No Model III until 2019?

[Kevin Harney]

I think that all this production timeline for the gen 3 will be based on an affordable battery pack, without this they will not be able to reach the $35,000 price point. This pack will have to be developed before the design stage so IMO everything hinges on the above.

Will a 20% smaller pack get a 20% smaller car the same distances ? Why can't the design go forward without knowing what chemical will be in it ? Cant you make the battery fit the car instead of make the car fit the battery ?

 

[MassModel3]

At this point, the Tesla engineers/designers likely know exactly what footprint the car will have. They no doubt also have very exacting specs for what the new batteries will be. Possibly not, but I'd think they would know the form factor and power output by now for GF production. Put those two pieces together and they have everything they need to design the car. True, they still need to actually build the battery units, which is dependent on the GF, but I'm sure the engineers know exactly what to expect once battery production begins. And, if they're using the 188 Hp front motor from the new 85D, they also should know approximately how efficient the Model 3 will be based on aerodynamics and weight.

So like you said, all they need now is the batteries!

 

[JRP3]

...and I'm confident that a similar group is working intently on the Model 3. :biggrin:

Unlikely that production engineers are working on a car that is likely still firmly in the design studio.

 

[Canuck]

When the Model 3 does come out, if it's 2018 or 2019 I'll be digging up this thread to say: "I told you so."

But if it's out in 2017 someone else has to dig it up and then I will admit to being wrong but happy to get a Model 3 earlier than expected.

And when I do dig this up, I will add to my prediction in that I also predict that at that time there will be a Clinton (or rather two) in the White House.

 

[JRP3]

I'm not sure it takes a great amount of insight to assume the 3 will be late.

 

[MassModel3]

When the Model 3 does come out, if it's 2018 or 2019 I'll be digging up this thread to say: "I told you so."

I'm not sure it takes a great amount of insight to assume the 3 will be late.

So much negative energy...

Come on. Positive thinking!

I don't have a lot of history with Tesla's track record other than 5 or 6 months here in the forum, but I'm REALLY hoping that this time around, Tesla (and Elon) will have learned enough to not make unrealistic promises. They're still projecting 2017, and perhaps I'm just being naive, but for now I believe them.

 

[JRP3]

 

[strider]

View attachment 64535

Excellent!

 

[Dutchie]

Wasn't the Model III suppose to come out in 2015 in the old days?

 

[richkae]

Will a 20% smaller pack get a 20% smaller car the same distances ?

Yes. You just have to pick the right 20%

 

[vinnie97]

When the Model 3 does come out, if it's 2018 or 2019 I'll be digging up this thread to say: "I told you so."

But if it's out in 2017 someone else has to dig it up and then I will admit to being wrong but happy to get a Model 3 earlier than expected.

And when I do dig this up, I will add to my prediction in that I also predict that at that time there will be a Clinton (or rather two) in the White House.

Too reticent to make that last prediction now, eh? I hope to God it's not true...we've had enough monarchical dynasties in power to last the rest of my lifetime without having yet another repeat round.

 

[GenIIIBuyer]

So much negative energy...

Come on. Positive thinking!

I don't have a lot of history with Tesla's track record other than 5 or 6 months here in the forum, but I'm REALLY hoping that this time around, Tesla (and Elon) will have learned enough to not make unrealistic promises. They're still projecting 2017, and perhaps I'm just being naive, but for now I believe them.

I think it is around month 12 that you will be fully calibrated with Tesla-Time.

 

[scaesare]

Will a 20% smaller pack get a 20% smaller car the same distances ? Why can't the design go forward without knowing what chemical will be in it ? Cant you make the battery fit the car instead of make the car fit the battery ?

I'll point out that the 20% smaller vehicle in volume and mass does not necessarily mean it has to have 20% less energy capacity available.

Battery advances mean that more power will be available for a given weight/size/cost.

For example: assuming that the ~7% increase per year that Straubel & Musk have talked about has held, that means that the 85kWh pack that was built in 2012 would be ~120kWh in 2017. It's widely held that the cells in the current pack are ~3.3Ah cells. Simply replacing them with 4.1Ah cells (which exist, but unsure if the correct chemistry for Tesla's needs) today would result in a 105kWh pack.

So it's very likely that you could get MORE power out of a 20% smaller pack in 2017 as compared to the full-size pack today. Of course, in order to meet cost goals, Tesla may opt to not do that, as long as they can meet their range goals...

 

[GenIIIBuyer]

Agreed that they already "know" what they want to make from a power/drivetrain perspective. As MassModel3 mentioned, the base model will be front wheel drive with 188 Hp or 221 Hp motor. Has anyone calc'd out what KwH battery (at current densities) would be needed to get 300 miles rated range with these respective motors and and 20% less frontal drag area than Model S? I'm sure a Tesla engineer can do that calc in 5 minutes.

I think the largest challenge is just the planning and capital investment required to make 100,000+ vehicles. It will take them 2.5 years to get there with Model S, think it's realistic that it will take almost one year to ramp to 100K/year run rate for the Model 3.

 

[Kevin Harney]

Agreed that they already "know" what they want to make from a power/drivetrain perspective. As MassModel3 mentioned, the base model will be front wheel drive with 188 Hp or 221 Hp motor. Has anyone calc'd out what KwH battery (at current densities) would be needed to get 300 miles rated range with these respective motors and and 20% less frontal drag area than Model S? I'm sure a Tesla engineer can do that calc in 5 minutes.

I think the largest challenge is just the planning and capital investment required to make 100,000+ vehicles. It will take them 2.5 years to get there with Model S, think it's realistic that it will take almost one year to ramp to 100K/year run rate for the Model 3.

I do not believe it will be FWD. It will be RWD and an optional AWD. For performance reasons.

 

[JRP3]

Agree, RWD with AWD option.

 

[Red Sage]

The Tesla Model ☰ will reach its first buyers by July 2017. It will be offered as a RWD version with no less than 60 kWh battery pack and a greater than 200 mile range for $34,900. It will be offered as an AWD version with at least an 85 kWh battery pack for perhaps $42,900.

 

[dsm363]

The Tesla Model ☰ will reach its first buyers by July 2017. It will be offered as a RWD version with no less than 60 kWh battery pack and a greater than 200 mile range for $34,900. It will be offered as an AWD version with at least an 85 kWh battery pack for perhaps $42,900.

How do you know this? Did you get some information that they have changed the name from Model 3 to Model 'sideways three symbol' too?

 

[JRP3]

While I would hope RS is right I'm betting the base model will be a bit over $35K and will have around a 50kWh pack and will get 200 miles of range the same way the S gets 300 miles of range.

 

[bluenation]

as i said in the other thread:

tesla has made/is in process of making three cars. of those, three of them suffered multi-year of delays. 0 tesla cars suffered no delay. I understand the reasoning that m3 wont bring any new tech to the table, thus "eliminating" delays. Im not so convinced that's the case. Actions speak louder than words.

ill be buying the m3. In fact, i want it now, and ill be the happiest dude if it comes earlier than i thought. But this will be their first mass production vehicle. The first vehicle where, their excellent customer service will finally be put to the strain, their lack of dealers put to the true test, and their superchargers will be put to max (overload?) capacity. The first vehicle where, quality is not the only thing that matters; suddenly quantity matters, too. Any major drivetrain issue will thus wound them. THat's where the delays for extra prep and testing come in.

point being, "lack of new tech" is not the only source for delays.

My 2018 mass production timeline stands.

oh and btw, it's not techinically true they have 'no new tech', the battery will be of higher energy density than the ones Tesla has been so used to with the S and X.