Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[sleepyhead]

Yes, yes, I knew you were kidding. But I'd still like to know the answer to my question. I know what I think, but was interested in how others defined the term.

A "weak long" is someone who sells their shares too quick to take a profit or to limit a loss. If you are a believer and long term investor you should buy and hold and not let short term price movements influence your decisions.

E.g. if Tesla blows out earnings then shorts will have to cover. If there are a lot of weak longs then the short squeeze might drive the price up 10% - 20%. But if nobody wanted to sell then the price would have to keep going up 50% or more resulting in a violent short squeeze. There will always be weak longs though.

 

[Zythryn]

...
Part of me says I don't need to be risky anymore as I made enough to get my Model S but the other part of me says that a Model X would be really nice to own in addition to the Model S Ahh! new ATH again...$143.43

I'm hoping TSLA will pay for my net zero energy (including the cars) house. However, it has a ways to go before that happens;-)

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

A "weak long" is someone who sells their shares too quick to take a profit or to limit a loss. If you are a believer and long term investor you should buy and hold and not let short term price movements influence your decisions.

E.g. if Tesla blows out earnings then shorts will have to cover. If there are a lot of weak longs then the short squeeze might drive the price up 10% - 20%. But if nobody wanted to sell then the price would have to keep going up 50% or more resulting in a violent short squeeze. There will always be weak longs though.

That's why I'm not going to sell my stock for many years and keep it as my core position. Buying and selling options won't affect the share price. Well, it isn't supposed to but you know what I mean...

 

[DaveT]

I'm tossing out a post-Q2 scenario... any thoughts?

We go into Q2 earnings at $145+ share price.
Earnings is very good (5150 cars delivered, 22,500 guidance, good profit/rev/GM, etc), but not complete blowout.
We see a squeeze of sorts and stock opens at $155+ and then goes up to $175 within 3 days.
Then, stock drops in following week to $135-140 as people realize earnings was good but company is still in similar position as before.

disclaimer: i'm not forecasting this scenario as happening, but just bringing it up as a possibility to stir discussion.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I'm hoping TSLA will pay for my net zero energy (including the cars) house. However, it has a ways to go before that happens;-)

Nice! I like that goal. I may have to adopt it myself. I'm buying all the $190 weeklies! All of them! j/k (i'll laugh if in retrospect I should have done this)

P.S. I like the name of your cars!

 

[Zythryn]

Nice! I like that goal. I may have to adopt it myself. I'm buying all the $190 weeklies! All of them! j/k (i'll laugh if in retrospect I should have done this)

P.S. I like the name of your cars!

Thank you
I actually am being very conservative. I think the better than expectations 2nd quarter results are already baked into the price. If TSLA misses, matches, or narrowly beats the stock will take a hit.
I'm not counting on anything, but will take advantage of any dips in price.

 

[ShortSlaver]

A "weak long" is someone who sells their shares too quick to take a profit or to limit a loss. If you are a believer and long term investor you should buy and hold and not let short term price movements influence your decisions.

E.g. if Tesla blows out earnings then shorts will have to cover. If there are a lot of weak longs then the short squeeze might drive the price up 10% - 20%. But if nobody wanted to sell then the price would have to keep going up 50% or more resulting in a violent short squeeze. There will always be weak longs though.

I agree. However it isn't crazy to limit risk either after such an amazing run of insane ups and downs so far.

I do think stock is the place to be finally. Option calls are so expensive. I'm not selling covered calls but I don't like the call prices either.

A good strategy, IMO, right now for those that have been since TSLA was < 40 and still holding is to buy some 120 or 115 PUT's I think for AUG....possibly SEP.

 

[FredTMC]

I'm tossing out a post-Q2 scenario... any thoughts?

We go into Q2 earnings at $145+ share price.
Earnings is very good (5150 cars delivered, 22,500 guidance, good profit/rev/GM, etc), but not complete blowout.
We see a squeeze of sorts and stock opens at $155+ and then goes up to $175 within 3 days.
Then, stock drops in following week to $135-140 as people realize earnings was good but company is still in similar position as before.

disclaimer: i'm not forecasting this scenario as happening, but just bringing it up as a possibility to stir discussion.

I agree with this. Likely. I'd love a base around $140 in the weeks after earnings. Stock will need to consolidate and form a base at some point post-Q2.

 

[Citizen-T]

I think it is fare to say that investors liked the options/price changes.

 

[FredTMC]

New ATH again. $144.33

 

[uselesslogin]

With the bull rush before earnings if there is any slowing to this run up its only going to be a flat market day or slightly down. (i guess you could see alot of profit taking tomorrow if the stock is slow, but i doubt it.)
I wouldn't be expecting a Tesla Tuesday this week.

The Monday before the Q1 May earnings report was a huge gain followed by a Tesla Tuesday. I'm actually hoping on tomorrow and Wednesday being down at least back to like $139 but either way...

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Felt a bit of vertigo and took good short-term profits at $143.89. Will jump in with more after a post-earnings correction (wishful thinking )

 

[marvinat0rz]

I haven't been bothered to register an options account, since I'm not a big fan of speculating with options at the current volatility. But this price level is making me nervous, so at this point I really wish I'd have the possibility to buy some insurance. 28% tax on profits in Norway would make it a very painful proposition to sell part of my position.

 

[sleepyhead]

Felt a bit of vertigo and took good short-term profits at $143.89. Will jump in with more after a post-earnings correction (wishful thinking )

Good job on taking profit.

Good luck on buying back cheaper.

 

[fjm9898]

The Monday before the Q1 May earnings report was a huge gain followed by a Tesla Tuesday. I'm actually hoping on tomorrow and Wednesday being down at least back to like $139 but either way...

This is true, but now there is alot more attention on the stock then their used to be so this might help fuel a bull run into ER. But who really knows, the market is going to do what its going to do. I could easy see a pull back tomorrow and a small run on wednesday back to this level as people will have all their bets in.

 

[Citizen-T]

I had to sell half my Aug 140s at $12.50. I may regret that if there is a big jump after earnings, but I bought them at $2.25...so can't complain too much.

 

[Toolie]

Google calendar is showing the following event. Does anyone know what this is ?

Aug 13, 2013
TESLA MOTORS INC at JPMorgan Auto Conference - 4:00PM EDT

 

[sleepyhead]

Google calendar is showing the following event. Does anyone know what this is ?

Aug 13, 2013
TESLA MOTORS INC at JPMorgan Auto Conference - 4:00PM EDT

These are just events that analysts put together for their clients.

 

[austinEV]

Got to love the ATH to the penny close at 4pm...

 

[c041v]

Google calendar is showing the following event. Does anyone know what this is ?

Aug 13, 2013
TESLA MOTORS INC at JPMorgan Auto Conference - 4:00PM EDT

I was also wondering about that this morning. Not sure.

Unloaded some Sep 150's for a 110% return just now. I may regret it tomorrow, but realized profits are just so much better than the paper variety. Besides, Tesla Tuesdays are a strange thing.