Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

It is amazing what you can get out of a bag of spare parts these days ... presumably complete with the HARMs looms

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618540494153449473

I speculated a while back that the Polish MiGs had been modified to carry NATO munitions and it may be ex-Polish MiGs that are firing the AGM-88s.

The way that story was just dropped had me suspicious that Poland had moved them under the table.

From what I've been reading it sounds like the US is planning to send over the M1A2 variant. Possibly stripped of certain features that they don't want the Russians getting an opportunity to take a good look at. It appears they want the tanks to serve a purpose more than symbolic.

The US is building a large batch of M1A2s with APUs for Poland right now. The plan was to hand them over to Poland at the end of this year or next year. The deal with Ukraine might be that Ukraine gets some of the Polish Abrams now and then they hand them back to Poland at the end of the war.

M1 Abrams Tanks In U.S. Inventory Have Armor Too Secret To Send To Ukraine

M1 tanks will be heading to Ukraine, but they can't just be pulled from U.S. stocks due to their sensitive armor.

www.thedrive.com

The Story Behind the Fraught Decision to Send All Those Tanks to Ukraine

Germany has the tanks that Ukraine really needs, but it wouldn’t send them alone.

slate.com

[...] and those [Abrams tanks] will arrive not in weeks, but in several months, and possibly not for another year.​

​

This is because the tanks will be ordered from the General Dynamics factory, which will have to build them from scratch, and will not be drawn from America’s existing stockpile, though the U.S. Army has about 4,400 Abrams tanks, many of them already in Europe.​

The Abrams are probably already under construction. The fact that these have the same specs as the Polish order under construction tells me that they are being diverted from the Polish order.

I read something recently that stated that Uranium in the Abrams armor was a major factor in using current stock. Is that correct?

I know the Australian Abrams don't have the depleted uranium armor.

Depleted uranium is not highly radioactive, though it does create some highly radioactive elements as it breaks down. Uranium is chemically extremely toxic. The areas of Iraq where depleted uranium munitions were used in 1991 still have very high rates of birth defects and cancers.

I wonder if the Ukrainian Abrams are going to be provided with American depleted uranium ammunition or more conventional AP ammunition?

 

[Bet TSLA]

Elon is responding to (amplifying) this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618534439298138113

I assume it's complete BS, like everything else he amplifies from his Nazi sympathizer pals. Anybody know?

 

[mars_or_bust]

Elon is responding to (amplifying) this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618534439298138113

I assume it's complete BS, like everything else he amplifies from his Nazi sympathizer pals. Anybody know?

yeah, its bullshit, as he admitted a few tweets later. he really should get out of the maga/sacks/tucker crowd for political guidance....

 

[wdolson]

Elon is responding to (amplifying) this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618534439298138113

I assume it's complete BS, like everything else he amplifies from his Nazi sympathizer pals. Anybody know?

He's the only one who said anything about it, so it's pretty clear it's fake news.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Elon could be a Ukrainian national hero through his Starlink assistance. Yet he has found a way to taint that perception with zero gain for anyone. Very strange.

 

[SageBrush]

yeah, its bullshit, as he admitted a few tweets later. he really should get out of the maga/sacks/tucker crowd for political guidance....

I'd like to see him annoy both sides of the political spectrum. Then I could label his shenanigans education.

 

[petit_bateau]

Ukrainian Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, said Friday that Poland will send to Kiev 60 PT-91 ["Twardy"] battle tanks* in addition to the fourteen Leopards already promised by Warsaw ..... "within a few weeks" fourteen Leopard 2 tanks will be ready to be shipped,

MSN

* These are 60 of the Polish-Westernised T72 "Twardy"

PT-91 Twardy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I think the numbers add up to about a hundred or so Western MBTs plus these 60 Twardys. Counting the numbers is a bit vague since not even the Spanish seem to be sure what condition / how many of their tanks are in / and when serviceable. Anyway bit by bit.

 

[wdolson]

Ukrainian Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, said Friday that Poland will send to Kiev 60 PT-91 ["Twardy"] battle tanks* in addition to the fourteen Leopards already promised by Warsaw ..... "within a few weeks" fourteen Leopard 2 tanks will be ready to be shipped,

MSN

* These are 60 of the Polish-Westernised T72 "Twardy"

PT-91 Twardy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I think the numbers add up to about a hundred or so Western MBTs plus these 60 Twardys. Counting the numbers is a bit vague since not even the Spanish seem to be sure what condition / how many of their tanks are in / and when serviceable. Anyway bit by bit.

Poland can afford to be generous with it's old kit. Their new arms are starting to arrive. The first SP guns and tanks from their South Korean order arrived in December
First Korean tanks and howitzers arrive in Poland

Poland is arming at an alarming rate. They are a bit too far to the right for my tastes, but aren't as crazy right as Orban. If Russia is dumb enough to trigger Article 5, Poland is going to have a large part of the land element in the response.

