentives that sell this car, it's driving it.

I'm still curious what that online listing is, but I'm not worried.

Paulo has some particularly poor arguments. In this case, he harps about inconsistencies between production and deliveries when it's very clear they are not the same thing. It could easily be explained that there are going to be more cars in transit (on a boat) during the quarter than previously expected, which would precisely mean a dip in deliveries followed by a huge surge.

 

[MartinAustin]

There has been a massive, growing waiting list for all of Tesla Motors' products since at least year and a half ago

Fluxcap, just to make sure we're not spouting the same B.S. as Seeking Mediocrity, where do you get your information for the statement above?

I haven't noticed figures getting published too often.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Paulo has some particularly poor arguments. In this case, he harps about inconsistencies between production and deliveries when it's very clear they are not the same thing. It could easily be explained that there are going to be more cars in transit (on a boat) during the quarter than previously expected, which would precisely mean a dip in deliveries followed by a huge surge.

Right, deliveries to Asia in particular were what I thought would explain that discrepancy. He did gloss over the dramatic increase in deliveries from Q3 onwards (which he actually quotes from the Baird report), which is consistent with filling the delivery buffers, as you mention.

Added on edit: in fact, it's more likely that the massive ramp-up from Q2 to Q3 is due to Panasonic resolving their production constraints, rather than filling delivery pipelines.

 

[FluxCap]

Fluxcap, just to make sure we're not spouting the same B.S. as Seeking Mediocrity, where do you get your information for the statement above?

I haven't noticed figures getting published too often.

Personally, I rely on published quarterly guidance and Elon's own words first, and the Model X Reservation Tally and various threads such as the Model S Order and Delivery tracker for additional data.

 

[SteveG3]

1) I've been reading Paulo's articles and comments about Tesla for six months. Based on that, I don't believe a word he says.

I've had the same conclusion of PeterJA re Paulo's articles over many months of seeing his stories.

and as you've now mentioned Rhino, that Baird report Paulo tries to twist into soft demand has a massive increase in revenues in Q3 and Q4 2014, with Q3 sales projected to be up 53% over Q2 sales. just a sample of why I agree with PeterJA... I don't believe a word Paulo says about Tesla.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Also, I think a good indicator is that while Tesla has been ramping up production and squeezing out more and more cars every quarter, their balance sheet for reservation money is going up and at a rapid pace. They do list the total amount of millions from customer deposits and that number is something I've followed at least the last 2-3 quarters and it keeps going up even though it should remain semi-flat or drop if there was a peak in demand. No way is there a peak, the demand is going up faster than they can produce cars.

 

[dalalsid]

Fluxcap, just to make sure we're not spouting the same B.S. as Seeking Mediocrity, where do you get your information for the statement above?

I haven't noticed figures getting published too often.

It is easy to tell from their customer deposits going up in spite of increased deliveries each quarter. I did calculations of backlog in one of my SA articles but I'm not allowed to link it here.

 

[The Blue Owl]

So then, to entertain a bit of speculation, will the market create an opportunity for a short-term call play before Q1, due to wide misreading of these delivery numbers? In such a scenario, the guidance Tesla might provide on that ER call could trigger another squeeze.

 

[FluxCap]

So then, to entertain a bit of speculation, will the market create an opportunity for a short-term call play before Q1, due to wide misreading of these delivery numbers? In such a scenario, the guidance Tesla might provide on that ER call could trigger another squeeze.

If I could answer that with certainty, I'd be retired already. It's impossible to adequately predict movements leading up to May's Q1 ER this far out, as that is an eternity in "Tesla time" let alone market time. We are also dealing with significant macroeconomic headwinds that could negatively impact the entire market if they remain unresolved (i.e. Putin).

That said, if you analyze the pattern of Elon's release of good news about Tesla Motors over the last year, the performance of the company, and the massive short interest, you could reasonably expect there is money to be made in the medium term betting on TSLA.