Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[FluxCap]

I'm showing an abnormally large single intraday order of 22,405 shares on my TD Ameritrade feed just now...at $243.07. That size of an order usually comes at beginning or end of day at this broker, so to me this is significant.

Quite a day indeed.

 

[Noble Ninja]

I think we may be witnessing a media melt down. Incoherent FUD everywhere. Even Fortune is euphemistically calling Musk a liar in a pathetic effort to defend the honor of the WSJ. I don't care who the contributors are; editors at WSJ, Fortune and elsewhere need to be fired. The lack of journalistic professionalism is appalling and a blight on the reputations of their respective media organizations. I do not comprehend what sort of pressure is being brought to bear on these organizations to cause them to blemish their good names in such a way.

My guess is money can make people talk and someone is being compensated handsomely for the FUD spreading for hedge funds and shorts. I wouldn't be surprised if it were true.

Any new predictions of end-of-day price?

I'm guessing just sightly above $240

We have retaken the 20day MA! (239) Next stop is the 50 day at 254.

Looks about right. We are now at $240, which is back to just before the "Unveil the D" tweet on October 2nd (almost 4 weeks ago), and looking forward to $254, which is back to just before the market started its downturn in late September (little over a month ago).

 

[mejojo]

I'm guessing just sightly above $240

Pulled out 400 shares at 243, thinking I really need to figure out options....

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note

Some posts discussing accounting practices of other auto OEMs were moved to 2014 Q3 Data Points Estimates

 

[xhawk101]

kicking myself i didnt buy at 222. was a click away...

Correct, hockeythug. Despite this being addressed on every CC recently. Like someone said yesterday, all it shows is that the broader market still doesn't understand tesla, which still gives us the advantage. When everyone starts understanding tesla, that's when it's time to de-leverage your positions in the company. That time has not come yet.

This...agree. by knowing this forum and company I was rather confident buying at 222 yesterday with the obvious disinformation from the haters or oblivious.

 

[jhm]

Yeah, just another Tesla Tuesday. Oh, well.

 

[Causalien]

We are closing the $257 gap before ER

 

[austinEV]

We are closing the $257 gap before ER

I was thinking the same thing, if just for symmetry.

 

[Jeeps17]

kicking myself i didnt buy at 222. was a click away...

You are not alone there...

 

[chickensevil]

kicking myself i didnt buy at 222. was a click away...

You are not alone there...

Seriously guys, stop trying to chase the bottom. You had all day yesterday and plenty of time today to buy at a good price. I have long been saying you should strongly consider buying if we hit the 220s. I can't in good faith recommend a 240+ buy with the Q3 ER looming and still uncertain, but if your timelines are right this baby still has plenty of room to grow and as Elon stated a couple months ago, short term... the price is uncertain. Long term, I would still rate this as a buy.

This frustrates me because I know we have people who read but don't post very often (if at all), and I realize I am not your financial adviser, but it makes me sad to see people miss out on a good opportunity.

 

[dmunjal]

Ward's analyst explaining his numbers on CNBC.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000325288

Seems he's still defending them but still missing the larger point of WW sales.

 

[Jeeps17]

Seriously guys, stop trying to chase the bottom. You had all day yesterday and plenty of time today to buy at a good price. I have long been saying you should strongly consider buying if we hit the 220s. I can't in good faith recommend a 240+ buy with the Q3 ER looming and still uncertain, but if your timelines are right this baby still has plenty of room to grow and as Elon stated a couple months ago, short term... the price is uncertain. Long term, I would still rate this as a buy.

This frustrates me because I know we have people who read but don't post very often (if at all), and I realize I am not your financial adviser, but it makes me sad to see people miss out on a good opportunity.

Don't worry about me !

I was just noting that I also thought about buying more shares yesterday, but got caught up at work and could not.

No biggie, I remain a long in for the duration (since $33).

Be that as it may, kudos to those who locked in some profit. If only I had time to get into options !

 

[chickensevil]

Ward's analyst explaining his numbers on CNBC.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000325288

Seems he's still defending them but still missing the larger point of WW sales.

He refused to say that their estimate was a negative number in Sept... And his WW sales info is stated as only up 8% YTD, that seems like a very bad estimate as well...

 

[dmunjal]

He refused to say that their estimate was a negative number in Sept... And his WW sales info is stated as only up 8% YTD, that seems like a very bad estimate as well...

He admitted it was "an order of magnitude." Why should I believe the rest of it?

 

[SteveG3]

Editor from Ward's on CNBC, trying to make case WSJ article was basically valid

Teslas numbers game | Watch the video - Yahoo Finance

pretty silly, for instance,

1. CNBC: (paraphrasing) "So when your numbers and Tesla's don't match what Tesla said they actually did, do you mean something like Tesla 65%, Ward's 62%, or are you talking something big like Tesla 65% Ward's 40%"

Ward's Editor then avoids giving numbers at all costs... because it's Tesla +65%, Ward's -8% which basically shows the Ward's estimate to be meaningless, and basically undermines any numbers they give whether for September or YTD.

