-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
just spoke to Zola, Editorial Director, at Ward's, it is there number ("but street.com probably shouldn't have qouted me on that"). they released their that September estimateseveral weeks ago. he does not know how estimate is created but is trying to put me in touch with someone who can comment about that.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Ah. Sitting on this news and then spreading it today. Definitely a bear attack. That is their MO.
InTheShadows
Active Member
If I wasn't in the know and just a regular person on the street, seeing headlines like those above would have me very nervous and scared.
In all honesty, I'm nervous about the markets reaction the next few months, however Tesla as a company and their products I'm ecstatic about!
In all honesty, I'm nervous about the markets reaction the next few months, however Tesla as a company and their products I'm ecstatic about!
Spoke with a gentleman named Frank at Wards.
First, they put out this number October 1st. Yes, bears may have been sitting on spreading this number until an opportunistic moment (presented today as linking Ward -26.3% to "sales incentives" to reinforce the idea of falling demand), but I don't know that I'd say Ward's sat on the number (if that's what Citizen-T meant).
As to the conversation I had with Frank from Ward's
- to be clear it is their month of September U.S. estimate, and it was -26.3%
- he described a 2-3 month period their estimates are to be taken as subject to revision
- he said they look at historic production seasonality, and what can be inferred about production levels from most recent quarterly public disclosures, and then back out registration data they have from the EU
- they do not have registration data from the U.S. or China
- they use other industry sources he could not reveal to help refine their estimates (and I believe to gauge China deliveries)
- I asked if they were taking account of Tesla's publicly stated goal of bringing production up to 1,000 vehicles per week around this time period and he said they did. He did say September number was probably conservative given the production ramp up.
I concluded by describing the impact on the stock, and the Wall Street Journal headline suggesting Tesla was offering incentives in response to falling sales, and asked him to consider whether it made sense to make a statement that these Ward estimates are not being represented in media reporting of them with the degree of uncertainty they involve. He replied that their website describes the nature of the estimates, that Tesla could provide more detailed sales information, and that he felt the WSJ headline was accurate. He also mentioned I was about the fourth investor he'd spoken to today. Thanked him for his time, and that was that.
Thank you for taking the initiative, Steve.
So, Ward's has confirmed that their methodology consists primarily of guessing by extrapolating numbers from PRIOR QUARTERLY REPORTS and overseas data we have all seen before. Which means they have NO FACTS.
And by saying "Tesla could provide more detailed sales information," that's confirmation that (as we knew) Tesla most certainly did not provide sales data to Ward's (nor anyone).
Looks like someone at Ward's got an assignment to estimate car sales data market-wide, and when they encountered Tesla, they could not call on standard information sources such as dealership data because there are no Tesla dealers, and so THEY MADE UP NUMBERS AND PUBLISHED THEM.
Nice journalism.
Yes, I don't have the impression that they know much of anything other than what we all know.
fwiw, Inside EVs, does there own guesstimate of monthly data (technically North America, whereas Wards is U.S.,) and they put September deliveries at 2,500 up, 150% over their estimate for September 2013. So, in the addition to the just an estimate part of this year's number varying so much between these two, there's the compounding of last year's number for each just being a guesstimate, so the year over year comparisons are doubly doubtful (as reflected in one saying -26.3%, the other saying +150%).
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
jhm
Well-Known Member
I wonder if Musk might clear this up by releasing sales numbers early, as was done at least once before.
Really, I wish Tesla would just release monthly numbers as the rest of the industry and spare us all this useless drama.
Really, I wish Tesla would just release monthly numbers as the rest of the industry and spare us all this useless drama.
can call IR. I did. Suggested that even if they don't want to release monthly sales, regional sales, they can 1) clarify the "incentives" are a better offering from their partner, US Bank, not a margin draining price cut reaction to "slumping sales" 2) comment of magnitude of how inaccurate estimates from various sources are, (that is clarify how unreliable the estimates are without releasing data) 3) provide rational on Tesla's policy of not disclosing greater detail on sales.
