Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[ShortSlaver]

Totally agree with main point, can never predict. There's just a big piece of stock movement right now that has nothing to do with fundamentals of Tesla. That non fundamentals are at play I think we all are aware of... what may be masked though, is that some of this move is not about traders, and short squeezes. Some of it is about fundamentals, improved with several developments the past six weeks... information from earnings call, Consumer Reports (this will really affect N.Am. sales, it is the most respected consumers buying guide in the U.S.), sinking in of prior information (i.e. lease announcement, credible that it can have a real dent in making S a car for "the 10%"), and change in the conversation about Tesla (analysts now can talk valuation based on Gen III volumes, $5-7 eps within a 5 years without risk of being dismissed as foolish).

So yeah, crazy volatility, who knows, but underlying value can support $75 now.

$75 might be fair, still not a value by any means. I'd hope to see it go down to $65-$68 to be a value. But I don't expect a TSLA value play anytime soon. Perhaps a major correction that goes too far the other way will create a short buying opportunity in the $60's, but I think a jump to $110 is far more likely at this point. Took the drop past $90 really well and showing a lot of strength. Then again, people just can't stop shorting this thing creating pressure as they run to cover in the volatility.

The thing is, there's still a lot that can set TSLA back. They have a single supplier for many of their parts and they note this over and over in their risk assessment this could delay things. There is just a lot of things that can set it back. Obviously none of that is priced in right now. I'll keep a small position (sold most of it) and have put my money into far less interesting things biding time if there's an opportunity to get a value on TSLA again.

 

[SteveG3]

$75 might be fair, still not a value by any means. I'd hope to see it go down to $65-$68 to be a value. But I don't expect a TSLA value play anytime soon. Perhaps a major correction that goes too far the other way will create a short buying opportunity in the $60's, but I think a jump to $110 is far more likely at this point. Took the drop past $90 really well and showing a lot of strength. Then again, people just can't stop shorting this thing creating pressure as they run to cover in the volatility.

The thing is, there's still a lot that can set TSLA back. They have a single supplier for many of their parts and they note this over and over in their risk assessment this could delay things. There is just a lot of things that can set it back. Obviously none of that is priced in right now. I'll keep a small position (sold most of it) and have put my money into far less interesting things biding time if there's an opportunity to get a value on TSLA again.

ShortSlaver I think we actually see it pretty much the same way, just used terms a little differently. I think the value can support $75, I didn't say that would be a great entry point. For some friends sake, I'm hoping the stock does over-correct into the 60s, that would be a good price to buy at this point. My friends keep asking me if it's too late to buy here- I kind of cringe. At $75 I feel okay, saying, sure, you can start a position here.

fwiw, good point about risk factors. They can bite out of nowhere, and I made a list of my top 6 or 7 this week to help keep my head about me and giddy friends.

 

[Don Shin]

There were no shares available to short (either through Fidelity or E-Trade), so there is definitely a lot of shorting still- though, who knows at what price...

 

[avatar]

Not sure if anyone cares but folks should be REALLY cautious about entering into new positions of TSLA (short or long or anything else ) right now. If you have a stock position, hold your position with a stop loss limit on a price you can be at peace with. If you don't have a position don't start a new one. There is high risk of getting greedy and losing one's shirt right now.

The long term fundamentals of TSLA is very very sound. All the ups and downs are pure noise right now. In 1 year $100 or even $150 will reflect the fundamental price not speculative price. I get concerned when I see posts where people are on the edge of their seats plowing in their savings to make a profit at $90 - $97 fluctuations.

 

[gregincal]

Not sure if anyone cares but folks should be REALLY cautious about entering into new positions of TSLA (short or long or anything else ) right now. If you have a stock position, hold your position with a stop loss limit on a price you can be at peace with. If you don't have a position don't start a new one. There is high risk of getting greedy and losing one's shirt right now.

The long term fundamentals of TSLA is very very sound. All the ups and downs are pure noise right now. In 1 year $100 or even $150 will reflect the fundamental price not speculative price. I get concerned when I see posts where people are on the edge of their seats plowing in their savings to make a profit at $90 - $97 fluctuations.

In a stock you believe in I really feel a stop loss order is insane. If the stock really drops then it's a opportunity to buy more, not sell. I can see people not being able to resist selling when it gets really high, but only sell on a drop if you no longer believe in the company. Otherwise stick it out and wait for it to go back up.

 

[kenliles]

Why are you guessing the run is done? As far as I can see, the run is done when volume returns to normal, and that definitely hasn't happened yet. I'm not saying what will happen, but every time the stock calms a little people seem to say "well it's over" and then the stock goes nuts again.

I think the headwind is they have to convince the upcoming quarter losses are just building margin efficiency. The run up forcing the shorts to cover was overplay on a surprise earnings report that won't repeat for a while- so I think close to $100 per share you've priced in both upside long and an early segment of short covering , so I think we cool from here (not saying we won't short squeeze some more - volumes are still very strong). The risk reward has flipped hitting into $90+ especially since the price support is being carried by those who believe(d) Tesla will fail. I think there are many who will believe this going forward and the behavior we'll see over the next 2 years will be a series of large squeezes like this one- but not a massive squeeze because believing in an EV world view takes a long time to cultivate.