 

[RobStark]

Poland is arming at an alarming rate.

The secret Polish Plan to invade Germany and take over Gigafactory Berlin?

 

[nativewolf]

first they have to wrap up this invasion of Ukraine

 

[SmokyPeat]

The secret Polish Plan to invade Germany and take over Gigafactory Berlin?

Kriegblitz

 

[petit_bateau]

A fair synopsis

‘The big battle is coming’: Ukrainian forces prepare for the war’s most intense phase

Russia and Kyiv both need a breakthrough but a major offensive will be loaded with risk whoever strikes first

www.theguardian.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think the numbers add up to about a hundred or so Western MBTs plus these 60 Twardys. Counting the numbers is a bit vague since not even the Spanish seem to be sure what condition / how many of their tanks are in / and when serviceable. Anyway bit by bit.

The problem with the T-72 is the ammunitions supply for the 125mm smoothbore main gun. Much better to have NATO std 120mm rounds (and factories in multiple countries building more).

 

[petit_bateau]

The problem with the T-72 is the ammunitions supply for the 125mm smoothbore main gun. Much better to have NATO std 120mm rounds (and factories in multiple countries building more).

At least the Polish stocks ought to be helpful in that respect. I think there were 265 built so the Poles have probably kept a reasonable amount of ammo, and likely also an ammo factory.

 

[heltok]

I guess this is one of the reason the russians losses are so high:

The last part of the video the drones are just picking apart the soldiers

 

[X Fan]

Poland can afford to be generous with it's old kit. Their new arms are starting to arrive. The first SP guns and tanks from their South Korean order arrived in December
First Korean tanks and howitzers arrive in Poland

Poland is arming at an alarming rate. They are a bit too far to the right for my tastes, but aren't as crazy right as Orban. If Russia is dumb enough to trigger Article 5, Poland is going to have a large part of the land element in the response.

Given their WW2 experience and their knowledge of Russia (and Germany), I don’t blame Poland one bit for arming and looking to be self sufficient going forward. They don’t have the appearance of an acquisitive country but rather one looking to shore up defenses.

btw: I ignore the politics as governments mindsets change over the years

 

[wdolson]

At least the Polish stocks ought to be helpful in that respect. I think there were 265 built so the Poles have probably kept a reasonable amount of ammo, and likely also an ammo factory.

The stocks of 125mm ammunition have not been hit as hard as the 152mm and 122mm. There has been very little tank on tank combat so the AP rounds have not had much use. The Ukrainians were using tanks as ersatz artillery when their artillery ammunition ran low and the western guns hadn't shown up. So there may be some shortage of HE ammunition.

The Czechs are back in full production of Russian calibers. So are some other eastern European countries.

I guess this is one of the reason the russians losses are so high:

The last part of the video the drones are just picking apart the soldiers

I suspect that's in the south where the Russians are trying to mount an offensive, but it isn't going well. The Russians are having to move across a lot of open ground with no cover. Their only cover are the vehicles, which are targets for AT weapons.

I also note the Russians aren't wearing winter uniforms. They appear to be wearing summer green uniforms.

Given their WW2 experience and their knowledge of Russia (and Germany), I don’t blame Poland one bit for arming and looking to be self sufficient going forward. They don’t have the appearance of an acquisitive country but rather one looking to shore up defenses.

btw: I ignore the politics as governments mindsets change over the years

Poland was an empire of it's own at one point, and things went badly leaving them as a part of one empire after another for some time. They finally became independent after WW I only to lose it again in 1939 and was a pawn again until 1989. There is probably some collective PTSD there about other countries determining their fate.

It was Poland who forced the eastward expansion of NATO. They told NATO either let them join or their would develop their own nuclear weapons.

Poland has some scars from Germany, but they know that Germany has become a country of peaceniks. They are more afraid of Russia than anyone else.

 

[lolachampcar]

For those that have not seen this, it sure seems to hit close to home.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Then it's hi! hi! hee!
In the field artillery,
Shout out your numbers loud and strong,
For where'er you go,
You will always know
That the Caissons go rolling along.

In the storm, in the night,
Action left or action right
See those Caissons go rolling along
Limber front, limber rear,
Prepare to mount you cannoneer
And those Caissons go rolling along.

U.S. Deploys 100 New Tank Transporters to Move M1 Tanks Quickly in Europe | (8 hrs ago)

 

[petit_bateau]

Informative

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619043025078075393

I have no insight as to whether the Polish T72 > T91 "Twardy" upgrades fix these issues to any extent. Also it is notable that the rumoured Italian MBT (Ariete) that may be offered is about 10-20t lighter than Challenger/Leopard/Abrams/Leclerc. The Ariete is 54t so midway between T72 at 40t and Challenger/etc at 75-80t.