Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[chickensevil]

CNN, doing a bit of a tease themselves, one minute clip below was posted an hour ago, but does not indicate the date interview was done with Elon.

In clip Elon says Tesla car 90% autopilot capable probably in 2015, for sure highway travel (recommend watching for nuances and an Elon moment at the end).

Elon Musk: Tesla 90% autonomous in 2015 - Video - Technology - Innovation Nation

I'm trying to square this clip with Elon's comments in Japan just a few weeks back that it will be 5-6 years, and then a couple of years for regulatory approval for autopilot. Hopefully, the comments are consistent, and simply reflect the difference between 90% next year, and 100% autopilot. Would be bummed if the difference is he said in interview "capable" but technically did not say would be available for consumer use.

You should be careful in the difference in terms. Autopilot has constantly been compared to autopilot on an airplane which is why the term is used. It doesn't replace a pilot, it augments them and makes it so they don't have to put forth as much effort. Fully automated driving is driving without the aid of human interaction at all.

What he has stated previously (June-ish) what autopilot from on-ramp to off-ramp (meaning interstate highway) without interaction. What this means to me, is that on well defined roadways in standard driving conditions the car can handle itself, but it doesn't have all possible variables programmed to handle every situation. For example: poor weather conditions, road construction, not clearly marked roadways, maybe even unable to handle actual turns at an intersection (most highways have ramps with merging instead of actual turn offs)...

What he was speaking of in Japan was taking the driver fully out of the equation in probably all situations. This is why there is a time gap between the two. Autopilot under common conditions should be easy... it is getting all the exceptions accounted for that will take us to the ultimate goal of driverless cars that is harder.

- - - Updated - - -

Price action it looks like the market has recovered itself from this mornings sell off and has pulled the Nasdaq back positive. This has lifted some of the downward pressure on Tesla to allow the stock to pop back over 250. While TSLA mostly avoided following the market trend, the news that hit today was hard to not be affected by it in some way.

 

[Joel]

You should be careful in the difference in terms. Autopilot has constantly been compared to autopilot on an airplane which is why the term is used. It doesn't replace a pilot, it augments them and makes it so they don't have to put forth as much effort. Fully automated driving is driving without the aid of human interaction at all.

What he has stated previously (June-ish) what autopilot from on-ramp to off-ramp (meaning interstate highway) without interaction. What this means to me, is that on well defined roadways in standard driving conditions the car can handle itself, but it doesn't have all possible variables programmed to handle every situation. For example: poor weather conditions, road construction, not clearly marked roadways, maybe even unable to handle actual turns at an intersection (most highways have ramps with merging instead of actual turn offs)...

What he was speaking of in Japan was taking the driver fully out of the equation in probably all situations. This is why there is a time gap between the two. Autopilot under common conditions should be easy... it is getting all the exceptions accounted for that will take us to the ultimate goal of driverless cars that is harder.

- - - Updated - - -

Price action it looks like the market has recovered itself from this mornings sell off and has pulled the Nasdaq back positive. This has lifted some of the downward pressure on Tesla to allow the stock to pop back over 250. While TSLA mostly avoided following the market trend, the news that hit today was hard to not be affected by it in some way.

The first "auto-pilot," "on-ramp to off-ramp," or whatever you want to call it will be in Model X at launch. It will be in Model X before Model S. The technology requires a driver.

This is yet another reason the Dual Motor Model S with Drive Assist is launching in Q4 2014: iron out the non-auto pilot features and AWD with Model S before launching "Auto-pilot" and Falcon Wing Doors with X. The difference between Drive Assist and Autonomous Driving "Auto-Pilot," etc. is:

Drive Assist is lane departure warning, adaptive cruise control, speed warning, self parallel Parking, etc. Many cars have these features today (GM, Honda, BMW, etc.)

Autonomous Driving features drive assist and incorporates Autonomous steering and Autonomous Braking. A few cars have these features today (Notably Mercedes Audi).

On the Road in Mobileye’s Self-Driving Car - NYTimes.com

And no one has the "driverless" car yet.

 

[chickensevil]

The first "auto-pilot," "on-ramp to off-ramp," or whatever you want to call it will be in Model X at launch. It will be in Model X before Model S. The technology requires a driver.

