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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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from a San Jose Mercury News article, Tesla pulled no punches in its response to Reuters,

"The company called the Reuters report "misleading," adding: "It appears that their objective was simply to find some way to put the words 'fire' and 'Tesla' in the same headline. The journalists and editors who created the story have patently ignored hundreds of deaths and thousands of serious injuries unequivocally caused by gasoline car fires, instead choosing to write about a garage fire where there were no injuries and the cause was clearly not the car.""



I read this elsewhere yesterday also and love that Tesla is calling them out. It just hasn't been quoted in the articles and glad Dana Hull is including it. Her coverage of Tesla is great. I've lost a lot of respect for Reuters. I hope Elon comes down hard on them also like he did the NYT.
 
I live in Italy and for this reason I don't know much about the USA but from what I read to me it looks very evident that in the USA there is a big political crashing about the matter of "driving electric" and the TSLA stock problems are related to this political crashing.
Am I wrong?

The USA has become very divided along political lines, and there are many people on the conservative bench who see anything that might be environmentally beneficial as a threat to the freedom to pollute as much as they want. Tesla also received government loans (now paid back in full) and Tesla buyers get tax credits. This angers the free market proponents, and I think it is safe to say that lots of these people want Tesla to fail in brining BEVs to the mass market.
 
I'm involved in two other Tesla threads on other forums and I'm happy to report that this latest attack on Tesla didn't get a single mention. Unfortunately (or fortunately) the only place I've seen it is in this thread. I think we are our own worst enemies around here sometimes. ;)

And many sources may have even gotten it from this very thread. Meanwhile after weeks of a few posts a day, there's been something like 60 posts today about absolutely nothing. The report talks about Tesla charging equipment and the Model S in question doesn't even have charging equipment (it was an outlet, not a charger). And yet everyone here is grousing about it, repeating stale crap which doesn't need to be repeated, putting two words which don't belong in the same sentence into the same sentence, and otherwise seemingly trying to fuel hysteria. And the worst part is that some people who should know better think that the presence of an EV in the house somehow has something to do with this. We might as well say that this wouldn't have happened if the house itself didn't exist or didn't have electricity. Outlets (again, not "charging equipment") which are not installed properly do not work properly. Duh.
 
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@SteveG3

I am sorry for what is happening. Hope that the situation will improve soon. I am not saying it for the stock but because I think that such a good automaker like Tesla giving us the chance to have electric cars whose quality is comparable or even better with respect to big ICE automakers (like BMW and Mercedes for instance) should be succesfull.

fwiw, Raffy, while I'll admit in the moment reading some of these articles raises by blood pressure, I don't think it will effect Tesla's business (thank goodness the fires didn't happen in the fall of 2012 rather than 2013). In some ways, in a few years time, I think it will make Tesla and Elon something of folk heroes for sticking with facts and reason rather than running scared of "the powers that be,"... there are people across the political spectrum frustrated with the political game playing. In the end, Tesla may actually sell more cars in the U.S. because of it. I don't doubt some of these very "powers that be" knocking Tesla today will eventually try to pridefully identify themselves with Tesla with the national anthem playing in the background.

Sounds like the mud slinging reaches the media in Europe... any sense of the extent it is taken at face value?
 
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And many sources may have even gotten it from this very thread. Meanwhile after weeks of a few posts a day, there's been something like 60 posts today about absolutely nothing. The report talks about Tesla charging equipment and the Model S in question doesn't even have charging equipment (it was an outlet, not a charger). And yet everyone here is grousing about it, repeating stale crap which doesn't need to be repeated, putting two words which don't belong in the same sentence into the same sentence, and otherwise seemingly trying to fuel hysteria. And the worst part is that some people who should know better think that the presence of an EV in the house somehow has something to do with this. We might as well say that this wouldn't have happened if the house itself didn't exist or didn't have electricity. Outlets (again, not "charging equipment") which are not installed properly do not work properly. Duh.

Yes, I agree, as do a lot of others of us. What I personally would like to address, somehow, is two words that should be posted everywhere: "irresponsible" and "journalism". I wish, I wish, there were a place where people could go to address this ridiculous system we have, where someone who somehow got through journalism school has no thought of verification or research. They publish an old story, obviously for no other reason than for sensationalism. It is not hard to think that this effort is paid for by anyone who might profit, from stock sellers to corrupt industry. I want to complain, I want to vote them out, I want them to stop. I am frustrated.

And don't get me started on marketing and advertising!!
 
fwiw, Raffy, while I'll admit in the moment reading some of these articles raises by blood pressure, I don't think it will effect Tesla's business (thank goodness the fires didn't happen in the fall of 2012 rather than 2013). In some ways, in a few years time, I think it will make Tesla and Elon something of folk heroes for sticking with facts and reason rather than running scared of "the powers that be,"... there are people across the political spectrum frustrated with the political game playing. In the end, Tesla may actually sell more cars in the U.S. because of it. I don't doubt some of these very "powers that be" knocking Tesla today will eventually try to pridefully identify themselves with Tesla with the national anthem playing in the background.

