Moderator's Note: I've moved 27 posts talking about the giga-factory generally to Official Tesla Gigafactory Discussion Thread . Apologies if this split isn't perfect. Please keep discussions here about the short-term impact on TSLA prices.
You can install our site as a web app on your iOS device by utilizing the Add to Home Screen feature in Safari. Please see this thread for more details on this.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
We almost missed this tidbit amongst all the other news.
Short interest is out. Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com
And there fresh new big shorts have made themselves public since that time.
Somebody please confirm...that shows the snapshot of amount held short with a settlement date of 2/14...so that means it's actually a snapshot of what was happening 3 days prior, correct? So the share price that we can attribute to that snapshot was what?
Closing price on 2/11 was $196.62, so $5.68 Billion in short interest. Am I understanding this correctly?
Somebody please confirm...that shows the snapshot of amount held short with a settlement date of 2/14...so that means it's actually a snapshot of what was happening 3 days prior, correct? So the share price that we can attribute to that snapshot was what?
Closing price on 2/11 was $196.62, so $5.68 Billion in short interest. Am I understanding this correctly?
you may be able to upgrade the options on that car by the end of the week.
either way, hope the price goes up before you sell. I'm in for the long run so not so concerned about the next couple of weeks. I had planned to sell some for a down payment after Q3 ER (assuming it went up) and that didn't workout so well. I've now decided to wait until I can drive the X then decide. I expect my tesla holdings to possibly double between now and the time I could by an X after waiting a year or more on the list by the time I sign up. Of course I may decide to go with the S at that point if I decide the X isn't needed.
Yeah, I am sorry that it didn't work out for you, but at least you stuck with it and got even more back on top of it! Since I have already ordered the car, there is no turning back for me!
- - - Updated - - -
So please tell me if I am missing something here on the 2020 price. This was just some VERY rough napkin math... so critique and correct if you like. There are far more smarter people on this than I am.
You are looking at Tesla producing 500k electric cars a year. Assuming they sell every single one of them @ $35k that is 17.5 billion in revenue.
Add on another ~140k-200k Model S/X and that would be another 14 Billion - 20 Billion in revenue (assuming an ASP of 100k), and you are looking at easily 30B in revenues just from their 3 models.
If they achieve their 10% net margin (minus capex) that would be 3B in profit for 2020 or 24.59$ EPS (based on 122 million shares - this is where I am sure someone knows better than I what the future dilution will look like).
A small 10 P/E would be 240$ 2020 PT.
A more modest of 50 P/E would be 1200$ PT for 2020.
If it keeps up with it's insane 100+ P/E you are looking at a 2400$ PT (I don't think this is going to happen, but you never know...)
So in a super bear case, the stock basically flat-lines here down to F and GM's P/E levels, and you make nothing... (but lose little to nothing)
In a medium case, you stand to gain another $950 upside by 2020 or 158$ a year
If the stock keeps on the crazy path it is going now (I mean 2020 is NOT the end of this company) with a 100 P/E (I think it is actually at like 136 or something but meh...) that is a gain of $2150 or $358 per year growth.
I think I can agree with the Morgan Stanley PT or 320
You are looking at Tesla producing 500k electric cars a year. Assuming they sell every single one of them @ $35k that is 17.5 billion in revenue.
Wouldn't the 500k also include S/X, and possibly Y? Although I think that is very conservative, I think the Gigafactory slide means total vehicle output of 500k.I realize you're going conservative here, but that it assumed to be the base price (not counting tax incentives). In reality, that average sales price with options would likely be perhaps $10k higher?
if you plop that into your spreadsheet, how do those projections look?
Wouldn't the 500k also include S/X, and possibly Y? Although I think that is very conservative, I think the Gigafactory slide means total vehicle output of 500k.
I think I can agree with the Morgan Stanley PT or 320