carrerascott
FUEL FTR
Richmond would have added a good hour and 15 minutes each way ... Not at all on the way fu cville. I agree once there is a Tyson's supercharger that will help.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Richmond would have added a good hour and 15 minutes each way ... Not at all on the way fu cville. I agree once there is a Tyson's supercharger that will help.
I am just going on gut feeling here that $109 - $110 will be the bottom. I don't see TSLA going up any time soon without good reason to do so. We already had a couple of positive catalysts and the stock continued its downward spiral. It is trading on technicals now, as it has been since May, with the only difference being the sentiment shift.
There are a lot of potential buyers sitting on the sidelines and waiting to get in. I think that the 200 day moving average will provide that opportunity. I also think that we will probably get a positive catalyst around that time: analyst upgrade, news from Elon, 700 cars/week, etc. For some reason catalysts tend to follow technicals, most likely not as a coincidence.
In the event of some very negative news, I can see the stock going a lot lower than $110.
I don't see TSLA becoming a NFLX, where it tanks 80% and then stays there for 12 months before recovering back. No way this happens imo. Either Tesla continues its successful path and the stock recovers slowly, or Tesla fails in its venture to become a mass producer and the stock stays at the sub $100 level for a very long time. I am betting on the former. The problem with Netflix was that they completely changed their business model and became a lot less profitable for an extended period of time and got punished. Tesla on the other hand is plugging along the exact same plan it had all along.
MartinAustin
Active Member
There is a SpaceX mission launch in about 7 minutes. You can watch it on live webstream here -
http://www.spacex.com/webcast/
1) Elon Musk is probably focusing a lot on this... assuming the flight is successful, perhaps he will devote more attention to Tesla after that.
2) If the mission is not successful, I would a) be very sad, of course... and b) expect a fall in TSLA for no particular reason except the tenuous connection with SpaceX.
http://www.spacex.com/webcast/
1) Elon Musk is probably focusing a lot on this... assuming the flight is successful, perhaps he will devote more attention to Tesla after that.
2) If the mission is not successful, I would a) be very sad, of course... and b) expect a fall in TSLA for no particular reason except the tenuous connection with SpaceX.
Quote from previous post above:
"PS Global warming arguments aside, I'm convinced we have a moral obligation"to produce and use products that are not harmful to the environment if we have the means to produce them. While I do not currently own a Tesla, I will likely purchase a Model X for my wife as she has a bizarre SUV fascination, and I will purchase a Gen III for myself as an airport commuter car."
Well said!
Too few Tesla buyers (and TSLA buyers too) weigh the moral obligation we have toward future generations. Burying one's head in the sand and claiming we can dump Billions of tons of carbon into the atmosphere without consequences if grossly irresponsible. We should, no MUST, invest with our moral compass intact; to do otherwise only compounds the problems for our great grandchildren . . . .
As Elon stated in his Tweet some months ago, "What if the climate skeptics are wrong?"
Those that study this subject are in near 100% agreement; WE are the problem:
http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus
"PS Global warming arguments aside, I'm convinced we have a moral obligation"to produce and use products that are not harmful to the environment if we have the means to produce them. While I do not currently own a Tesla, I will likely purchase a Model X for my wife as she has a bizarre SUV fascination, and I will purchase a Gen III for myself as an airport commuter car."
Well said!
Too few Tesla buyers (and TSLA buyers too) weigh the moral obligation we have toward future generations. Burying one's head in the sand and claiming we can dump Billions of tons of carbon into the atmosphere without consequences if grossly irresponsible. We should, no MUST, invest with our moral compass intact; to do otherwise only compounds the problems for our great grandchildren . . . .
As Elon stated in his Tweet some months ago, "What if the climate skeptics are wrong?"
Those that study this subject are in near 100% agreement; WE are the problem:
http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus
Not really. I often drive 650 miles each way on a road trip and I do it in one day--or I would if there weren't ten hours of charging at RV parks. (About 700 miles is the right maximum daily drive for a road trip.) The problem is that I don't take the interstate on my normal trip (boring and way too much traffic) so there won't ever be Superchargers on my preferred route. Now there is a Supercharger planned about 35 miles from the route I take. That would entail a 70 mile detour to use it. Now if I had a 500 mile battery, it would be easy to add that 70 miles because only one charging stop would be needed and I'd save hours off the trip time. With the current 85 kWh battery, I'd still have to make three charging stops whether I used the Supercharger or not, and there wouldn't be all that much difference in the total time.
My assumption is that as battery prices come down a 500 mile battery car won't be any more than the current 85 kWh car--maybe even less.
