No Model III until 2019?

[bluenation]

OTOH Elon has always been too optimistic and they havent yet decided what kind of car they will make. Usually it takes three years to make a new car model. Because of that I say not before 2018.

agreed

The Supercharger network is going to be fully built out before release. If they release in 2017 then some early Model 3 adopters will be able to use the federal tax credit in 2017 (and probably 2018).

you are implying the SPC will stop its tremendous growth around the 3's arrival. that would be a terrible move by tesla.

I have high hopes they'll pull it off. Elon said they were very conscious of the Model X delays and didn't want this to happen again. They have a lot riding on the Gigafactory and design time scale and any delays would be poorly reflected on them so they seem to be scaling back on his prior comments of a radical design direction for Model 3 and going to convervative for the initial model in order to meet their later 2017 time frame and allow for more adventuresome designs for later Model 3 platform variants.

i wouldn't put so much trust in a CEO's words. actions speak louder than words, of course.

anyways, the next couple years will be a fun ride, even for non tesla owners. stay tuned, etc.

 

[RobStark]

Originally Posted by Matias
OTOH Elon has always been too optimistic and they havent yet decided what kind of car they will make. Usually it takes three years to make a new car model. Because of that I say not before 2018.


Every accomplishment by Tesla has been accompanied by a chorus of naysayers that said Tesla/Elon was too optimistic.

In 2007 a chorus of naysayers said Tesla would never deliver the Roadster.

In 2012 when Elon said he estimated Model S global demand at 20k units per year a chorus of naysayers said he was laughably over optimistic.

Tesla just delivered over 31k units last year.

For the last 12 months we have heard that a release date of Q3 2015 for Model X was too optimistic.

A chorus of naysayers said Tesla should scrap the falcon wing doors.

And yet the prototypes/betas are out there being tested and Tesla is on schedule for a Q3 release date.

The Gigafactory is ahead of schedule and is on pace to producing battery cells 2nd half of 2016.

We had a chorus of naysayers saying not before 2018 or 2019.

Tesla now has over 10k employees.

A lot more accumulated institutional knowledge.

They still set what many consider to be outrageous goals but when they fail to meet those goals their level of accomplishment is still rather darn impressive in the grand scope of the automotive industry.

 

[aronth5]

RobStark
Agree. Always a good idea to take a step back and look at things from a different perspective which you've done. Thanks.

 

[tga]

OTOH Elon has always been too optimistic and they havent yet decided what kind of car they will make. Usually it takes three years to make a new car model. Because of that I say not before 2018.

Well, it takes a legacy automaker 3 years for a new model. As RobStark points out, Tesla operates differently. I wouldn't necessarily assume what holds for the rest of the industry holds for them. I can speak with experience that startups are much faster at bringing products to market than their legacy competitors. The question is, with 10,000 employees, at what point does Tesla stop operating in startup mode (IMHO, at some point, they will/have to).

Without falcon doors, rearview cameras (and their associated legal hassles), towing capacity, etc., there's not much new tech to the Model 3.

Elon reiterates 2nd half 2017 for Model 3 introduction at earnings call.

"Introduction" != "First customer shipments". I didn't listen to the call - did he say introduction in H217? Volume shipments could still be a ways past that.

 

[Model 3]

"Introduction" != "First customer shipments". I didn't listen to the call - did he say introduction in H217? Volume shipments could still be a ways past that.

This is what was said:

Elon Musk - Chairman, Product Architect and Chief Executive Officer

[...]

Now with respect to Model 3, we definitely don’t want the delays that affected the X to affect the Model 3, and we’re really – we are being quite contentious about this, and I mean there are things that we could do with the Model 3 platform that are really adventurous but with the schedule risk. So what we’re going to do is we’re going to have something that is going to be an amazing car, but it won’t be the most adventurous version of the Model 3 to begin with, but we will then have the more sort of different version of the Model 3 on the Model 3 platform following the initial version, so that we can stay on track for Model 3.

