ChiefRollo
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The day is still young...Smarter than I.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
no ifs. I can be wrong and we dump but I only envision 1 outcome.
Depending on how you draw this inverse HnS, the target ranges from 230-260.
Honest question: What would allow a run if there is much doubt about the vote on June 13?
Is it:
1) The vote isn’t really material, just hype.
2) Institutions engineer a fake run for exit liquidity before the vote.
3) Something else (what?)
for the stock to run $60 in such a short span of time, it has to be something nobody expects. What caused it to run from 152.3 to 299? NACS adoption decisions that we still haven't seen a dime out of? I trade the chart, not the reason.
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When we're in a monthly options expiration week and TSLA goes counter to the macro's for no reason, that's almost always the cause. Just taking a quick look at the open interest, the gameplan becomes pretty clear, to me at least....Cap TSLA mid week to prevent any meaningful breakout over 175 and hope the macro's pull back over the next 2 days.
We've seen the playbook many many, times before so not sure why you're surprised right now
So just basically waiting for some non-existent catalyst? Ugh!
(PS the fundamentals were in a much better place during the 153-299 run).
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Are you saying SPY/QQQ going drop from ATH after today going into Thursday/FridayWhen we're in a monthly options expiration and TSLA goes counter for the macro's for no reason, that's almost always the cause. Just taking a quick look at the open interest, the gameplay becomes pretty clear, to me at least....Cap TSLA mid week to prevent any meaningful breakout over 175 and hope the macro's pull back over the next 2 days.
We've seen the playbook many many, times before so not sure why you're surprised right now
I have two things I'm trying to repair at the same time. I have 50X 5/31 170CC on shares I don't want to lose. I have shares I'm trying to get back that I purchased at 240 and got called away at 160 (current cost basis from sale of Puts is 169). Maybe I should fix one at a time. Maybe I should get shares new shares at 175 and roll the 170CC to end of June 180CCs. That would uncover my long term low cost basis shares, and potentially earn another $5/share I can put toward the shares I'm trying to get back. So then I am left trying to get shares at cost basis of $174 at end of June. Of course if the SP is 240 then, I will be really in the hole for the shares I'm trying to get back.
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thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Yes, the last couple days, I was wondering if was this site, or if it was just me.
I don't necessarily agree with the notion that it has to be a "non-existent" catalyst. It could be catalyst that are known but that the market won't pay attention until the catalyst actually happens. FSD could be the gift that keeps on giving *PROVIDED Tesla keeps showing big progress. Any number or combination of these things could be a big catalyst over the next 2-3 months:So just basically waiting for some non-existent catalyst? Ugh!
(PS the fundamentals were in a much better place during the 153-299 run).
- FSD licensing partner announced
- FSD China wide release
- FSD stats/metrics/adoption rate released by Tesla
- FSD build release that triggers ChatGP moment (as in such a large leap that it blows away the notion of Robotaxi being years away)
As counterintuitive as it sounds, I much prefer trading the chart knowing full well there's currently nothing that can lift the stock, because if my conviction is still strong despite that, it means I like what I see on the chart, as opposed to being slaved to some mental gymnastics out of desperation.
True. But how likely are any of these in the next couple of weeks, June is basically upon us, then it's the "vote".
Just trying to understand where the talk of expecting anything above $200, nevermind $230+ in June (and maybe even earlier as the timeline may have got moved up) is coming from. I'd LOVE it too (!) but seems like smoke at this point while everything else is hitting ATH again and see today's red candle for TSLA.
Yeah absolutely. The current set up/dynamic with so many variables (both potential good and bad) is making me so unsure of the right play here that I'm just going to be sitting on my hands until after Q2 when clarity will be much more clear (Q2 out of the way, shareholders vote out of the way, 3 more months of FSD progress to see if rate of progress keeps steady and/or increases/decreases).
I'll likely miss out on making some side income but I don't want to get steamrolled so I'm ok missing out.
So just basically waiting for some non-existent catalyst? Ugh!
(PS the fundamentals were in a much better place during the 153-299 run).
Everything seems to be riding on FSD at the moment. Troy's projections so far seem really bad for Q2:
Maybe the only thing holding up the stock is the Elon announcement of the robot taxi unveiling? If what they show during the unveiling disappoints we are going to be hurting.
And the new $30k NIO L60 probably didn't help China sales estimates.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Personally I'm been waiting for FSD 12.4 which supposedly have "Actual Smart Summon".
If the ASS is working nicely that should pump the stock. Remote pickup and park by itself is a game changer IMO.
Everyone love some nice ASS right?
If the ASS is working nicely that should pump the stock. Remote pickup and park by itself is a game changer IMO.
Everyone love some nice ASS right?
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