Now before you say, "Rent a car for trips", I can assure you that isn't going to happen. No way will I drive my family in an unfamiliar car with questionable maintenance. That's how the unfortunate CHP officer and his family died a couple of years ago.
Bottom line is that 250 miles does not cover all of a day's driving on a road trip (except perhaps in California).
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Agree 100%. That's why I would like Tesla to be successful. These are great ideals.
mitch672
Active Member
MSMX2014
$ Contributing Member $
marvinat0rz
Member
To quote one of the factory workers who posted anonymously about the working conditions at Fremont: "Workaholic city".
I think this kind of work ethic is par for Musk's companies. Not a place where I would work in a million years, but I'm certainly glad someone else wants to. They probably get paid accordingly.
29 Dumb Things Finance People Say - Business Insider
Some of my favorite ones:
3. "Earnings missed estimates."
No. Earnings don't miss estimates; estimates miss earnings. No one ever says "the weather missed estimates." They blame the weatherman for getting it wrong. Finance is the only industry where people blame their poor forecasting skills on reality.
4. "Earnings met expectations, but analysts were looking for a beat."
If you're expecting earnings to beat expectations, you don't know what the word "expectations" means.
8. "More buyers than sellers."
This is the equivalent of saying someone has more mothers than fathers. There's one buyer and one seller for every trade. Every single one.
24. "Investors are fleeing the market."
Every stock is owned by someone all the time.
Some of my favorite ones:
3. "Earnings missed estimates."
No. Earnings don't miss estimates; estimates miss earnings. No one ever says "the weather missed estimates." They blame the weatherman for getting it wrong. Finance is the only industry where people blame their poor forecasting skills on reality.
4. "Earnings met expectations, but analysts were looking for a beat."
If you're expecting earnings to beat expectations, you don't know what the word "expectations" means.
8. "More buyers than sellers."
This is the equivalent of saying someone has more mothers than fathers. There's one buyer and one seller for every trade. Every single one.
24. "Investors are fleeing the market."
Every stock is owned by someone all the time.
Just some clarification on my part. When I talk about TSLA following NFLX's price movement, I mean that we see a sharp drop like we all ready have (and who knows, possibly more), see a bottoming out and sideways movement, then a reversal that brings us back to the 160s and beyond. I don't mean to say that TSLA will drop all the way back to the 30s and trade in that range for a year before we see it back to where we are now. If a cup and handle plays out it will be within a matter of months, for example by Q4 2013 earnings and not get dragged out all the way to Q1 2015 earnings.
If/when we see TSLA get down to $109/the 200-day MA, I too think we might finally see some sort of support with buyers coming back in at a bargain. Based on technicals in this area, we'll probably get a tight range of 104-116 for a couple of weeks while testing the support and resistance levels before it either drifts lower or break resistance and start the move to the upside. Of course at that point, technicals will break again but it will hopefully favor the upside.
I think it'll be not until Q4 results we see potential positive catalysts (no more fires, no significant cancellations). NHTSA coming out with a directive is still a risk in the meantime.
Has anyone noticed how the FUD-slingers like to keep quoting each others negative projections in the hope that visitors will take these words of "more price drop to come" as TMC sentiment? I don't mind a member expressing a negative thought. What bothers me is when they keep repeating the same negatives ten times or more, at which time it has long transformed from information into advertising.
Then there's the curious case of MSMX2014. On page 1350 of this forum he used the name "scottcouto" and claimed to have lost hundreds of thousands of dollars after buying at $137. When a person changes his name, however, the previous posts take on the new name, thus identifying MSMX2014 as the previous Scottcouto. Under either name, however, he continues to serve as an echo to justthateasy and others who advertise their negative messages with tiring regularity.
Offer us something new and insightful and I will listen to both the positive and the negative. Advertise the same FUD again and again and you become a sorry distraction to an otherwise useful forum.
Then there's the curious case of MSMX2014. On page 1350 of this forum he used the name "scottcouto" and claimed to have lost hundreds of thousands of dollars after buying at $137. When a person changes his name, however, the previous posts take on the new name, thus identifying MSMX2014 as the previous Scottcouto. Under either name, however, he continues to serve as an echo to justthateasy and others who advertise their negative messages with tiring regularity.
Offer us something new and insightful and I will listen to both the positive and the negative. Advertise the same FUD again and again and you become a sorry distraction to an otherwise useful forum.
Now, Papafox, I don't really know either of them, but it seems to me you are doing justthateasy an injustice with that comparison. From what I have seen he tries to express a sincere opinion (which one may not like) and he appears to be certainly more knowledgeable than myself so I take his views seriously although not necessarily religiously. And so far as I can tell he used the same handle consistently over 200 posts?
