Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[SpeedyEddy]

Jan 19 Quad Witching expiry now at 2,883,581 options contracts. There is massive money at stake. Jan 19 Max Pain now at $210 and dropping; expect the SP to stay well below the 200 day MA. Jan 26 Max Pain is $240, so a swift recovery back above the 200 day MA around the earnings call is probable.

TA: On the daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes the 200, 50, and 100 DMA are incredibly tight within about 10% of eachother. This type of correlation across all time-frames is extremely unusual for TSLA. This puts the mean implied volatility under 0.5 for all timeframes (10,20,30,60,90,120,150D). The last time we saw this was Oct 2021, and prior to that Oct 2019. Both preceeded massive runs. Jus' sayin'...

1. jan 19 maxpain is 220 as of yesterday evening (and can not have changed since then)
2. What you state is (roughly) my MA4x Theory on MA 20,50, 200, 365, that were most narrow dec 14 2023, marking the starting point of a big chance of a minimum 25% move within 3 months, so up to 269 or down to 202
see Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House for using MA4X as an acronym for the theory explained here:
#34,720

 

[OrthoSurg]

My sold puts from 5 days ago on NVDA and AAPL are doing extremely well compared to the ones on TSLA

 

[mongo]

1. jan 19 maxpain is 220 as of yesterday evening (and can not have changed since then)

Doesn't the option open interest number update in the morning? Still, it is listed as $220 on
Stock Option Max Pain
(Edited due to originally quoting today's $230 MP)

 

[khill]

Yes. TSLA is in the bottoming window between now and early next week.

Any levels you are watching to go long?

 

[ZenMan]

PPI Cold

 

[Jim Holder]

@dl003 In your opinion should we be selling any rip (it’s going lower as it seeks a bottom) or hold out (pain is ending soon)?

 

[Max Plaid]

Yup PPI as cool as CPI was hot

 

[BornToFly]

PPI came in cold, be we are still down to 220 PM on overblown FUD about China prices and Red Sea delays.

I might need to manage my -215 Puts expiring today....

 

[elasalle]

This is afterCPI print, wonder what his next video (after cold PPI print ) will be like

 

[Max Plaid]

This is afterCPI print, wonder what his next video (after cold PPI print ) will be like

To be fair, the stock market already "took off" the final quarter of 2023, just didn't take TSLA with it. Many stocks and indices hitting ATH or close to...

Right now the Tesla story is sputtering, that's the problem. TSLA is sentiment-driven and right now that sentiment is low, constant price-cuts, FUD, supply-chain issues, doubt on 2024 growth, unhinged posts from Elon, etc

Ask yourself, if you only knew Tesla from what you read in the main-stream media - which is 99% of folks - would you be buying it now?

 

[dl003]

@dl003 In your opinion should we be selling any rip (it’s going lower as it seeks a bottom) or hold out (pain is ending soon)?

I think 217 will be the bottom if we're right now just opening at 220. You can certainly sell the rips like you've always done but I'd size it smaller.

 

[UncaNed]

This is afterCPI print, wonder what his next video (after cold PPI print ) will be like

But won't the red sea Houthi shipping troubles affect many industries and countries across the board, affecting all markets and most shareholders and so have a negative compounding effect?

If not, why not?

Edit- Ah... Thanks @dl003 .

 

[Jim Holder]

I think 217 will be the bottom if we're right now just opening at 220. You can certainly sell the rips like you've always done but I'd size it smaller.

Thank you. Is $217 your line in the sand SL to sell your longs and flip major short?

 

[dl003]

Any levels you are watching to go long?

I'm already short 225 exp next week. Will short more at 217.

 

[CHGolferJim]

If I’m not mistaken I think @tivoboy shared a screenshot a week or two ago of a listing of TSLA options sorted based on best premium deals for the day for selling or buying, but I don’t know the source. Maybe he can share it with us.

Thanks, I figured out how to slice a report out of my broker’s website showing options only which updates values every minute.

 

[SebastienBonny]

Short term positions right now are:
- 01/26 240 -C
- 01/26 220 -P

Sold call is a actually a roll from the end of 23 which netted me about 7.
I sold the put last week for about 5.
Probably not waiting until earnings week to take a new position for february.
As it stands right now, I would keep the same strikes for next month unless we really visit the lower 200s...
In that case I'd lower both contracts.

 

[BornToFly]

Rolled down some 260CC to 232.5 for .1 (expiring today)

 

[Knightshade]

260s dropped under $4 this morning so closed those nearer 80% than 70% profit... The 250s are still at ~$6.40 and 70% and the 245s at about $8 and 68% so letting those run... since the two tranches left are from put-to-me-at-235 shares I'm honestly fine keeping the 7-8 bucks AND letting the shares be called if we do ever get a bounce that does it before 2/16

FWIW at the bottom (so far) this morning I went and closed the -250 and -245s since they'd spiked up to low 80s% profit- so holding nothing but shares/cash now and can resell on a bounce

 

[BornToFly]

Maximum-pain is showing 230 for today....?

 

[elasalle]

Rocked so Rolled

Converted Jan 25 500 CCs to 450 CCs for like $2 extra. (Made like 67K on initial 500 CC.)
Took paper losses and closed ~100 Jan 25 250(mainly) calls and bought 87, Jan 26 300 Calls. More time, will keep selling weekly, monthly CCs against these
(+this stash is all based on $$ accumulated from selling CCs , so I think a bit differently on this )
Down like 800 Deltas, when all said and done.

now need to think what to do in my personal