Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[EVNow]

I now have -210/+215 call spreads for this week and some CC at 215.

One thing to note is we have 2 weeks before ER. This is a short week (just 2 more days left) and a full week next week. Week of 17th we should expect some SP push up just like during P&D as speculators and FOMO retail join. Of course what happens after 19th ER is anyone's guess. I think this is going to be the most difficult to forecast ER in a while because of large price cuts and unknown credits.

So, unless there is a big market meltdown - I don't expect big SP movement in the next 7 trading days.

Ofcourse any Tesla news can move the SP ....

 

[traxila]

I have played with this and noticed far out contracts (September 2023 and on) move very slowly in reaction to share price changes, have you seen differently?

They actually move very quickly at times when the price is rising. Obviously they are less volatile than the closer dated options.



We are looking at a 10% swing on the above just today, and the highs and lows on spreads may have been wider. They only print if there is a trade. I don’t think today has been volatile at all.

My experience is that it is possible to get a couple of dollars returns in a few days or sooner, rather than trying to play short dates for fifty cents at a time.

But most importantly, if the stock were to moon and I had to sell, I would be OK with that. Of course, I would have multiple opportunities to roll for credit or price.

 

[EVNow]

I have played with this and noticed far out contracts (September 2023 and on) move very slowly in reaction to share price changes, have you seen differently?

Look at the delta. You will know by what amount an option moves for every one dollar change in SP.

Delta depends on Strike, DTE, SP & IV. Far out contracts are least affected by IV changes ... (i.e. current ATM IV changes).

 

[dl003]

The spike 198 this morning looked a bit rushed to be the real DCB. It's possible we'll start bouncing soon around the 187 area to target 200. But even that would still be just a DCB. If we are rejected by 200, it'll be the time to talk about sub 180.

 

[Vova]

Since I understood from my fellow countryman, as a newcomer I need to proceed on this forum with humbleness. Second, according I need first to build up a track record.....

Let me give it a try.

I will start with a very boring trade, the butterfly.

I choose April

Buy 1 C200 at 9,30
Sell 2 C220 at 3,65
Buy 1 C240 at 1,34

This means I pay USD 334 (except transaction costs). Max profit USD 1664, max loss the invested premium.

BTW, excuse me for my bad English.

I am adding an April bear call spread. I sell an additional C220 and buy a C240. Receiving USD 184. This means that my investment and max loss is lowered to USD 150. On the other hand my risk on the upside will grow if the stock price of Tesla will exceed USD 220 before the 21th of April. But I count this risk acceptable.

Position:
1 April C200
-3 April C220
2 April C240

I am bullish on Tesla. Did not except this dip.

 

[intelligator]

• Rolled a buy-write cc 6Apr$185 to 21Apr$195 for $1.33 credit and $10 strike improvement (quite good net)
• Closed 6Apr$210 for 93% profit (cc on core shares), waiting on a bump to resell

Nice roll !!!! We are so near the expiry , I am going to wait a day before I roll 4/6 -c190 to 4/14 same strike. It's $3.68 while at 191.04 but know it will be less tomorrow. Roll to the 21st I can go to 205 for $1.78 ... an improvement of $15 but that puts the shares at risk if magically TSLA is viewed positive after ER. Ideally I have a chance to expire this week.

 

[Max Plaid]

Bear and shorties having a good time now in pre-market, based on what news...? FFS

MP shifted down to 192.50, big put wall at 190

 

[SpeedyEddy]

I don't agree on the Put wall being so big, look at the calls above, that will give some SP pressure. If today's trading levels of puts go lower and the volume on these keep being lower, I think MAX-pain can drop below 192.50 that we closed at yesterday. But there is a lot of news not being published, and rumours are forming cracks for the bears. Still think the spring is coiling op for a big move (fundamentally up if good news is being confirmed or following macro down on more bad news confirmed around banks in trouble & ER of the banks coming april 14th and beyond). So it is extremely hard to predict, plus after next week we get TSLA earnings that might have some surprises, both ways.
SPY options on the other hand has a mirroring outlook with higher and more puts, driving tesla higher possibly, although I would not totally count on that as I suggested yesterday. TSLA can have its own course today and tomorrow. Before opening I already thought 189.50 would be filled, so I bought some more shares at 189.50, hoping that is today's bottom and 183 will be left for [edit]ANOTHER[/edit] day. Might we run I will take a profit on those later today.
[edit] But at the moment it looks more like we're gonna take out 183 earlier. Which would be the time to STO some -P [/edit]

 

[Max Plaid]

Last week and jobs numbers popped the markets, today the opposite...