This is yet another reason the Dual Motor Model S with Drive Assist is launching in Q4 2014: iron out the non-auto pilot features and AWD with Model S before launching "Auto-pilot" and Falcon Wing Doors with X. The difference between Drive Assist and Autonomous Driving "Auto-Pilot," etc. is:

Drive Assist is lane departure warning, adaptive cruise control, speed warning, self parallel Parking, etc. Many cars have these features today (GM, Honda, BMW, etc.)

Autonomous Driving features drive assist and incorporates Autonomous steering and Autonomous Braking. A few cars have these features today (Notably Mercedes Audi).

On the Road in Mobileye’s Self-Driving Car - NYTimes.com

And no one has the "driverless" car yet.

What makes you think auto-pilot will be in the X at launch? The soonest they said they could demo this (as in, show it is possible, but not necessarily make it into production... think battery swap) was by the end of 2015. That would be some impressive feat for them to not only demo auto-pilot but have it in a production car ready to go by the time they deliver the first car. That means we would be seeing a demo of this likely at the Beta reveal event which would easily be a whole year ahead of their previously listed schedule.

I appreciate the enthusiasm for Tesla and auto-pilot, but why would Elon say in June at the annual shareholder's meeting that they would be able to show it "probably" by the end of 2015 (and in Elon time, that likely means later than 2015) when they were that far along with the tech that they were ready to slap it into the production Model X?

I would love for you to be right, but I just don't think this is going to happen, and I would rather set appropriate expectations here so people don't get disappointed when they maybe barely hit their previous stated timeline of end of 2015 (which is still pretty amazing!)

 

[SteveG3]

You should be careful in the difference in terms. Autopilot has constantly been compared to autopilot on an airplane which is why the term is used. It doesn't replace a pilot, it augments them and makes it so they don't have to put forth as much effort. Fully automated driving is driving without the aid of human interaction at all.

What he has stated previously (June-ish) what autopilot from on-ramp to off-ramp (meaning interstate highway) without interaction. What this means to me, is that on well defined roadways in standard driving conditions the car can handle itself, but it doesn't have all possible variables programmed to handle every situation. For example: poor weather conditions, road construction, not clearly marked roadways, maybe even unable to handle actual turns at an intersection (most highways have ramps with merging instead of actual turn offs)...

What he was speaking of in Japan was taking the driver fully out of the equation in probably all situations. This is why there is a time gap between the two. Autopilot under common conditions should be easy... it is getting all the exceptions accounted for that will take us to the ultimate goal of driverless cars that is harder.

- - - Updated - - -

Price action it looks like the market has recovered itself from this mornings sell off and has pulled the Nasdaq back positive. This has lifted some of the downward pressure on Tesla to allow the stock to pop back over 250. While TSLA mostly avoided following the market trend, the news that hit today was hard to not be affected by it in some way.

Chicken, yes, Elon, has talked about the last 10% being really difficult, good point. You may want to watch the clip, mainly because it's quite encouraging and funny, but also, the way Elon uses the words autopilot and autonomous, I don't have the impression you do as to his use of the words, and I don't see anything inconsistent with what I wrote and what he said.

as to timing... my vague memory about his annual meeting comment was something like "next year" or "in 2015" the car could basically drive from on ramp to off ramp. I don't remember anything specific about end of 2015. I think there's a reasonable chance what Elon was talking about in CNN clip, X will have from day one.

 

[AlMc]

The first "auto-pilot," "on-ramp to off-ramp," or whatever you want to call it will be in Model X at launch. It will be in Model X before Model S. The technology requires a driver.

This is yet another reason the Dual Motor Model S with Drive Assist is launching in Q4 2014: iron out the non-auto pilot features and AWD with Model S before launching "Auto-pilot" and Falcon Wing Doors with X. The difference between Drive Assist and Autonomous Driving "Auto-Pilot," etc. is:

Drive Assist is lane departure warning, adaptive cruise control, speed warning, self parallel Parking, etc. Many cars have these features today (GM, Honda, BMW, etc.)

