Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Chickenlittle]

Man the market is just all over the place this week... First housing market looks, bad... we drop. Housing market looks great! we rise... Now today unemployement seems to be on the rise and Durable Goods Orders has fallen causing a massive sell off again.

The durable goods report dropped because the previous report was raised by 150 billion dollars of plane orders to Boeing. Very easy to predict this decrease yet nobody reported it that way

 

[TSLAopt]

Has anyone seen any press on this yet? Maybe if/when it gets picked up it will change the tide on TSLA's downward trend...

BREAKING - New cars are shipping with lane departure warning and speed assist! - UPDATE 2 - 9/24 | Forums | Tesla Motors

 

[AlMc]

Has anyone seen any press on this yet? Maybe if/when it gets picked up it will change the tide on TSLA's downward trend...

BREAKING - New cars are shipping with lane departure warning and speed assist! - UPDATE 2 - 9/24 | Forums | Tesla Motors

No, I have been searching my favorite information sites and seen no mention of this in the press. I suspect someone will write an SA article and include it soon or maybe San Jose Mercury Press. I would think TM would put out a Press Release soon about it. This will be 'good news' but with the funk the momos (except GPRO) are in right now I am not sure this will have a positive impact. An AWD S or X sightings/reveal is the next big positive catalyst in my view.

 

[TSLAopt]

I agree that this alone won't get TSLA out of the funk, but perhaps this along with a few other positive news items like you mention will help get the tide to turn...otherwise I fear we are on a slide down to the 220s (temporarily).
Although if the entire market is starting a 'correction' right now then I don't think there is any news that will help raise the price in the midst of a correction.

 

[AlMc]

I agree that this alone won't get TSLA out of the funk, but perhaps this along with a few other positive news items like you mention will help get the tide to turn...otherwise I fear we are on a slide down to the 220s (temporarily).
Although if the entire market is starting a 'correction' right now then I don't think there is any news that will help raise the price in the midst of a correction.

Agreed. Just found this: Not major press but maybe it will be picked up tomorrow; http://jalopnik.com/updated-tesla-model-s-with-cameras-revealed-by-software-1639119860

 

[30seconds]

Scenario:
Google opens its own "Uber" with the SDC technology, they will design, engineer and manufacturer (contractor) a fleet of dedicated SDCs. Those cars will be designed completely different than consumer cars.
They will be robust und sturdy, the goal would be to minimize maintenance as much as possible. They wont have a fancy paint, or other luxery items that consumers usually pay topdollar for.
After all its just a "robot" that is extremly sturdy and uses only little electricity.
Its obvious that a SDC will use much less wh/m than a regular driver, the acceleration curve will always be the most optimal, the wear on the tires and breaks will be reduced as much ass possible, and this "smooth" driving will also reduce general wear in other components in the car. Those cars will be engineered to last well over a million of miles.

Now Google will use this fleet, with the goal to replace 90% of the current cars.
We are talking about Google here, those guys work on that technology because they want to disrupt the world and not because the want to offer a neat feature or replace the regular cabs.

To reach that goal they will price their SDC usage extremely competitive. They will also go after the daily commuters and optimise fleet usage to the peek hours.
Owning an own vehicle will become a luxury like owning an own Plane.

I could imagine that they will include an free "idle" time of lets say 50h/month where you can leave your stuff in the car and go do smth else while the car waits for you or just drives charging up.

We will be at the point where people ask them self why they should come up with a large amount of money like 20-30k when they can just subscribe to the Google Fleet for around 200$ flatrate.

In the end the market for Cars should shrink significantly.
The amount of cars produced per year will be extremely low. And the car will become a commodity since the Fleet managers are engineering and ordering the cars. The will act as rational as it gets.
The manufacturers will outbid each other to be able to supply to the Google Fleet.
There will be no room for the manufacturers to make money with usesless options, maintance, perfomance versions or other irrational items that regular consumer tend to buy.

Sure there will be people left that will keep driving their own car, but this will be consider "rich"



Think about the fact that with a Google Fleet, you can order a different car for a different purpose every time you drive.
-Alone to the city? get the two seater!
-With surfboard and friend to the beach? get the van!
-4 people to the city? get the sedan like
-300 miles trip to antoher city? get the longdistance van, with comfy seats that can be turned into a bed.
etc.

love those google guys and gals, but can't really say that they have done that much past the search engine and android. maybe maps. Not very much on the hardware side (I'm not even going to start with glass). I'm not sure where you expect them to get the car factory from, let alone the battery factory. Oh, and I would note that there is a very big engineering line between software and designing & building a car for mass production. We don't know very much about their concept, but it does look like a one-off custom build to me.

I'm not saying that they couldn't do it, but if they do decide to do it they have alot of work to do, alot of hiring to do and a alot of infrastructure to build.

 

[ckessel]

Has anyone seen any press on this yet? Maybe if/when it gets picked up it will change the tide on TSLA's downward trend...

