Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[vgrinshpun]

I think I could make a living selling at the open, rebuying 30 minutes later at a lower price... Rinse, repeat.

I actualy did it several times as a short time play - but in reverse order: bought at the dip in the first hour of trading, sold later in the day or day/two later.

One of such short plays turned out to be a very nice mid-term trade - it kept going down after first hour - and I averaged down during that day and then over the course of several days. It ended up to be a sizable call position, which I sold couple weeks later at a 6-figure gain. The buying was on 01/03, 01/06, 01/09 - before the Detroit Auto show :biggrin:

 

[ggr]

I think I could make a living selling at the open, rebuying 30 minutes later at a lower price... Rinse, repeat.

It's easy to think that, except the exceptions really hurt, like missing out on Morgan Stanley day.

 

[vgrinshpun]

It's easy to think that, except the exceptions really hurt, like missing out on Morgan Stanley day.

That it exactly why I was doing it in reverse order - buying on the dip first, selling after recovery.

 

[Norbert]

Since Kass's shorting of Tesla was discussed earlier in this thread, here a link to an article of his, reflecting on his trades:

Kass: How I Shorted Tesla and Survived - TheStreet

 

[772]

So, Martingale basically. Must be happy he almost broke even.

 

[Lump]

Since Kass's shorting of Tesla was discussed earlier in this thread, here a link to an article of his, reflecting on his trades:

Kass: How I Shorted Tesla and Survived - TheStreet

Doug'y says "The sum total of my loss in the short of Tesla has been negligible, literally a rounding error in the scheme of my overall investing activity."

Prove it if you want us to believe it.

 

[TSLAopt]

Since Kass's shorting of Tesla was discussed earlier in this thread, here a link to an article of his, reflecting on his trades:

Kass: How I Shorted Tesla and Survived - TheStreet

basically he he kept doubling down until there was a pullback where he could cover...this is not a smart move in any way for a short to do...if the stock doesn't have a significant pull back before it goes up 100+ points then game over for that short. Kass' pockets might be a bit deeper than others so he can get away with a few more "double downs" but I really wish he lost his shirt on this to set a public example, maybe he still will

 

[kenliles]

Since Kass's shorting of Tesla was discussed earlier in this thread, here a link to an article of his, reflecting on his trades:

Kass: How I Shorted Tesla and Survived - TheStreet

If (as he stated) the sum total of his short loss was negligible (starting at $205 to $260), then it wasn't a meaningful short imo, but a headline maker. It would've had to drop 100 pts to make it meaningful somehow, then. It turned out to be a wrong play big time for those following him and frankly I'm somehow doubting the loss from $205 to current $253 was so insignificant - my corresponding long position was one of my most significant.

 

[wishing_for_S]

View attachment 44641
Looks like $258 will be the resistant and $240 will be the support of this bull flag for now. As days go by, these 2 values will converge or it may not form a successful bull flag in the end.

How confident are you that this is still a bull flag macman? I am just surprised that there is so much support at this valuation, but it looks real to me.

 

[InTheShadows]

How confident are you that this is still a bull flag macman? I am just surprised that there is so much support at this valuation, but it looks real to me.

The resistance is real solid with 3 touches, maybe 4 now. And two touches for support, not as solid but a pretty good indicator IMO. We are in a little pull back trend right now but I don't think it will make it to support today.

Hitting support tomorrow would make me really happy. I want to add to my June and further out calls and if we start heading there I will be buying. The premiums have dropped a little so I am keeping my fingers crossed. I also sold some calls that expire this week and I would like them to expire worthless.

 

[macman]

How confident are you that this is still a bull flag macman? I am just surprised that there is so much support at this valuation, but it looks real to me.

First, I'm no where near to be an expert on this. So, take my words as is. To be more precise, the pattern that is showing here is Symmetrical Triangle. It can be a continuous or reversal pattern. Not trying to be bearish here, but there's possibility that price break to down trend. We just tested upper resistant line again this morning. So the pattern still valid until it either break the resistant line or the support line.

 

[ggr]

That it exactly why I was doing it in reverse order - buying on the dip first, selling after recovery.

Yeah, but on that day it never pulled back; so you'd have had cash sitting on the sidelines.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Yeah, but on that day it never pulled back; so you'd have had cash sitting on the sidelines.

I almost never have cash sitting on sidelines. My overall strategy is share accumulation, so all my trading is designed to get "free" shares, and all my gains are invested in TSLA. When I need to jump in I use margin. Since I started investing in TSLA I never sold a single share, except to return money borrowed on margin, pay taxes, and cover some expenses. I do not sell shares after run-up in hopes of re-establishing the position after pull back, as I think this is a loosing proposition with stock like TSLA

 

[Robert.Boston]

I haven't bitten, but that's been the pattern with few exceptions seemingly for many weeks. Bots are bots I guess

That's what I did this morning -- sold some some Jan15 $175 calls I held shortly after open, then bought some Jan15 $275 calls mid-morning. I wanted to roll these up anyway, and it was too easy to take advantage of a predictable pattern to make some extra money.

 

[kenliles]

That's what I did this morning -- sold some some Jan15 $175 calls I held shortly after open, then bought some Jan15 $275 calls mid-morning. I wanted to roll these up anyway, and it was too easy to take advantage of a predictable pattern to make some extra money.

Perfect. Excellent way to make roll up. Nice move

 

[Causalien]

Doug'y says "The sum total of my loss in the short of Tesla has been negligible, literally a rounding error in the scheme of my overall investing activity."

Prove it if you want us to believe it.

I Like these fake oracles. Always perfect in their execution.
But alas, i followed his tweets. His first short was $217. And the 3rd big short was never mentioned on the day it happened if my memory serves correctly. Did he change his tweets? I don't know.Anyway, I do not believe in any false oracle's claim of perfect shorts until I see trades with timestamps.

 

[FANGO]

I Like these fake oracles. Always perfect in their execution.
But alas, i followed his tweets. His first short was $217. And the 3rd big short was never mentioned on the day it happened if my memory serves correctly. Did he change his tweets? I don't know.Anyway, I do not believe in any false oracle's claim of perfect shorts until I see trades with timestamps.

Pretty sure he tweeted about shorting on that day we closed in the 190s before the big run up. Or maybe he shorted the day before that at 202 or whatever it was...

 

[772]

His first short was definitely <$202... his first tweet was pre-Q4 ER. Then he said he shorted >$220 after the ER to get an avg sale price ~$212. Then he said he added more short >$260 before he covered some @$236, then again added to his short position at $256. That's what I gathered from his twitter anyway. He says he started "small" and went bigger as the price kept going up... that's why I compared it to a Martingale strategy. Sounds like he is trying to take credit from something that's been around for 300+ years.

 

[30seconds]

His first short was definitely <$202... his first tweet was pre-Q4 ER. Then he said he shorted >$220 after the ER to get an avg sale price ~$212. Then he said he added more short >$260 before he covered some @$236, then again added to his short position at $256. That's what I gathered from his twitter anyway. He says he started "small" and went bigger as the price kept going up... that's why I compared it to a Martingale strategy. Sounds like he is trying to take credit from something that's been around for 300+ years.

Yep he lost some, lost some more and then lost even more. But hey he "averaged up"

 

[bsd]

If Kass had just done the opposite of his intuition, buying at $202 and averaging up and selling at his high, he'd have produced a major windfall for his clients instead of his negligible loss.