Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[DaveT]

Can you provide updated charts? Did yesterday's gain change your analysis?

I personally cringe when I see the channel charts posted here. The channels are so wide that it's hard to get much value or clarity from them. Also, the charts posted usually look at TSLA from just a the daily view.

Rather, if you're trying to determine a trend (ie., uptrend, sideways, downtrend) I'd suggest look at the 20 day/period ema (exponential moving average) and look at it from different time periods - ie., 4 hour, 1 day, 2 day. This will give you a somewhat decent idea of what direction the trend has been heading in. Then, if you're not familiar with MACD analysis read up on it and learn how to read the MACD histogram and lines. This will help in evaluating the force of momentum.

The 20 day ema flattened out last week on the daily and 4-hour charts. Momentum on the macd reversed last week to positive with a macd centerline crossover. And with yesterday's move, the 20day ema is showing a clear upward movement on the daily as well. Note, a lot of good traders like to only trade in the direction of the overall trend and so with TSLA showing signs of an uptrend this gives them permission to go long in the short-term trades whereas when the trend was downward, they focused more on shorting.

Here's a quick annotated chart I drew up with just the bare essentials of a 20 day ema and macd histogram/lines on the daily chart. Again, looking at it from different time periods is important but I don't have time to draw them out here.

At the moment TSLA is down 6 points for the day and giving back some of the gains from yesterday, so we'll see where it goes from here.

One a side note: on the macd we had a long period of a strong bear (the bull didn't have enough strength to even cross the macd crossover line), then the bull came back strong and broke the back of the bear. The bear could come back but what traders are lookers for is the bear to come back but not be strong enough to crossover the macd crossover line into negative territory, thus it would be a weak bear move. Right when that weak bear move is over and the bull reappears (ie., macd goes in the positive direction) some traders will jump on the trade.

 

[FluxCap]

Awesome analysis, thanks Dave! Out of curiosity what charting tool is that?

 

[DaveT]

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements

Awesome analysis, thanks Dave! Out of curiosity what charting tool is that?

FreeStockCharts.com - Web's Best Streaming Realtime Stock Charts - Free . I removed the extra indicators I use and just drew up the basics to post. For more advanced analysis I'd recommend Tradestation.

 

[Maknyuzz]

Seeing Possible Cup N Handle if we bounce and break 145, next few days.

Also possible Inverse HnS. at 132-133 as support. then maybe bounce to 150s.

Next catalyst NTHSA probe result, Gross Margin Target surpassed, Giga factory progress, and many more.

 

[FredTMC]

Seeing Possible Cup N Handle if we bounce and break 145, next few days.

Also possible Inverse HnS. at 132-133 as support. then maybe bounce to 150s.

Next catalyst NTHSA probe result, Gross Margin Target surpassed, Giga factory progress, and many more.

thx. I was really hoping for NHTSA verdict before year end. It irritates me that NHTSA gave TM until Jan 14th to produce data they requested. That's a great indicator that we aren't getting a verdict before end of year. It's looks as if it's gonna be months till verdict...

 

[Krugerrand]

Seeing Possible Cup N Handle ...

Head and shoulders, cup and saucer, bread and butter...I'm telling you, all I see is one big, fat, dancing Unicorn!

 

[100thMonkey]

Head and shoulders, cup and saucer, bread and butter...I'm telling you, all I see is one big, fat, dancing Unicorn!

what she said!

 

[Cameron]

thx. I was really hoping for NHTSA verdict before year end. It irritates me that NHTSA gave TM until Jan 14th to produce data they requested. That's a great indicator that we aren't getting a verdict before end of year. It's looks as if it's gonna be months till verdict...

I feel like if we don't hear anything from the NHTSA by the end of the year, I would be a little suspicious. It really shouldn't require significantly more time then the German investigation. If the report is anything but flawless too, then there's definitely something fishy is going on. At least thats how I feel. I suppose it would make a great precursor to Q4 though.

 

[NigelM]

what he said!

She....

 

[Curt Renz]

thx. I was really hoping for NHTSA verdict before year end. It irritates me that NHTSA gave TM until Jan 14th to produce data they requested. That's a great indicator that we aren't getting a verdict before end of year. It's looks as if it's gonna be months till verdict...

Elon asked for a full NHTSA investigation and offered complete cooperation weeks ago. The NHTSA chief recently indicated that he was heartened by the degree of cooperation already received. Elon must have known what type of evidence the agency usually requests. It would not surprise me if most of it has already been assembled and will quickly be presented to the NHTSA. A ruling (likely favorable) is quite possible before the end of the year.

 

[AlMc]

Curt, Since you also know about the politics involved. Do you think we will ever get a White House response to the petition we all signed trying to get the executive branch to take sides in the whole 'Tesla sales model' issue?

 

[Jack6591]

Elon asked for a full NHTSA investigation and offered complete cooperation weeks ago. The NHTSA chief recently indicated that he was heartened by the degree of cooperation already received. Elon must have known what type of evidence the agency usually requests. It would not surprise me if most of it has already been assembled and will quickly be presented to the NHTSA. A ruling (likely favorable) is quite possible before the end of the year.

