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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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Why you buy today? It looks to me the momentum is not strong.

The effect of Elon's tweets showed how much upside potential there is for TSLA which, while being a great long-term play, is still strongly affected by short-term news events. When there is no news, it sort of drifts around. When there is actual concrete news, it goes the right way without hesitation.

Yesterday saw a fairly strong drop due to (IMO) people taking profits after the amazing jump on Tuesday. => a great time to pick up more stock IMO.

The tweet showed some concrete evidence of strong earnings results next Wednesday, ending worries about production shortfalls caused by the assembly line upgrades, and Causalien obviously wants to be a part of what happens on Thursday next week before it drifts up too much more.

And finally, it's still about $50 lower than the all-time high, so there's that.

A nice pop started about 1:45pm... perhaps we can close above $240 ?
 
Why you buy today? It looks to me the momentum is not strong.
You guys are mistaken... It took 3 days for my limit buy order to complete.

This pic sums up the struggle to make this decision.

san marino.jpg
 
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I think this is it, Dave: Ron Baron - Tesla Motors: Built to Last

Ron Baron – Tesla Motors: Built to Last

“We are not currently showing all our cards.” That was Chairman Elon Musk’s memorable comment on Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s second quarter 2014 earnings conference call. He then told investors that by the end of 2015, Tesla would be producing cars at a rate of 100,000 per year. That translates to $10 billion in annual sales with potential after-tax profits of $2 billion, if Tesla were not penalizing its profits in its bid to grow five times as large by 2020. Elon hinted at something more to come. He was true to his word. On October 9th, he announced that four wheel drive and really cool new autonomous driving technology was being added to Tesla cars, making them even safer than they already are.

We are a fan of Tesla’s business and of Elon Musk. One competitive advantage that we think will make Tesla “built to last” and all of us likely Tesla customers in 25 years, is that its competitors are being compelled to build and sell electric cars. They do not want to build such cars. As a result, they are developing electric expertise so slowly that the lead Tesla has built up through its fast growing staff of Silicon Valley engineers may soon become nearly insurmountable. Car companies don’t want to build electric cars because their existing plants that make engines, transmissions and drive trains would become “stranded assets.” Their unions don’t want electric cars since they are simpler to manufacture than cars with internal combustion engines (ICE), which means fewer factory assembly workers. Dealers don’t want electric cars, either. Tesla bypasses franchised dealers to sell its cars directly to consumers. Franchised car dealers also make a lot more money servicing cars than selling new ones. Tesla cars need less service than ICE cars. A standard ICE automobile has more than 2,000 moving parts. Tesla cars have 18 moving parts!

Tesla’s culture is far different from that of other car companies. Tesla’s mission is to build the planet’s best AND safest automobile. Tesla’s car also happens to be best for the environment. The following says all we need to know about Tesla’s culture and why the best engineers in Silicon Valley want to work there. When Tesla began to manufacture its cars, its inspection process was not as strong as it needed to be. Elon then conducted line inspections personally until his fellow workers understood exactly how he wanted the process to work. Elon next moved his drafting table to the middle of the manufacturing floor to write software with his engineers. That was to make sure everyone knew how important the quality of the product was to him. Our kind of chairman, that is for sure. Our kind of culture, in which every employee does whatever it takes to provide Tesla customers with the best product possible.

One more thing. While many car companies doubt electric cars will ultimately represent a large portion of new car sales, BMW (XTER:BMW) is not one of those companies. Two of our research analysts recently visited BMW’s headquarters in Munich, as well as its electric vehicle and carbon fiber assembly plants in Leipzig, Germany, and its battery pack assembly plant and research facility in Dingolfing, Germany. The BMW financial team believes a revolution in drive train is underway. We believe that BMW will likely phase out internal combustion engines over the next 10 years!
 
I really like that last line, "We believe that BMW will likely phase out internal combustion engines over the next 10 years!" I would take seriously any co-conspirator who is willing to divest their ICE business within the span of 10 years. They all claim they can make an EV, but none have said they are working to ditch ICE. I wish BMW the very best.
 
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