And...

2. Ward's Editor tries to make the point that September alone really is not what to focus on but rather YTD, where he says globally Tesla is up 8% through September. Well, everyone on this board knows last year Tesla delivered a little over 22K vehicles, and this year, the first three quarters have roughly totaled that same 22K. If Tesla's 2013 deliveries were spread equally among the 4 quarters, they'd be up 33% YTD, not 8%. fwiw, the way the 2013 deliveries were actually spread, IIRC, more in the 4th quarter than the other quarters averaged, Tesla is up even more than 33% YTD. Ward's numbers are just meaningless. Either through lack of interest or politeness, no one on the media thus far has called them on this.

postscipt: wow, a lot can get posted in two minutes!

 

[chickensevil]

Don't worry about me !

I was just noting that I also thought about buying more shares yesterday, but got caught up at work and could not. No biggie.

I get that feeling, I have had some pretty busy days at work as well. I feel slightly better now, thanks

 

[chickensevil]

He admitted it was "an order of magnitude." Why should I believe the rest of it?

+1 I am right there with you! At least InsideEVs has been sorta close in their estimates (as far as I can remember) and then they go back and fix their data as best they can after the ER. I don't think I would ever trust Ward's

Editor from Ward's on CNBC, trying to make case WSJ article was basically valid

Teslas numbers game | Watch the video - Yahoo Finance

pretty silly, for instance,

1. CNBC: (paraphrasing) "So when your numbers and Tesla's don't match what Tesla said they actually did, do you mean something like Tesla 65%, Ward's 62%, or are you talking something big like Tesla 65% Ward's 40%"

Ward's Editor then avoids giving numbers at all costs... because it's Tesla +65%, Ward's -8% which basically shows the Ward's estimate to be meaningless, and basically undermines any numbers they give whether for September or YTD.

And...

2. Ward's Editor tries to make the point that September alone really is not what to focus on but rather YTD, where he says globally Tesla is up 8% through September. Well, everyone on this board knows last year Tesla delivered a little over 22K vehicles, and this year, the first three quarters have roughly totaled that same 22K. If Tesla's 2013 deliveries were spread equally among the 4 quarters, they'd be up 33% YTD, not 8%. fwiw, the way the 2013 deliveries were actually spread, IIRC, more in the 4th quarter than the other quarters averaged, Tesla is up even more than 33% YTD. Ward's numbers are just meaningless. Either through lack of interest or politeness, no one on the media thus far has called them on this.

postscipt: wow, a lot can get posted in two minutes!

Thanks for the YTD correction here because that was my thoughts I just didn't feel inclined to pull out all the previous numbers to shoot it down. So thank you!

- - - Updated - - -

I did not buy yesterday at $222 because I bought 2 weeks ago at $220. Am I disappointed? No. My next price point is $210. If we never get there, would I be dissappointed? Absolutely not, I'd be delighted. For some reason I just prefer to buy as the price goes down, roughly every $10.

I wouldn't be upset about that at all. I just remember many people expressing the sentiment that they "missed" the 230's (briefly touching the 220's) on the first downturn and then the second where we went into the 220's and touched the 210's... so I was sad to see people post they had "missed" the opportunity to buy since this is basically the 3rd time we have come back down to these levels. I would not be betting on Q3 ER to be so bad as to cause the price to substantially drop, or you would be planning for a MUCH lower number than 220 if that happens. I think at this point the sentiment after/during the ER would have to be REALLY BAD to cause us to lose the 230's again... I don't even want to think about it. So yeah, You bought at an excellent price

 

[jhm]

Re Numbers Game, there is a more competive EV market in the US than Europe or China. Really? This sounds like total BS. Ward's is a joke. They have no business publishing numbers they cannot verify with a credible source. If they had any integrity they would fill their Tesla fields with "NA".

If they do update when they get credible data, then they should do so now. They have Sept 2013 at 1700. So given Musk's data point they should update Sept 2014 to 2805 and update the longer term trend they imagine.

In terms of PR, they should publically encourage Tesla to provide them with accurate data and put the onus on Tesla for witholding data.

 

[vgrinshpun]

can call IR. I did. Suggested that even if they don't want to release monthly sales, regional sales, they can 1) clarify the "incentives" are a better offering from their partner, US Bank, not a margin draining price cut reaction to "slumping sales" 2) comment of magnitude of how inaccurate estimates from various sources are, (that is clarify how unreliable the estimates are without releasing data) 3) provide rational on Tesla's policy of not disclosing greater detail on sales.

It's a little before 3pm California time... perhaps a few calls would lead to a response.

Looks like Elon got your word, SteveG3, addressed your #1 and #2.

Thank you for your activism!

 

[DaveT]

Looks like Elon got your word, SteveG3, addressed your #1 and #2.

Thank you for your activism!

I think we all owe SteveG3 a beer.