Thank goodness I sold those 40x -c197.50 on Tuesday to mitigate the 20x -p200's

After a softer beat on P&D we now need automotive margins to be >20%, then the Cybertruck order page to open up with decent pricing

Hope springs eternal...

 

[SpeedyEddy]

We have talked about Gaps not Bings filled and there are (at least) SEVEN below and ONE (coincidentally exactly matching my purple critical zone) above SP left in total since the january bottom. In (TA) theory they all would have to be filled, but I hope fundamentals will prevent that from happening.
I have drawn all of them

Purple critical zone is now turned into resistance FYI, if not re-entered later today

 

[juanmedina]

Has the Accountant or anyone run their number to see if we are going to beat for ER? I have $215's for next week that I might close today; really close to 50% return already. So lame.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

0DTE update (Indeed SPY and Tesla go their own way)
[SPY D and W have found equilibrium @ 407.50 for the day and the week]
[TSLA going down, Putwalls are moving south]
Conclusion: brace for possible next gap-fill and possible bounce @SP $183 (At which point I will close my calls and sell 160 puts for next week)
[Edit] STO -C195 for tomorrow (holding - 207.5 for next week)

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Has the Accountant or anyone run their number to see if we are going to beat for ER? I have $215's for next week that I might close today; really close to 50% return already. So lame.

I don't understand the question because numbers will be out no earlier 4/19 after hours. We can only offer you a crystal ball for 4/14. And that can be a buy the rumour, but nothing on facts. AND the only accountant that can tell you anything about ER ahead of times works in Tesla's service and will be killed for disclosing. But you can follow Rob Maurer next week and Brian White. They usually are very close. (Tesla Daily Podcast and My Tesla Weekend.)

 

[UltradoomY]

I don't understand the question because numbers will be out no earlier 4/19 after hours. We can only offer you a crystal ball for 4/14. And that can be a buy the rumour, but nothing on facts. AND the only accountant that can tell you anything about ER ahead of times works in Tesla's service and will be killed for disclosing. But you can follow Rob Maurer next week and Brian White. They usually are very close. (Tesla Daily Podcast and My Tesla Weekend.)

@juanmedina is referring to the TMC @The Accountant who used to be a very prolific poster - we regarded and admired for his detailed forecasts and sheets on earnings and 5 year outlook.

He did state that Q4 would be his last effort to do the predictions and asked someone else to take up the mantle - thus which no one has.

He did post for a while on The Bird App but has been absent there for a while as well.

Take a look at the near term financial milestone thread, that is where predictions are normally posted.

I placed mine there a few days ago and currently have a Non-GAAP of $1.09 in my spread sheet - which is well above the "Street" consensus of $0.85 EPS.

I am out this week of all positions (other than shares and Leaps0 but will look to open some Collars tomorrow for next week (Sell a Put / Buy a Call for a small credit) for a Monday bounce and a couple of $$ premium for the long weekend Theta.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

STO -C 185 for next week, that I will sell on filling 183 GAP
[Edit] (GAP is NOT filled yet it has to be 183.21 to be exact, as far as I know the solid part of the old candle has to be reached intraday at least. [/Edit]

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Closed all of my $TSLA -C, just to be sure. (maybe it is enough for now) Bounce incoming! How high can we try?)

 

[bingoz]

Closed all of my $TSLA -C, just to be sure. (maybe it is enough for now) Bounce incoming! How high can we try?)

The bounce is week, just the technical bounce IMO. My cc195 4/6 that I rolled from last week seems to be expired worthless. I am eyeing at 176ish level, if TSLA breaks 176, more likely we'll see make lower low (<164) very soon before heading north again. Will be more aggressive if we close the day or week below 185 - not an advice.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

It cried a last "Miao", fell, but maybe only onto a ledge halfway, bounced off the ledge.. now will it's last nails hold this surprisingly ever living cat onto the ledge (8 credits left)?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I rolled 20 x -p180 4/6 to -p177.5 4/14 for a net premium of $2.52.

 

[LBM4]

Bear and shorties having a good time now in pre-market, based on what news...? FFS

MP shifted down to 192.50, big put wall at 190

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I'd like to know that as well???!!! This sell off is getting to be ridiculous. I'm buying more shares on Friday regardless of price. Hopefully, it's bottomed out by then.