Sounds like the mud slinging reaches the media in Europe... any sense of the extent it is taken at face value?

I agree with you. Had the fires occurred in an era when mainstream users/consumers didn't have access to the wealth of information we now have available to us on the internet, this attack, as weak as it was, would have the potential to really do damage not just to TSLA but EVs in general. Thankfully, we have moved well beyond those days and the vast majority of EV consumers/target consumers will mostly shrug this FUD off... that said, it may actually help in the long term if it means consumers pay more attention to electrical workmanship and ultimately reduce the number of these events in the future.
 
The USA has become very divided along political lines, and there are many people on the conservative bench who see anything that might be environmentally beneficial as a threat to the freedom to pollute as much as they want. Tesla also received government loans (now paid back in full) and Tesla buyers get tax credits. This angers the free market proponents, and I think it is safe to say that lots of these people want Tesla to fail in brining BEVs to the mass market.

This is very true. You know what else is very interesting. For purchasers of solar energy systems, which receive many great tax benefits the demographics and out sales point to a higher percentage of consecutive buyers.

When selling solar energy systems I don't talk climate change until I know for sure the persons position because I have just mentioned the phrase in passing before and have lost potential customers because I brought up that subject.

To get their position I usually attempt to bring up some strange weather phenomenon that has happened recently and if they agree with climate change they will usually bring it up on their own. If they don't agree they blow it off when I mention the massive drought, tornado outbreak, snowstorm, etc.

But the same people that are so against the incentives also seem to be the first ones to scoop them up.

I am am not trying to start a political battle but just mentioning my own personal observations and demographics research of an industry I am passionate about and put food on the table with.
 
Thanks for posting the charts and your opinions, just ignore all the people who get butt-hurt when you dare to say something about TSLA potentially going down in price in the very short term. This is the short-term thread and all views are greatly appreciated.

But I am not quite sure that other people are looking at the same channels that you are (I really have no idea). What I think is the real resistance here is the 50 day moving average, and as soon as TSLA bounced off of the 50 day, this article came out.

I also disagree with your support at 200 day moving average, since this negative catalyst is just not strong enought to get us all the way down to the 200 day moving avg. I think that the 20 day moving average, which coincides with very strong support for other reasons, at around $135 will be the lowest TSLA goes without any negative catalysts or market correction.

Just my opinion, but either one of us can be correct. Or we will both be wrong and TSLA goes up, but I don't see that happening without a positive catalyst (I am talking past $155).


At this juncture, I think the one thing we can both agree on the fact that either one of us could be correct (or incorrect) in the direction that TSLA goes in the short-term due to the unpredictable nature of the market. With that said, exchanging ideas in forums like these helps a lot in decision making whether an investor is short or long term.

Thanks to you, I went ahead and added a 20-day and 150-day MA to my chart. I now see what you're referring to with picking up shares around 135. From the look of how this channel has been played out before, I think 135 is a good area to pick up shares if you're looking to scalp and cash in on a dead cat bounce. Falling to the 200-day MA is a possibility that I put out there as a "worse case scenario" at best. If TSLA does continue to retrace back there, I doubt it will happen as suddenly as I drew it on the chart.

The one thing certain about TSLA is it's been all over the place since Q3 earnings that it's been difficult to establish a proper channel due to the steep drops and steep climbs that create wild swings in both directions.
 
As a young man I was prone to wildness, drunkenness, and fist fights. At the moment before a fight started, there was always a tremendous adrenaline rush. A mixture of fear, aggression, and the violence of the first blow.

What amazed me was that whether I was hit, or whether I hit someone else, at that moment a tremendous calm came over me. It got down to fighting with clarity.

A warrior with clarity is dangerous.

What I respect about the shorts is that they fight with clarity. They are organized, and plan their attacks.

Longs are armed with reason and common sense. But we are not fighting a good fight.
 
OK then........Based on the discussion here what do you all believe will happen with the stock tomorrow? If there is no catalyst to push the stock dramatically in either direction I see dip into 137-38 range followed by rally to put us back where we will start the day...140-142. I think there are still enough buyers out there not to allow another 4-5% drop.

As to the discussion about forums/threads/what should be posted. I welcome the discussion, both pro and con about what affects the stock short term here. I did very well before ERQ2 on Sleepy and daveTs 'buy' and saved most of those gains when I bailed after the Kentucky f**e (I don't like to use the word!) hit this forum.
 
And if this sell-off is unwarranted (which it is IMO), then we should all be happy and cheering and taking the advantage to purchase some shares cheap. There are a lot of people who missed this 30% rally in just 3 weeks and will be able to get back into the stock a lot cheaper than just two days ago (10% cheaper).

Stocks don't go up vertically and it was inevitable for TSLA to current in the short-run. All stocks pullback 10% after such a quick run due to profit taking, even without such negative catalysts. TSLA was going to go down no matter what. This is a healthy pullback for TSLA and a great buying opportunity. I bought some weekly calls because I think that the pullback is overdone.