Do you think the data package that was forwarded to the German authorities, is the same data that will be sent to the NHTSA?

 

[sleepyhead]

SolarCity to Use Batteries From Tesla for Energy Storage

SolarCity to Use Batteries From Tesla for Energy Storage - NYTimes.com

This is for commercial building owners and the storage system will be about the size of a small refrigerator.

 

[Convert2013]

SolarCity to Use Batteries From Tesla for Energy Storage - NYTimes.com

This is for commercial building owners and the storage system will be about the size of a small refrigerator.

I think Elon has big energy storage supply plans with his Giga-factory idea. But it will be interesting to see who benefits the most financially from energy storage- Panasonic/LG/Samsung, Tesla, or Solar City.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

SolarCity to Use Batteries From Tesla for Energy Storage - NYTimes.com

This is for commercial building owners and the storage system will be about the size of a small refrigerator.

I imagine that the profit margin on a "battery-only" device would be quite high compared to an entire automobile. Bring on that Giga-factory!

 

[Norse]

I think Elon has big energy storage supply plans with his Giga-factory idea. But it will be interesting to see who benefits the most financially from energy storage- Panasonic/LG/Samsung, Tesla, or Solar City.

Every single human will benefit from this. But obviously I love this one.

 

[AlMc]

I think Elon has big energy storage supply plans with his Giga-factory idea. But it will be interesting to see who benefits the most financially from energy storage- Panasonic/LG/Samsung, Tesla, or Solar City.

Would there be any benefit for Elon establishing yet another company that then builds the Giga Factory? Would he be able to secure another loan/better terms from the Feds with a 'new' company versus under the Tesla or Solar City Umbrella? Does it make sense for him and a few investors to do this as a private company where he sells the battery packs to Solar City/Tesla/MB/Toyota?

 

[Jack6591]

Would there be any benefit for Elon establishing yet another company that then builds the Giga Factory? Would he be able to secure another loan/better terms from the Feds with a 'new' company versus under the Tesla or Solar City Umbrella? Does it make sense for him and a few investors to do this as a private company where he sells the battery packs to Solar City/Tesla/MB/Toyota?

Ultimately, it will be the combination of LED lighting (electrical efficiency products), renewable energy (solar power), and energy storage that will provide energy entrepreneurship. Consider millions of EVs (V2G), millions of homes and businesses with energy storage backup systems for their renewable energy, running at incredible efficiency levels. We have the technology. When the three products are combined, we control energy.

i would like see Elon venture into electrical energy efficiency.

 

[Curt Renz]

Curt, Since you also know about the politics involved. Do you think we will ever get a White House response to the petition we all signed trying to get the executive branch to take sides in the whole 'Tesla sales model' issue?

One possibility is that Elon has signaled to the White House to hold off on a response. While demand exceeds production capabilities, Tesla benefits from the media coverage of a fight with middlemen and their political stooges. The dealers don't really want to sell Tesla cars with little expectation of revenue from parts and service, while cannibalizing their ICE business. They fear the competition. In the meantime without having to advertise, Tesla should be a household name by the time Gen III arrives. In the end the federal courts will invoke the US Constitution's interstate commerce clause and strike down any requirements that out of state manufacturers sell and service through local middlemen.

- - - Updated - - -

Do you think the data package that was forwarded to the German authorities, is the same data that will be sent to the NHTSA?

That may well be the case. I'd be amazed if a US regulator did anything to make its German counterpart look foolish. It would also make their own assessment of the Model S's superior safety and their quick dismissal of the first fire look foolish. And they know their overall boss the president wants to push electric vehicles. A few non-injurious electrical fires due to high-speed accidents should not excite the NHTSA. The viral video of the first fire with the frunk ablaze only looked bad because the firemen treated an electrical fire as a gasoline fire. The press and the FUD spreaders made a mountain out of a molehill. If the NHTSA were to demand a Model S recall, they would have to do so for virtually all cars. I suspect the worst case would be a requirement that the suspension be kept high. That may explain why Tesla was quickly able to disable the ability to lower the car, while saying it will take until January before lowering can become an option. Once the NHTSA absolves Tesla after investigating a mountain of evidence, previously overcautious car buyers and investors will come stampeding to Tesla and the short sellers will again be trapped.

 

[davecolene0606]

SolarCity to Use Batteries From Tesla for Energy Storage - NYTimes.com

This is for commercial building owners and the storage system will be about the size of a small refrigerator.

I would point out that one of the downstream uses for battery packs will be storage. A pack that is no longer useful for a car still has ample capacity for a lower draw application such as storage. I would imagine part of the life cycle of every "used" pack will be in a storage app prior to being recycled. Beginning in 8 years, (warranty life of current packs)there will be a continuous flow of raw materials for storage purposes which will tilt the economics further in favor of solar storage (+1 for SCTY), provide yet another revenue stream for TSLA and perhaps help to offset pack replacement cost adding to the cost effectiveness of EV driving. I sure this has been in the line of thinking for quite some time now.

Dave