It's a little before 3pm California time... perhaps a few calls would lead to a response.
stoebs
Member
Does anyone have a link to reliable data on what the US (or North America) sales numbers actually are? I know that Tesla puts out quarterly numbers on a global scale, but I don't recall a breakdown for how many units go to each region (EUR/ASIA/NA, etc). This whole Ward thing got me thinking...does Tesla even publish this information, or is everyone guessing?
would set bad precedent that they respond to every poor report. ER only week away, if numbers significantly differ from Wards then Wards will have burned themselves as a credible source (not that this would matter to some media channels)
Hi All, been a stalker here for a couple months. Long a few shares of Tesla with cost basis around $240 (unfortunately bought into the D hype). Thanks Steve G3 for making that phone call and relaying it to us.
Anyway, I think U.S. Sales probably are down this year-to-date through Sept. over last year. The main point is that its probably not due to lack of demand but rather due to more cars going overseas. I will say that when I first heard about the better leasing prices, before I read Elon's blog, it made me question whether the improved pricing was due to a decrease in demand. But that seems not to be the case.
One thing I feel is under appreciated is the reduction in oil prices. I think the perception is that it will hurt Tesla's demand. Whether it plays out that way or not doesn't change the fact that the investing public may perceive it that way.
Lastly, for me anyway, a temporary price decrease is good thing, because I need to lower my cost basis. Love all the good info here.
Anyway, I think U.S. Sales probably are down this year-to-date through Sept. over last year. The main point is that its probably not due to lack of demand but rather due to more cars going overseas. I will say that when I first heard about the better leasing prices, before I read Elon's blog, it made me question whether the improved pricing was due to a decrease in demand. But that seems not to be the case.
One thing I feel is under appreciated is the reduction in oil prices. I think the perception is that it will hurt Tesla's demand. Whether it plays out that way or not doesn't change the fact that the investing public may perceive it that way.
Lastly, for me anyway, a temporary price decrease is good thing, because I need to lower my cost basis. Love all the good info here.
chickensevil
Active Member
For the record I don't think this was "new" information that I provided this morning, since talking with at least one other avid Tesla owner has revealed that they heard about this back when it came online. I was just putting it out there since I didn't think it was that widely known and talked about. Not as a means to spread FUD or some such but to help us in figuring out any kind of production estimates since at this point most all of us here seem to be certain that meeting delivery estimates is pretty easy for them to do. I wouldn't think my one comment today had any real impact on the shareprice. Might have just been a bad day to post the details though...
I understand your point, can't respond to every bad report. I just think there seems to be a false message that Tesla is discounting due to falling demand. This can affect brand perception and demand. There's a reason bars, nightclubs make it quite visible to passersby that people have lined up to pay to come inside.
chickensevil
Active Member
From my understanding, getting the registration data in the US requires a LOT of legwork going state to state to ask them for their information, and even then I don't think you would get it very easily (or quickly). There are *some* EU nations that publish their numbers, but I don't think all do. And China sorta posts their data... sometimes? But now we have Japan and HK to throw into the mix... Good luck figuring it out before Tesla tells us.
- - - Updated - - -
There probably is, which is why I am sure that... yet again... Elon will adamantly state on the call "There is no demand issue". It has been stated in every other ER that I can remember, might as well say it with this one too. I don't think it is necessary at this point to clarify from them since to back any claim about demand would likely require them give out something else, and we are far too close to ER for them to really say anything worthwhile. It is FUD and if the average Joe hasn't caught on to that by now? They are in the wrong game.
fwiw,
I was playing around with the lease vs. cash pricing up on the website, and it led me to the realization neither Tesla nor US Bank are taking any kind of a hit/cutting prices (i.e. reduced margins) on the new lease offering. The up to 25% reduction in monthly payments is true, but this is much more about the difference between the original sort of lease-like loan with a guaranteed buy-back where Tesla purchases the car and an actual lease where you pay a monthly price and either turn the car in or you purchase the car at the end.
fwiw, if US Bank is eligible for the $7.5K tax credit (and I'm fairly sure they are), it looks like a good deal on their end.
I was playing around with the lease vs. cash pricing up on the website, and it led me to the realization neither Tesla nor US Bank are taking any kind of a hit/cutting prices (i.e. reduced margins) on the new lease offering. The up to 25% reduction in monthly payments is true, but this is much more about the difference between the original sort of lease-like loan with a guaranteed buy-back where Tesla purchases the car and an actual lease where you pay a monthly price and either turn the car in or you purchase the car at the end.
fwiw, if US Bank is eligible for the $7.5K tax credit (and I'm fairly sure they are), it looks like a good deal on their end.
- Status
Similar threads