Autonomous Driving features drive assist and incorporates Autonomous steering and Autonomous Braking. A few cars have these features today (Notably Mercedes Audi).

On the Road in Mobileye’s Self-Driving Car - NYTimes.com

And no one has the "driverless" car yet.

Do you think the hardware we are seeing on the model S being produced now is enough to support the kind of 'on ramp to off ramp' autonomous driving and that it will just need a firmware update (8.0??) to allow it to work and that the X will just have it from day 1?? Thanks

 

[Joel]

Chicken, yes, Elon, has talked about the last 10% being really difficult, good point. You may want to watch the clip, mainly because it's quite encouraging and funny, but also, the way Elon uses the words autopilot and autonomous, I don't have the impression you do as to his use of the words, and I don't see anything inconsistent with what I wrote and what he said.

as to timing... my vague memory about his annual meeting comment was something like "next year" or "in 2015" the car could basically drive from on ramp to off ramp. I don't remember anything specific about end of 2015. I think there's a reasonable chance what Elon was talking about in CNN clip, X will have from day one.

SteveG3 - is correct.

 

[austinEV]

Do you think the hardware we are seeing on the model S being produced now is enough to support the kind of 'on ramp to off ramp' autonomous driving and that it will just need a firmware update (8.0??) to allow it to work and that the X will just have it from day 1?? Thanks

They don't have to have autopilot or self driving ready to go for the X, they just have to have the hardware sensors set installed that it will require, so the rest of the work is "just software".

 

[AlMc]

They don't have to have autopilot or self driving ready to go for the X, they just have to have the hardware sensors set installed that it will require, so the rest of the work is "just software".

Correct. My question was if the current hardware on the S is sufficient to support that type of autonomous driving (will just need a firmware upgrade) while the X will be released with a fully functional hardware/firmware combo.

 

[hershey101]

Correct. My question was if the current hardware on the S is sufficient to support that type of autonomous driving (will just need a firmware upgrade) while the X will be released with a fully functional hardware/firmware combo.

I haven't seen the car with the new features but based on the photos I have seen online, I'm inclined to say its not enough hardware.

 

[BlueTan85]

(EDIT: I was agreeing with Chicken's #8326)

I agree. I think auto-pilot is going to take a ton of time to get through government regulations at state and federal levels. Maybe all 50 states. And then there's international.

It's one thing to have an agile technology R&D organization, and whip stuff out quickly, but it's another to get such a potentially dangerous-if-not-perfect technology on the road where lives are at risk. I think the proverbial regulatory hurdles will be lengthy and public and we haven't seen or heard any of that.

So I am highly skeptical of any auto-pilot or any such stuff any time soon. Driver Assist, well hell, lots of other car companies have had stuff like that for a while. My 2010 Audi had wonderful lane-change warnings and watch-out-car-in-front-is-stopping radar features. Tesla's playing catchup in these departments. Nah, I don't think either are that big a deal.

However I do think Tesla has deliberately held off on certain features for Model S so they're timed to be close to the major PR campaign of Model X, so as to help keep demand high for Model S.

 

[Joel]

(EDIT: I was agreeing with Chicken's #8326)

I agree. I think auto-pilot is going to take a ton of time to get through government regulations at state and federal levels. Maybe all 50 states. And then there's international.

It's one thing to have an agile technology R&D organization, and whip stuff out quickly, but it's another to get such a potentially dangerous-if-not-perfect technology on the road where lives are at risk. I think the proverbial regulatory hurdles will be lengthy and public and we haven't seen or heard any of that.

So I am highly skeptical of any auto-pilot or any such stuff any time soon. Driver Assist, well hell, lots of other car companies have had stuff like that for a while. My 2010 Audi had wonderful lane-change warnings and watch-out-car-in-front-is-stopping radar features. Tesla's playing catchup in these departments. Nah, I don't think either are that big a deal.

However I do think Tesla has deliberately held off on certain features for Model S so they're timed to be close to the major PR campaign of Model X, so as to help keep demand high for Model S.

