I am not expert on the workings of the NHTSA, but from a general perspective I believe it is correct to state that this organisation is tasked with ensuring that cars do not contain flaws that heighten the risk of harm of passengers and property. Obviously the Model S passes with flying colours (5 ~ 5.4) on the NHTSA tests for a range of official NHTSA accident conditions. No Tesla Models S has spontaneously caught fire, and under extremely unusual accident conditions, the Model S has been proven to reduce the risk of passenger injury, so far to zero. It is hard to imagine that the NHTSA is in the business of issuing a U-Turn on its previous findings or validating unfounded FUD that contradicts the facts of the Model S in relation to the safety of its occupants, which was proven to have been very good indeed, and not bad in the slightest.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I am not expert on the workings of the NHTSA, but from a general perspective I believe it is correct to state that this organisation is tasked with ensuring that cars do not contain flaws that heighten the risk of harm of passengers and property. Obviously the Model S passes with flying colours (5 ~ 5.4) on the NHTSA tests for a range of official NHTSA accident conditions. No Tesla Models S has spontaneously caught fire, and under extremely unusual accident conditions, the Model S has been proven to reduce the risk of passenger injury, so far to zero. It is hard to imagine that the NHTSA is in the business of issuing a U-Turn on its previous findings or validating unfounded FUD that contradicts the facts of the Model S in relation to the safety of its occupants, which was proven to have been very good indeed, and not bad in the slightest.
i think you are right on the money -- as many have speculated before here (in particular, capitalistoppressor), tesla has seen this coming from a mile away. i think jb straubel's comments are worth noting in the article from the atlantic on this new partnership:
a new rapidly growing market for tesla to address? yes please.
surfside
Someone bought a Tesla Model S with bitcoins (is that you TSLAopt? lol):
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...-used-to-buy-a-tesla-analysts-tout-its-value/
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...-used-to-buy-a-tesla-analysts-tout-its-value/
barclays issued a new report today based on a factory tour and meeting with management; there is lots of good information in there:
-panasonic is expected to be fully ramped in its expansion of cell production by 2H’14
-the giga factory would likely take two years to build, and management indicated an announcement about the factory is possible in 2015
-supplier relationships have improved, and there are no production constraints beyond the batteries today
-tesla indicated it is unclear how much demand or even showroom traffic has been impacted by the fires
-tesla expects price reductions from their suppliers beyond 2-4% (typical for auto suppliers) as a result of inefficiencies in its production and higher volumes
near term, the part that is most interesting to me is the fact that panasonic is expected to have completed the ramp of its production by 2H'14. in my mind, that means that at the very least, tesla will be able to begin to test the depth of demand and really ramp capacity for the full second half of the year.
curious to hear others thoughts on any of the above.
surfside
-panasonic is expected to be fully ramped in its expansion of cell production by 2H’14
-the giga factory would likely take two years to build, and management indicated an announcement about the factory is possible in 2015
-supplier relationships have improved, and there are no production constraints beyond the batteries today
-tesla indicated it is unclear how much demand or even showroom traffic has been impacted by the fires
-tesla expects price reductions from their suppliers beyond 2-4% (typical for auto suppliers) as a result of inefficiencies in its production and higher volumes
near term, the part that is most interesting to me is the fact that panasonic is expected to have completed the ramp of its production by 2H'14. in my mind, that means that at the very least, tesla will be able to begin to test the depth of demand and really ramp capacity for the full second half of the year.
curious to hear others thoughts on any of the above.
surfside
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i wonder if Barclays will up its price target anytime soon as a result.
the 2nd half of 2014 is a bit dissappoiinting to me as I thought we'd see a ramp up start at the latest come January, unless perhaps the ramp-up is already beginning and it just takes 6 months or so to get to the full capacity ramp-up. Any battery experts have an opinion?
id also like to see an announcement for he Giga Factory earlier, sometime in 2014 as especially with ths new SolarCity deal there are going to be many more batteriesthat need to be built sooner rather than later.
i just wish I could blink my eyes and it would be one year later I guess.
barclays indicated that tesla expects to ramp production to 600 cars/week by the end of 2013, so they do think that there is upside potential on deliveries in 4Q. however, management further indicated that it is unlikely they will take production beyond 600/week by the end of 2013, as they are continuing to focus on production efficiencies.
surfside
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Agree, it'd be great if Elon starts another 5-part announcement trilogy sometime in May 2014.
Favguy
Member
I think the next huge catalyst for TSLA will be reveal of the final production ready version of the X and a date to start shipping it. Better make sure to be back all in before that, as I think it'll be heading for 300 by then (probably mid 2014) 
I think the next huge catalyst for TSLA will be reveal of the final production ready version of the X and a date to start shipping it. Better make sure to be back all in before that, as I think it'll be heading for 300 by then (probably mid 2014)
Love your optimism but I am just hoping for $200 by mid year. I will take a 35-40% increase over the next 6 months:wink:
I think the next huge catalyst for TSLA will be reveal of the final production ready version of the X and a date to start shipping it. Better make sure to be back all in before that, as I think it'll be heading for 300 by then (probably mid 2014)
One would think that it would be very soon as well, if the timing is simar to that of the MS
MartinAustin
Active Member
I think the next huge catalyst for TSLA will be reveal of the final production ready version of the X and a date to start shipping it. Better make sure to be back all in before that, as I think it'll be heading for 300 by then (probably mid 2014)
Tesla has a stand at the upcoming Detroit Motor Show in about 5 weeks. I can't think of a better time for them to show off the "beta" of the car. After all, they're supposed to be shipping final cars to customers by December.
There could be some misinterpretation here. The Panasonic agreement is for a minimum of 1.88 billion cells over four years. Assuming that 2014 will start at 600 cars a week and it will linearly "fully ramp up" after 6 months, 48 working weeks per year, 80/20% split between 85/60kWh cars and 7104/5328 cells for 85/60kWh batteries would yield 2H'14 production rate of 1508 cars per week, which would be possible only with a 3-shift operation.
Do you have text of actual Barclay note, or this information is coming from a secondary source? There is something missing here.
Here is the equation I've solved to get weekly production rate of 2828:
Weekly production rate at the beginning of 2014: 600 cars/week --> 4,047,000 cells
Fully ramped weekly production rate - Z
1.88 B = (4,047,000 + Z) x 24 / 2 + 168 x Z
Z = 10,174,644 (cells) --> 1508 cars
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I begin to second guess myself... Didn't Elon in the German QA mentioned that there will be enough batteries to build 1200 - 1500 cars per week in 2H'14? So may be Tesla really has plans to add third shift in 2H'14 and ramp up production to 1500 cars per week? This also means that Tesla is shooting to produce in excess of 60,000 cars in 2014! There could be an interesting trading day tomorrow...
Do you have any specific thoughts to share regarding the reported Barclays analyst conclusion that "panasonic is expected to be fully ramped in its expansion of cell production by 2H’14" ?
Wall Street analysts like Dan Galves and the guy from Wedbush are not bots. They "hinted" that they talked to Tesla management and called numbers up to 7000 for Q3.
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