So much back and forth about the latest grand act. What Musk does is both simple and ingenious. Often the simple things are so obvious that everyone wonders why they didn't think of it first, but it takes brilliance and vision to see the statue buried in the rock. Musk manages to see the statue before the rock has even been excavated.
The public opinion of the latest Musk act has garnered praise for both his vision and his altruism. But many of his staunchest supporters, or heretofore staunch supporters, are voicing doubt about the benefit to stockholders or motivation for this act of generosity.
Musk hasn't suddenly changed his modus operandi and acted impulsively or recklessly. He has much to gain with the success of Tesla and that gain is necessary to achieve his ultimate personal goal. Along the way, he also wants to improve the world, or at least try to save as much of it as is within his ability. Electric cars accelerate the decrease in dependence on fossil fuels and that benefits all except those who make money killing us through pollution.
I used to think Musk might play with shorts and aid the stockholders, but now I realize he only resented them in the beginning and has proven himself and his company, is insulated enough from risk of failure, and is confident enough that shorts are of no interest to him. He is going to develop Tesla and BEVs in general in whatever way he believes will be most successful. Those who choose to go along for the ride will be rewarded. But expecting his actions to result in immediate gains, as it did a year ago, is probably going to be very frustrating for those who weren't interested in holding for longer periods.
The debate about the likelihood of being overwhelmed by significant competition from the "big boys" is wasted energy. In order to be overwhelmed and left in the dust, the big boys have to make an effort, and I believe the BMW "effort" is what motivated Musk to open the patents for everyone to use.
There are certainly arguments for the I3 as strictly a BEV for those who can utilize it, but I think the competitors offer more value for the money, as long as it is strictly BEV. When it comes to the I8, it is a great looking car and is no doubt great inside, but a BEV it ain't. Musk wants to see only electric cars and no ICE. I agree, and those who believe in the Musk vision are going to stay long and ride the stock for significant gains over time.
The gigafactory planning is important. Doing the prep work for two or three locations at the same time gives Tesla a huge leg up on all competition. The only way the competitors are going to be ready to purchase Tesla batteries is if they buy other components from Tesla. If they don't, and they expect to use the technology detailed in the patents, they still have to develop the vehicles themselves, and then they have to build their own gigafactories or buy batteries from a supplier.
There aren't any suppliers for Tesla battery modules. And Panasonic is completely dedicated to Tesla for the foreseeable future for the individual cells. If you give somebody a significant head start, it gets very difficult to catch and pass them unless you are so much better that it still isn't a contest. Catching Tesla isn't going to be easy even for BMW with all their engineering and capital. When you draft the top ten picks for five years, you haven't left much for others to build a competitive team, especially when the others weren't even drafting the remaining players. Tesla is the superior team, with the premium players, and they have a head start. They just want others to try, so they offer up access to patents to try and make it race.
If you own the stock, relax, it will gain. If you start buying now, you will gain. If you have options, you might be disappointed. I know, I made multiple P85's on options when it popped in February, but then pushed it all back in and lost it. I had fun, but I was lucky, and then learned my lesson. I'll just stick to what I know, So now I just hold the stock.