Well founded opinion is necessary to allow if we wish to avoid becoming an echo chamber. And that would not benefit anyone. Dont want to hear it? Tune out. Unfortunately, that seems to be what many clever folks with good input have done, to the detriment of this discussion.
$0.02
MartinAustin
Active Member
I also think justthateasy is a legit poster because they have been around a long time and made 200 posts. They would have thrown out of here long ago if they were a scammer. Their posts aren't universally negative.
I think TSLA has support around the $120 level. Haven't seen it go much lower than that and it regularly spends time at $122/$124. I don't believe it will fall to the $109/$110 level.
I think TSLA has support around the $120 level. Haven't seen it go much lower than that and it regularly spends time at $122/$124. I don't believe it will fall to the $109/$110 level.
woof:
8. "More buyers than sellers."
This is the equivalent of saying someone has more mothers than fathers. There's one buyer and one seller for every trade. Every single one.
Well, if some institution offers a block of 20,000 shares and you have 20 people buying 100 share blocks each, you get more buyers than sellers.
8. "More buyers than sellers."
This is the equivalent of saying someone has more mothers than fathers. There's one buyer and one seller for every trade. Every single one.
Well, if some institution offers a block of 20,000 shares and you have 20 people buying 100 share blocks each, you get more buyers than sellers.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Just on the battery size discussion (though why this is all in the short term thread is beyond me). I think the reasonable size of battery is inversely proportional to the density of superchargers. In regions outside of supercharger coverage (all of EU for example right now and even after Winter 2015 still eastern europe etc) the large battery is a must. Driving 700km to get from point A to point B is not unheard of (if I want to go to a dogshow in Lithuania I start very early in the morning or the previous day and drive the whole 700km distance). Now with Model S I need in winter two full tanks for it. Charging infrastructure is Type-II connector at best and that gives me a full tank in single charger mode in 8h. I'm not going to wait at a charger for 8 hours, that's overnight charging. So now with Model S I need to either rent another car or do an extra overnight stay in the middle (both ways). With a 500 mile battery (800km one) I might squeeze the 700km out of it, then charge overnight at my destination to get the charge back.
The current 85kWh battery is barely enough to do a simple trip Tallinn-Tartu that is 190km distance between cities. Going back and forth is 380km or well within the range of the car in summer, but in winter with -20C and heating the 380km will be a close call. And at -20C I'm really not that interested in sitting somewhere charging. Again, it's the slow chargers that are the issue and AC charging is slow no matter how you look at it, it's only good to get a bit extra (30-40km), not for majority of tank.
Now if the superchargers are at 100 mile intervals, then indeed we don't need anything beyond 200 miles as then we can even skip one SC and charging 20 minutes every 100 miles is not a bad way to travel. But as long as that is not the case in certain regions the larger battery packs are very very useful. Gasoline cars still have the advantage of 5 minute topup and the only way to compete with that is to have a bigger battery pack or very fast chargers and so far the only one with fast chargers is Tesla with superchargers and they don't exist yet in EU and will take I think a good decade to reach real level of density that covers almost all travels...
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Also, if there are more sellers offering to sell than buyers willing to buy, then the sellers drive the price down competing for the few buyers and the buyers have a wider choice therefore they can ask for smaller prices. While every trade has two partners it doesn't mean that on the market there are equal amount.
The current 85kWh battery is barely enough to do a simple trip Tallinn-Tartu that is 190km distance between cities. Going back and forth is 380km or well within the range of the car in summer, but in winter with -20C and heating the 380km will be a close call. And at -20C I'm really not that interested in sitting somewhere charging. Again, it's the slow chargers that are the issue and AC charging is slow no matter how you look at it, it's only good to get a bit extra (30-40km), not for majority of tank.
Now if the superchargers are at 100 mile intervals, then indeed we don't need anything beyond 200 miles as then we can even skip one SC and charging 20 minutes every 100 miles is not a bad way to travel. But as long as that is not the case in certain regions the larger battery packs are very very useful. Gasoline cars still have the advantage of 5 minute topup and the only way to compete with that is to have a bigger battery pack or very fast chargers and so far the only one with fast chargers is Tesla with superchargers and they don't exist yet in EU and will take I think a good decade to reach real level of density that covers almost all travels...
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Also, if there are more sellers offering to sell than buyers willing to buy, then the sellers drive the price down competing for the few buyers and the buyers have a wider choice therefore they can ask for smaller prices. While every trade has two partners it doesn't mean that on the market there are equal amount.
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