If I am wrong then I will gladly buy more TSLA at $135. If there really is no substance to this story then embrace the opportunity to go long TSLA. I see absolutely nothing wrong in taking advantage of media throwing FUD out there to beat down TSLA in the short-run. We all know that TSLA is going to win in the long run anyway.
 
OK then........Based on the discussion here what do you all believe will happen with the stock tomorrow? If there is no catalyst to push the stock dramatically in either direction I see dip into 137-38 range followed by rally to put us back where we will start the day...140-142. I think there are still enough buyers out there not to allow another 4-5% drop.

As to the discussion about forums/threads/what should be posted. I welcome the discussion, both pro and con about what affects the stock short term here. I did very well before ERQ2 on Sleepy and daveTs 'buy' and saved most of those gains when I bailed after the Kentucky f**e (I don't like to use the word!) hit this forum.

140 seemed pretty strong today, and the stock seemed to drop in sympathy with other auto stocks. So I don't know, it depends on what happens to the whole auto industry. I can't imagine people deciding to suddenly start paying anything in the 120s or possibly 130s for TSLA again just a couple weeks after we collectively realized that price was unreasonably low. Especially with good news since then (tax breaks, economy improving). But then, since when has anyone been rational.

By the way, using "f**e" instead of (you know what) is all I asked for. In discussing any of these issues I make it a point not to associate words which are not associated.
 
And if this sell-off is unwarranted (which it is IMO), then we should all be happy and cheering and taking the advantage to purchase some shares cheap. There are a lot of people who missed this 30% rally in just 3 weeks and will be able to get back into the stock a lot cheaper than just two days ago (10% cheaper).

Stocks don't go up vertically and it was inevitable for TSLA to current in the short-run. All stocks pullback 10% after such a quick run due to profit taking, even without such negative catalysts. TSLA was going to go down no matter what. This is a healthy pullback for TSLA and a great buying opportunity. I bought some weekly calls because I think that the pullback is overdone.

If I am wrong then I will gladly buy more TSLA at $135. If there really is no substance to this story then embrace the opportunity to go long TSLA. I see absolutely nothing wrong in taking advantage of media throwing FUD out there to beat down TSLA in the short-run. We all know that TSLA is going to win in the long run anyway.


One thing I forgot to mention earlier… Do be careful adding shares on these dips because the stochastics indicate that TSLA is still overbought. It might be a better idea and wait for oversold or you might be catching a falling knife.
 
It seemed like $140 support was fairly strong today. It dipped a bit below for a little bit but quickly rallied back above $140. I also bought some weeklies because I don't think we'll go much lower b/c of this particular piece of news. I think it might try to break this support tomorrow but hopefully it can hold. If so, then I think we should be good until the next piece of positive/negative (hopefully something positive like Model X or NHTSA) which might lead to another run in either direction.

It's really interesting b/c a lot of posts I've seen on Twitter and elsewhere people think the car caught on fire. So I think as this gets clarified it should be enough to move things back up a bit. I also thought the CA tax break would be bigger news mainly b/c it stated they're adding capacity to build 35k MORE cars. Maybe it'll take another day or so for this to sink in. There could be more negative news to drive this thing down but I don't think the current news is enough to do so. The Ohio legislation stuff can also be bad news maybe.

Also, it seems like lots of brokers are running out of shares to short. Fidelity shows that it only has 25 shares left. Can anyone else comment on this? If so, does this mean it will be harder for shorts to drive the price down b/c there are less shares to sell short?

I agree with some of the other comments that this can be a good opportunity to take advantage of another run up for those that think it ran up too quickly and missed it. Or it can be the beginning of another downtrend. I'm actually kinda happy TSLA has some volatility and not just some other boring stock that fluctuates half a percent or whatever :)
 
My sister and her husband lost their earnest money on a house purchase because after paying it they realized that the electrical panel is a KNOWN fire hazard and they backed out of the deal.
No EV involved or even intended. The panel manufacturer was Federal Pacific.

Getting tired of the silly arguments on this thread.

The panel was partly why my NEMA 14-50 installation was about $3k.
I told the electrician I wasn't sure if he could fit another 50A breaker in my panel. Besides, I had to replace a breaker in the panel ~ 5 or 6 years ago and it took a lot of searching before I could find a replacement breaker.

He took one look at it and said something like "I wouldn't usually ask a client to replace a breaker box, but that's an old Federal Pacific." He trusted it even less than I did. He removed the old panel, and used the box as a junction box. The new box and panel were placed outside the house. It has room for at least another 50A breaker. In any case, it was worth it to me.

I'm not even going to go any further in the short term thread today. I spend the day wiring up a NEMA 10-30 outlet outside my mobile home. It took my forever, as I had to drill a one inch hole to pass the wiring through the 3/4" conduit. It's on the side of the driveway away from the mobile home and encased in steel. No way could that set any nearby wooden structure on fire.

I question the knowledge of the fire department if they could see that the car only had smoke damage and still thought it could have been responsible for the fire.

If that's the only news for yesterday and today, I'm surprised to see a $10 drop in those days.
 
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