Legislation won't be difficult to pass. Politicians view it as a safety issue:

Autonomous vehicle testing now allowed under Michigan law | MLive.com

There is a lot of autonomous driving testing happening here in Michigan. So, I might have seen a thing or two. Perhaps been a "driver." Silicon Valley is not the leader in every technological category in every industry :smile:

 

[hershey101]

For anyone not paying attention to the Elon D thread, we have confirmation that D is Dual motor. P85D photo posted from a hangar at a airstrip near the Tesla factory...
Given this, I'm thinking there is a 97% chance that the "something else" is what we already know regarding the adaptive cruise control features etc. and there is a 3% chance that we see a Model X prototype. I expect Elon to do a separate event for the Model X. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if this is another 3-part series with Model X beta, and then the final part being a very early alpha Gen 3 or something else...
@DaveT, given this, do you still feel confident that we will stay above $250 come next week? I think news will get out about P85D by monday, and we could have an early sell on the news even before the news comes out, with there being no movement on the 9th....

 

[MikeC]

How is that pic confirmation of dual motor? It's just badging that says P85D.

 

[hershey101]

How is that pic confirmation of dual motor? It's just badging that says P85D.

The D can be two things: "Dual motor" or "Deluxe Edition" (No other guesses regarding the Model S makes sense)... I say its not the Deluxe edition because the wheelbase looks the same, and it doesn't look particularly more luxurious than a normal Model S. That is not to say they won't make the interior nicer, I just don't think that that will be the primary selling point. Plus, it makes more sense to go with dual motor, I see much more demand for that (especially if they can get not only better handling, but also better performance), than a longer wheelbase luxuary car for a small customer base.

 

[30seconds]

How is that pic confirmation of dual motor? It's just badging that says P85D.

I'm not sure that pic is confirmation of much. Not sure why Tesla would badge anything prior to the 9th, let alone something in the wild

 

[MikeC]

The D can be two things: "Dual motor" or "Deluxe Edition" (No other guesses regarding the Model S makes sense)... I say its not the Deluxe edition because the wheelbase looks the same, and it doesn't look particularly more luxurious than a normal Model S. That is not to say they won't make the interior nicer, I just don't think that that will be the primary selling point. Plus, it makes more sense to go with dual motor, I see much more demand for that (especially if they can get not only better handling, but also better performance), than a longer wheelbase luxuary car for a small customer base.

So it's not confirmed then - my money is still on Deluxe. We can't tell anything about the wheelbase or interior from a rear exterior shot. And it just seems that Deluxe is comparable to Performance as a modifying adjective as opposed to describing a specific part of the car.

 

[palmer_md]

I agree with others that it is going to be related to Driver assistance. I was in the Menlo Park Tesla showroom yesterday, and noted that the display car had all the added components (camera, radar, side mounted parking sensor for blind spot warnings). I asked about them and told him I saw owners posting about them in the forum, and he just said that he was not allowed to talk about it just yet. He said he could talk about it very soon, but not yet. He would not even admit that I knew what all the sensors were for although I can tell he wanted to say something based on the smile on his face.

I'd like to hear that it is also about Dual motors, but my personal guess is that they will wait to announce this. They like to spread out their announcements, and two big items at the same time is not their style. I'm not sure if they will have the X reveal before they show an all wheel drive Model S, but if I had to bet, I'd say that would be the order of announcements, and they won't do them all at once.

Based on Elon's follow up twitter comment about not revealing the other letter after there were several folks joking about Elon revealing his "D". He said he's glad he did not mention the other letter. What else does he keep covered up but his "A". So there you have both letters D and A for Driver Assist.

 

[MikeC]

Based on Elon's follow up twitter comment about not revealing the other letter after there were several folks joking about Elon revealing his "D". He said he's glad he did not mention the other letter. What else does he keep covered up but his "A". So there you have both letters D and A for Driver Assist.

The bears would have a field day if Elon's big event was simply to announce that the Model S now has features that other cars have had for years. I think driver assist will be standard on the Deluxe package, along with other luxury improvements.

 

[Auzie]

What a tweet can do

Amazing. Elon certainly has the power to move the stock up or down, and he is doing it.

I wish for more tweets like that from Elon.

 

[DaveT]

Dave, any thoughts?

This pretty much seals the deal for me. It's dual motor Model S:
About time to unveil the D and something else - Page 29