Just my thoughts and I have to act on them- Holding my stock position through all of it- just pulling the options for now, collecting profits for the next one. Looking for the pullback to produce an upper $60s -$70s opportunity. I no longer believe in the $50s scenario. But this Tuesday morning push (per past behavior) might be the best run at $100 for now, albeit end of week run of the shorts may do it again.

 

[Citizen-T]

A note from Cramer. Will give you a Tesla grin: Cramer: What's Really Driving Tesla? - TheStreet

 

[rolosrevenge]

In a stock you believe in I really feel a stop loss order is insane. If the stock really drops then it's a opportunity to buy more, not sell. I can see people not being able to resist selling when it gets really high, but only sell on a drop if you no longer believe in the company. Otherwise stick it out and wait for it to go back up.

Unless you have all your money in the stock, then you can sell while retaining profits, and buy back more after the price drops some more.

 

[aznt1217]

A note from Cramer. Will give you a Tesla grin: Cramer: What's Really Driving Tesla? - TheStreet

That's not even building in a Supercharger announcement. I'm staying long for a while on Tesla.

 

[gregincal]

Unless you have all your money in the stock, then you can sell while retaining profits, and buy back more after the price drops some more.

But what if the price doesn't drop some more? If you didn't want to sell at $90 I don't see why you would want to sell at $60. I've seen too many people sell when a stock drops and buy when it goes up and just lose money, and too many people complain when their stop loss triggers on a momentary dip just before a big recovery.

 

[jeffro01]

My inexperience is going to show here but it looks like things have taken a turn... I should have gotten out while I could but there is no use getting out now, might as well hope this is a "standard tuesday pullback"...

Jeff

 

[deonb]

My inexperience is going to show here but it looks like things have taken a turn... I should have gotten out while I could but there is no use getting out now, might as well hope this is a "standard tuesday pullback"...

Jeff

It's a Tuesday all right. EOD should be a good time to buy in.

 

[hershey101]

It's a Tuesday all right. EOD should be a good time to buy in.

Yes, however keep in mind that many people are expecting this short squeeze to eventually end (probably this week) and have close stop loss orders, so while the Tuseday 3-stooges effect usually results in a good buying opertunity for the last 30 min, tomorrow morning we might see a continued sell-off. No major move up implies no one is going to get margin called tomorrow, and more people will look to taking profits. Unless we have a tweet from Elon saying that the supercharger announcement is tomorrow or Thursday (It's going to be Thurs. imo), the stock will easily start cascading down. I'm happy either way, if it moves up, I'll sell the remaining position I have open, otherwise, its time to buy back in.

 

[FVO]

It's a Tuesday all right. EOD should be a good time to buy in.

EOD? can i guess "Extreme Opposite Direction"?

 

[twinklejet]

It's a Tuesday all right. EOD should be a good time to buy in.

Can somebody explain this "Tuesday" effect? Or is it all just "pixie dust magic" at work ?

- - - Updated - - -

EOD? can i guess "Extreme Opposite Direction"?

End of day i think

 

[hershey101]

Can somebody explain this "Tuesday" effect? Or is it all just "pixie dust magic" at work ?

- - - Updated - - -



End of day i think

Yes End of Day.

And tuesday effect is explained in the Naked Short thread (a very good read)

 

[avatar]

I don't think this is a regular downturn. The squeeze is ending. We are past the peak. i expect more volatility until the price stabilizes around $70 - $80 range. I say this because over $90 MM shares have traded hands since the earnings call. The party is over folks. The music has stopped. THe shorts got clobbered. Its time to look beyond the epic short squeeze now for the right long term price to get into.

 

[davidg11]

I'm agnostic as to where the stock price goes on a day to day basis because Musk is a genius and the stock will follow...(well "up" is nice...lol), but I do know the volume in the last 4 trading days will exceed 100 million shares trading hands when this day ends. There are not 100 million shares in the float. My guess is that 1/4 of that volume are new long positions. That evaporates all float. This is a game to the MM's. However we know they are losing this game because they keep gapping up the share price each morning on the open. If there were really net sellers, we would see a gapping down of the stock price. This is not just simple short covering. It is the loss of supply of shares to the MM's.

Remember, we were trading in this range yesterday ($83-$85), so the only stop losses being hit today are from daytraders. This is an artificial looking selloff at $83-$84 range. Smart money is adding to their position here.

 

[kenliles]

I don't think this is a regular downturn. The squeeze is ending. We are past the peak. i expect more volatility until the price stabilizes around $70 - $80 range. I say this because over $90 MM shares have traded hands since the earnings call. The party is over folks. The music has stopped. THe shorts got clobbered. Its time to look beyond the epic short squeeze now for the right long term price to get into.

I'm in agreement here per my other posts. there may be a short run on friday pre-weekend, but outside of that I think we are shorted out for now; Stock is still massively shorted and will remain so for a while, so other squeezes will apply later- but I think we cool off here for next couple of months while the market absorbs the fact that the next earnings call will return to a loss while Tesla builds the mfg margins to where they need to be. We also might get a kick or 2 on remaining Elon announcements giving some folks to take profits. I'm going to just hold stock position while watching for Call option reentry point

 

[hershey101]

The options market seems to be indicating further downside. We are still above open yesterday by 5%+ but calls are trading lower looking at the bid/ask spreads