BREAKING - New cars are shipping with lane departure warning and speed assist! - UPDATE 2 - 9/24 | Forums | Tesla Motors

That's pretty cool. I'm very envious. I doubt it'll have any impact on the short term stock.

 

[LST]

I would expect that this would speed up the used-Model S market. Trade in your early series MS with the newest MS that has some more bells & whistles after 2 years (fill in in your favorite nr.) can be compelling for a lot of people.

 

[Citizen-T]

love those google guys and gals, but can't really say that they have done that much past the search engine and android. maybe maps. Not very much on the hardware side...

All their servers in their data centers are custom built. That's a lot of hardware. Obviously not cars, but to say they don't do much on the hardware side isn't very fair. There's also Motorola Mobility, Nest, the robotics companies they own, Project Loon. They've been very closely involved with the design of the Nexus devices' hardware, Chromebooks and Chromeboxes, Chromecast. They do a fare amount of hardware stuff. Certainly more than Elon did at PayPal.

 

[AlMc]

Anyone with knowledge of the purchase/registration process in China have an opinion on this:LA Times

If I read this article...and interpret it.....correctly...There is a big discrepancy between shipment numbers to china and registrations. If it is true that many people are holding off on finalizing their purchase waiting for the government incentives to be applied then we may have fewer 'deliveries'?

 

[aznt1217]

Anyone with knowledge of the purchase/registration process in China have an opinion on this:LA Times

If I read this article...and interpret it.....correctly...There is a big discrepancy between shipment numbers to china and registrations. If it is true that many people are holding off on finalizing their purchase waiting for the government incentives to be applied then we may have fewer 'deliveries'?

I think it's considered delivered once it's in the customers hands and payment is received. I can definitely see people waiting for the tax exemption rules to kick in, but it can't be THAT significant of a number of people. Typically with them, their time is worth more than the wait.

 

[callmesam]

This is the short term thread, but I've been deep into autopilot/autonomous driving for years.

"he highest price we pay for car crashes is in the loss of human lives, however society also bears the brunt of the many costs associated with motor vehicle accidents. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), U.S. motor vehicle crashes in 2010 cost almost $1 trillion in loss of productivity and loss of life."

http://www.rmiia.org/auto/traffic_safety/Cost_of_crashes.asp

If an automaker can provide a product that rarely wrecks, compared to current accident rates, then that will be a lot of money to split.

"Private insurers pay approximately 50% of all motor vehicle crash costs. Individual crash victims pay about 26%, while third parties such as uninvolved motorists delayed in traffic, charities and health care providers pay about 14%. Federal revenues account for 6%, while state and local municipalities pick up about 3%. Overall, those not directly involved in crashes pay for nearly three-quarters of all crash costs, primarily through insurance premiums, taxes and travel delay." [Emphasis added]

Everyone that is skeptical of autopilot/autonomous driving needs to read Chunka Mui's Forbes series. This is closer to happening than the public realizes.

Fasten Your Seatbelts: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions (Part 1) - Forbes

Even if you disagree with the assessment by Google, Tesla, Forbes, common sense . . .California has mandatory rulemaking for driverless cars on the road due by December 31, 2014.

Automated Driving: Legislative and Regulatory Action - CyberWiki

"As amended, defines "autonomous technology," "autonomous vehicle," and "operator"; finds that the state "presently does not prohibit or specifically regulate the operation of autonomous vehicles"; requires rulemaking before 2015; permits current operation under certain conditions; imposes additional oversight on the operation of vehicles without a human in the driver's seat; and requires that the "manufacturer of the autonomous technology installed on a vehicle shall provide a written disclosure to the purchaser of an autonomous vehicle that describes what information is collected by the autonomous technology equipped on the vehicle." Recent amendment struck previous language stating "the intent of the Legislature that current law governing the conversion of vehicles originally manufactured by a third party shall control issues of liability arising from the operation of the autonomous vehicle if that vehicle was converted by an autonomous technology manufacturer."

 

[FluxCap]

Tesla announces some cool pre-autonomous driving features shipping NOW on some new Model S deliveries:

"Update: Tesla has issued the following statement, "Starting recently, some Model S being delivered in North America come equipped with two new features. The features are lane drift detection, which will deliver a warning via vibration in the steering wheel if the driver starts to drift from the lane without signaling, and speed limit display, which will inform the driver of the speed limit and alert them when it is exceeded. These features are necessary to meet the latest standards in the European market, but we have decided to integrate them into Model S delivered worldwide." Also, regarding retrofit possibilities, "due to the extensive changes involved in this instance, however, a retrofit is not feasible."

Thanks to DaveT for the info from his latest, fantastic Tesla Weekly report. I'd encourage everyone to take a look/subscribe. Some good notes on supercharger expansion, Model S upgrades, interview with Diarmuid, and more.

 

[austinEV]

This is the short term thread, but I've been deep into autopilot/autonomous driving for years.