We got a quite adventurous with the X, and we don’t want - we don’t want to be – that would be too risky given the Gigafactory and everything sort of has to happen on time. We’re not going to go super crazy with the design of the initial version of the 3. So, I do feel confident that we can make that happen in the second half of 2017.

 

[JohnQ]

Originally Posted by Matias
OTOH Elon has always been too optimistic and they havent yet decided what kind of car they will make. Usually it takes three years to make a new car model. Because of that I say not before 2018.


Every accomplishment by Tesla has been accompanied by a chorus of naysayers that said Tesla/Elon was too optimistic.

In 2007 a chorus of naysayers said Tesla would never deliver the Roadster.

In 2012 when Elon said he estimated Model S global demand at 20k units per year a chorus of naysayers said he was laughably over optimistic.

Tesla just delivered over 31k units last year.

For the last 12 months we have heard that a release date of Q3 2015 for Model X was too optimistic.

A chorus of naysayers said Tesla should scrap the falcon wing doors.

And yet the prototypes/betas are out there being tested and Tesla is on schedule for a Q3 release date.

The Gigafactory is ahead of schedule and is on pace to producing battery cells 2nd half of 2016.

We had a chorus of naysayers saying not before 2018 or 2019.

Tesla now has over 10k employees.

A lot more accumulated institutional knowledge.

They still set what many consider to be outrageous goals but when they fail to meet those goals their level of accomplishment is still rather darn impressive in the grand scope of the automotive industry.

You're saying that Tesla delivers ... eventually. Which I completely agree with. But there were a lot of missed deadlines (publicly stated by Elon) along the way. Why should we expect anything different moving forward? I'm impressed with what they have done and applaud their ambitions. Tesla will get there (Model X, Model 3, future designs) but I don't trust any timeline that's more than a year out. Too much history.

 

[Pollux]

@RobStark,

Agree with you that Tesla delivers things that others haven't believed possible. Do NOT agree with your observations about schedule. Tesla has changed dates before on Model X and pretty much everything else. And as much as I like that the Gigafactory appears to be on or ahead of schedule, that counts for nothing until batteries are actually produced and used in production vehicles. For all of your "on schedule" observations, I say, those count for little or nothing. Actual deliveries are what need to be judged.

Tesla rightly deserves enormous praise for doing the amazing things that they say they will do; but has no track record worthy of praise for doing those things WHEN they say they will.

Alan

Originally Posted by Matias
OTOH Elon has always been too optimistic and they havent yet decided what kind of car they will make. Usually it takes three years to make a new car model. Because of that I say not before 2018.


Every accomplishment by Tesla has been accompanied by a chorus of naysayers that said Tesla/Elon was too optimistic.

In 2007 a chorus of naysayers said Tesla would never deliver the Roadster.

In 2012 when Elon said he estimated Model S global demand at 20k units per year a chorus of naysayers said he was laughably over optimistic.

Tesla just delivered over 31k units last year.

For the last 12 months we have heard that a release date of Q3 2015 for Model X was too optimistic.

A chorus of naysayers said Tesla should scrap the falcon wing doors.

And yet the prototypes/betas are out there being tested and Tesla is on schedule for a Q3 release date.

The Gigafactory is ahead of schedule and is on pace to producing battery cells 2nd half of 2016.

We had a chorus of naysayers saying not before 2018 or 2019.

Tesla now has over 10k employees.

A lot more accumulated institutional knowledge.

They still set what many consider to be outrageous goals but when they fail to meet those goals their level of accomplishment is still rather darn impressive in the grand scope of the automotive industry.

 

[bluenation]

Pollux said it better than i could ^.

and btw, the overuse of the silly word "naysayers" is right up there with "FUDsters" as the most emotionally defensive, thin-skinned reaction to what many times is legitimate criticism of real weaknesses of this CEO/company, or real, reasonable skepticism. and the timeline of this company shows that the skepticism re; timing is well founded.

at the same time, im glad elon has finally admitted what i and many others were warning: either go with fancy toys (falcon doors) or go with timeliness. You can't have both.

