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IF it is true, as reported on this thread upstream that the factory was virtually closed for 3-3.5 weeks then I think making production guidance of 9,000 vehicles 'may' be tough. I am NOT trying to be negative but I also look at the slow down in the opening of SCs this quarter, the push to Cali residents to pick up last minute production at the factory and the use of ZEV credits as evidence that a 'meet' of deliveries and positive cash flow (0.01?) were probably made but I don't see a major beat. I do hope I am wrong and I may miss the best chance to buy at the bottom right now (yesterday?) but I am still making only small moves now and sitting on the sidelines with cash.
The way the stock moves at Q3 will all be on the CC.....The actual Q3 figures will just be 'OK' IMO.
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$232
chickensevil
Active Member
Just silly... toying with words in order to make your bear argument still valid even though it has been proven false by the man himself... Elon only has 120 characters... not like he can write a novel using 100% perfect english to ensure no possible misunderstanding in his writings. Give me a break!
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I don't know man, historically buying on the 200-day has always been a winning bet. I am sure you will still make out well in the end, but given this was the second attempt to test the 200-day and as of this morning that has officially failed I don't think from a TA stand-point we will see a repeat of those prices. There is such a huge amount of support that has been gained at the ~220$ level from hitting that twice in 1 month that if they want to break that it will require some serious "sky-is-falling" news story and I just don't see that happening. At this point, I would say from a worst case we trade flat come next week and remain in the 230's. I am personally going to hold on to my Dec/Jan calls at this point (unless something changes substantially between now and next week) and maybe even look to play some short term calls going into the ER depending on the price.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
+1! I'm very happy with him slapping the short FUD machine in the face. It must really annoy him.
You are probably right and I will miss the 'best' chance and settle for buying back at a higher price. My main point is trying to keep things in perspective. We are all strong long supporters of TM/EM and 'the mission'. However, since we are we sometimes (and I have personally done this more than once) get into what I would term 'circular firing squad' mode where we can ratchet up expectations a bit much.
Stupid question, what is "WW" in this context? Looking up "WW" on internet/texting slang does not result in anything remotely appropriate.
As it happens, if Spiegel is right, and WSJ article reported YTD, that's simply another mistake on the WSJ's part. Ward's guesstimate was for the month of September itself (as Elon replied to), as one of their people specifically stated yesterday.
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I believe that's "worldwide."
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
MartinAustin
Active Member
Well TSLA is rocketing up today. I luckily bought some at $227 and more at $225 yesterday... convinced of the truth.
Didn't expect to get help from Elon, I did assume they would stay quiet until ER.
Looking at the graph, it just touched $237 now and we may obliterate $240 today - since the 65% YOY tweet represents actual hard data announced early. We haven't had any actual hard data since the last ER months ago!
Be aware that of the increase in TSLA is basically pricing in any great news we will hear in the ER. Gains following the ER may be attenuated now, due to this tweet. (but, it's all good in the long term)
Didn't expect to get help from Elon, I did assume they would stay quiet until ER.
Looking at the graph, it just touched $237 now and we may obliterate $240 today - since the 65% YOY tweet represents actual hard data announced early. We haven't had any actual hard data since the last ER months ago!
Be aware that of the increase in TSLA is basically pricing in any great news we will hear in the ER. Gains following the ER may be attenuated now, due to this tweet. (but, it's all good in the long term)
Well, Mitch - when you're right, you're wrong.
Or when you're wrong, you're right.
Or something like that.
Very, very well done! Congratulations!
I closed my last put position at the open this morning, Elon's tweet should defend the 200 dma, investors & analysts have turned cautious of late & I bet plenty went short late yesterday & are now covering. Always amusing hearing Elon say he doesn't pay close attention to day to day stock movements...yay right!
It would be interesting to calculate 65% more than Q3 2013 US deliveries, because then we would know approximately Q3 2014 deliveries, based on the tweet. However I can't find (after half an hour of looking) a credible estimate of that first number. Remember, lots of cars at the time were being diverted to Europe. In any case I think Q3 '14 is looking better by the minute.
chickensevil
Active Member
Of note it also REALLY helps us that the Nasdaq is happily moving in the same direction right now being up .93%
Watching the RSI from 10:30 to 11 it was pretty great seeing how the RSI dropped way off into oversold but the stock price only went down by 1.50$ (give or take). So with the RSI back on the rise I think we will continue our journey upwards for the day (especially with the Nasdaq still going up)
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The best would likely be the inside EVs number which was posted at 1500. But I wouldn't hold my breath that you will get a real good estimate off of that since we have China all of EU and now Japan and HK to take into account for deliveries that really makes the NA sales insignificant...
Watching the RSI from 10:30 to 11 it was pretty great seeing how the RSI dropped way off into oversold but the stock price only went down by 1.50$ (give or take). So with the RSI back on the rise I think we will continue our journey upwards for the day (especially with the Nasdaq still going up)
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The best would likely be the inside EVs number which was posted at 1500. But I wouldn't hold my breath that you will get a real good estimate off of that since we have China all of EU and now Japan and HK to take into account for deliveries that really makes the NA sales insignificant...
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