"he highest price we pay for car crashes is in the loss of human lives, however society also bears the brunt of the many costs associated with motor vehicle accidents. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), U.S. motor vehicle crashes in 2010 cost almost $1 trillion in loss of productivity and loss of life."

http://www.rmiia.org/auto/traffic_safety/Cost_of_crashes.asp

If an automaker can provide a product that rarely wrecks, compared to current accident rates, then that will be a lot of money to split.

"Private insurers pay approximately 50% of all motor vehicle crash costs. Individual crash victims pay about 26%, while third parties such as uninvolved motorists delayed in traffic, charities and health care providers pay about 14%. Federal revenues account for 6%, while state and local municipalities pick up about 3%. Overall, those not directly involved in crashes pay for nearly three-quarters of all crash costs, primarily through insurance premiums, taxes and travel delay." [Emphasis added]

Everyone that is skeptical of autopilot/autonomous driving needs to read Chunka Mui's Forbes series. This is closer to happening than the public realizes.

Fasten Your Seatbelts: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions (Part 1) - Forbes

Even if you disagree with the assessment by Google, Tesla, Forbes, common sense . . .California has mandatory rulemaking for driverless cars on the road due by December 31, 2014.

Automated Driving: Legislative and Regulatory Action - CyberWiki

"As amended, defines "autonomous technology," "autonomous vehicle," and "operator"; finds that the state "presently does not prohibit or specifically regulate the operation of autonomous vehicles"; requires rulemaking before 2015; permits current operation under certain conditions; imposes additional oversight on the operation of vehicles without a human in the driver's seat; and requires that the "manufacturer of the autonomous technology installed on a vehicle shall provide a written disclosure to the purchaser of an autonomous vehicle that describes what information is collected by the autonomous technology equipped on the vehicle." Recent amendment struck previous language stating "the intent of the Legislature that current law governing the conversion of vehicles originally manufactured by a third party shall control issues of liability arising from the operation of the autonomous vehicle if that vehicle was converted by an autonomous technology manufacturer."

Agree. Remember too that autonomous driving makes better use of existing roadway infrastructure. That is more trillions to save, in that existing roads can be used much more efficiently. That is why you will see autonomous driving mandated earlier than you think, cities and states will force it on drivers who may or may not be on board. I think that a highway that is in a traffic jammed morning commute is only 15% covered with cars (in terms of surface area). That is how inefficient we human drivers are.

 

[BlueTan85]

Anyone with knowledge of the purchase/registration process in China have an opinion on this:LA Times

If I read this article...and interpret it.....correctly...There is a big discrepancy between shipment numbers to china and registrations. If it is true that many people are holding off on finalizing their purchase waiting for the government incentives to be applied then we may have fewer 'deliveries'?

A very curious article. And the source, the LA Times, is has shown itself to be quite anti-Tesla. Aside from the content of the article, I wonder why LA Times decided it was appropriate to embed a slide show of a bunch of electric and plug-in vehicles from Ford and other vendors, that has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the Tesla article? Lemme guess: because Ford et al (or their dealerships) are advertisers?

 

[GenIIIBuyer]

Agree. Remember too that autonomous driving makes better use of existing roadway infrastructure. That is more trillions to save, in that existing roads can be used much more efficiently. That is why you will see autonomous driving mandated earlier than you think, cities and states will force it on drivers who may or may not be on board. I think that a highway that is in a traffic jammed morning commute is only 15% covered with cars (in terms of surface area). That is how inefficient we human drivers are.

I look forward to the day that as sign as the light goes green at an intersection all cars accelerate at once at an equal rate of acceleration. Think this would reduce non-highway congestion immensely. No need for more lanes.

 

[ckessel]

Someday, autonomous cars will be the norm and there really won't be cars as we know them now. Every manufacturer will have to morph to creating essentially public transportation level cars.

I think it'll be a great thing for society, think of it as a slow teleportation But that day is far, far away.

I'm 45, but I'm skeptical I'll live long enough to see it. Maybe I'll see the beginnings of it, with car sharing companies like ZipCar converting into fleets of self driving vehicles. It's certainly not a "short term" item.

 

[callmesam]

On a short term basis, all of these features (including autonomous driving and autopilot) are a net positive for a growing competitor that can shift it's fleet quickly.

Big Auto is going to reduce production of marginal car sales.

Whether it is meat or silicon doing the driving, Tesla has a BETTER (Premium) product.

 

[callmesam]

HONG KONG, THE NORWAY OF ASIA?


"Hong Kong could potentially be the place to showcase the success of electric vehicles to the rest of Asia," Veronica Wu suggested, adding that Tesla aims [for HK] to be "the Norway of Asia."


Tesla Expands in Hong Kong, Faces Crackdown in Iowa


Tesla Expands in Hong Kong, Faces Crackdown in Iowa | News & Opinion | PCMag.com


How realistic is this?

 

[bsd]

If I read this article...and interpret it.....correctly...There is a big discrepancy between shipment numbers to china and registrations.

I recall from the Red-Hot China thread that people can switch the same plate between cars. So they wouldn't appear as new registrations.

How does that work in China - people are allowed to freely switch a plate between vehicles?

Yes. Unlike US, people owen the plate (number).