Elon has -finally- chosen the latter, with the 3.

 

[JRP3]

Saying the X will be late because of falcon wing doors is different than saying the company is in trouble because the X will be late. FUDsters take legitimate criticisms and blow them far out of proportion. Of course the X didn't need falcon wing doors, and of course the added complexity added to the delay. However, did the delay actually hurt the company, or will the falcon wing doors help spur sales in the future? Too soon to say at this point, but some have speculated that the doors may be a big hit in China.

 

[tdelta1000]

I agree with @RobStark: Tesla now has an experienced team in place that has designed and put into volume production an award-winning "built from the ground up" EV and is a far larger company than it was just two years ago. The Model 3 will be based on the proven technology already in use in the S/X. Tesla doesn't have to invent anything new for the 3, it just needs a cheaper battery pack and a much larger scale assembly line. My bet is that the Model 3 will go into production in 2017. The long term success of the company depends on the Model 3 being a success, and the sooner the better.

I agree... E. Musk said that the "3" concept designs will be released next year 2016 because this is the year of the "X".

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I wouldn't take delays on Model X to mean that Model 3 delays are likely.

Tesla was in no hurry at all to meet any deadlines with Model X, because the vehicle was never necessary to the "Secret Plan" published on Tesla's blog in 2006. Remember that the original plan was to build an expensive sports car (Roadster) use the earnings to finance a more affordable car (Model S), and use the profit from that car to finance a mass market car (Model 3). The X is a "Step 2.5" car. I believe the Tesla team decided to go ahead with the X because having an SUV in the product lineup was good for Tesla's status as a luxury brand, and because margins are typically higher on SUVs than sedans.

With Model 3, there's less complication in the vehicle (no crazy doors or need for towing), and the powertrain and control systems already exist. I think the challenge with Model 3 is not so much the physical design of the car, but scaling up production to 10 times the rate of Model S. I think Tesla can deliver at least by 2018. The question is how MANY cars they can deliver!

 

[green1]

When Tesla starts meeting their timelines on anything else, we can start predicting it going forward, but they consistently miss on even the smallest projects, so I see no reason to expect the 3 to be any different.

Anyone saying it will not be delayed seems to be using wishful thinking rather than any evidence of Tesla's capabilities.

I think the 3 will be amazing. I also bet it won't be on time.

 

[dhanson865]

When Tesla starts meeting their timelines on anything else, we can start predicting it going forward, but they consistently miss on even the smallest projects, so I see no reason to expect the 3 to be any different.

Anyone saying it will not be delayed seems to be using wishful thinking rather than any evidence of Tesla's capabilities.

I think the 3 will be amazing. I also bet it won't be on time.

and what is on time?

My current mental adjustment is some deliveries end of 2017, bigger volume in 2018, multiple factories producing in 2019.

See Elon Musk: . Which is most likely to occur? for rough guesses.

 

[stopcrazypp]

The different this time is that they have a $5 billion battery factory that seems to be moving ahead of schedule. Letting it sit idle does not seem like a good idea, which may be why Elon has mentioned he is willing to be less "adventurous" to get the Model 3 out on time.

 

[MassModel3]

The different this time is that they have a $5 billion battery factory that seems to be moving ahead of schedule. Letting it sit idle does not seem like a good idea, which may be why Elon has mentioned he is willing to be less "adventurous" to get the Model 3 out on time.

I think you nailed it.

There is going to be an upcoming announcement on the future of home storage, which will take some of the GF production, but that, too, will require a ramp up of sales to fully utilize production. There will be excess production at the GF if it's ahead of schedule and there's no Model 3 to receive the GF product. I fully expect the Model 3 to be in its final stages of test and pre-production or early stages of sales when the GF comes online late next year.

 

[cellogig]

This thread is worthy to be at the top of the discussion currently. Very interesting....

 

[T34ME]

This thread is worthy to be at the top of the discussion currently. Very interesting....

I think it is funny how all the FUDsters in this thread have been proven wrong.........and most of them are long gone from TMC. Tesla lasted longer than they did!