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I think all basic EVs going foward need at least 150. That covers every type of need and that way they dont have to make different versions. People who drive 20 miles to work? Great. Works for them. People who live in Texas, like I do, and drive 60 miles round trip, great works for me. That way no one is knocking it for its range.
 
Problem here is that the Leaf was introduced as having a 100 mile range and many Leaf drivers apparently can't get over 50 miles if conditions aren't perfect.
Yes, Nissan's marketing about the Leaf being a "100 mile" car is very annoying. In fact, some dealers and reps still claim such figures or even more (My Nissan Leaf Forum View topic - Shaming of dealers, reps, etc. saying Leaf's range is 100 mi). Nobody at My Nissan Leaf Forum View topic - Poll: '12 Leaf range Nissan reps should tell people? believes "100 miles" is the right value to tell potential Leaf buyers, which most likely have never owned an EV before.

As for "many Leaf drivers apparently can't get over 50 miles if conditions aren't perfect.", that's a bunch of bull. I've had my Leaf 2 months now and will say that 50 miles is easily doable, esp. if it's city driving. If you're driving 80+ mph (far above the legal speed limit on most highways here, where the limit is typically 65 mph) the entire way, then 50 miles can be a problem. TonyWilliams has a range chart at My Nissan Leaf Forum View topic - Range Chart.

Cold weather esp. where the power hungry heater on the '11 and '12 Leafs can cut range significantly.
A 200 mile range means you will always have a 100 mile range. If you have a 51 mile round trip commute, like I do, then a problem with charging, or a power outage will cause you not to get through the second day--and power outages aren't that uncommon with the deregulation of the utility companies and the outsourcing of the electrical infrastructure servicing. I just don't buy that most people will accept a 100 mile range car.
Power outages aren't common where I live and work. There weren't common in the Seattle area, where I'd lived for over 9 years, nor in Los Angeles (where I'd attended college for ~4.5 years).
 
I am not sure the Leaf needs 200 miles but 100 miles seems to be a magic number for the people I talk to. RARELY will a person go over 100 miles around town, but they think they often do. I think it is just psychological to get in the triple digits.


I think it is more then just triple digits. Everyone talks about the average day they only drive xx miles but a lot of people do not buy their vehicle for the average day. My typical work day I drive 50 miles between work and errands and I think a Leaf could very well fit with that schedule. However, just this week alone there were 2 days where i drove 150 miles which obviously exceeds a leaf's range (and there is no real L2 charging infrastructure in this state). With an 80 mile range, I cant go visit my parents (140 mile round trip), cant drive to my favorite lake (Mille Lacs 90 miles to Isle, 115 miles to north side of lake), hell a round trip to the airport of MoA will max out the range. During my discussions with people their first thoughts are to what they cant do with the range of an electric vehicle.


Now although it may sound like it, I am not advocating for a 500+ mile range BEV. But at 80 miles I am very reliant on an infrastructure that is completely non existent in this state and even if it did exist requires 4 hours to recharge. With Level 3 50kw charging (which the closest is 450 miles away) means that I would have to stop every hour to charge for 20 minutes (if its open). At a range of say 150-200 miles, I essentially reduce my reliance on any charging infrastructure for 98 percent of my use cases. Suddenly stopping at a level 3 charger is only a rare occurrence on longer trips that can easily be planned out.
 
I think it is more then just triple digits. Everyone talks about the average day they only drive xx miles but a lot of people do not buy their vehicle for the average day. My typical work day I drive 50 miles between work and errands and I think a Leaf could very well fit with that schedule. However, just this week alone there were 2 days where i drove 150 miles which obviously exceeds a leaf's range (and there is no real L2 charging infrastructure in this state). With an 80 mile range, I cant go visit my parents (140 mile round trip), cant drive to my favorite lake (Mille Lacs 90 miles to Isle, 115 miles to north side of lake), hell a round trip to the airport of MoA will max out the range. During my discussions with people their first thoughts are to what they cant do with the range of an electric vehicle.
This is why for many folks, even though an EV w/the Leaf's range (or similar to it) can be a primary vehicle, there is an ICEV to fallback to, in those occasional cases.

As I posted at Edmunds Long-term Prius c story | Page 2 | PriusChat (w/a few edits)

Per http://nhts.ornl.gov/2009/pub/stt.pdf (from NHTS Publications NHTS Publications) on page 54, the average commute speed in a private vehicle in 09 was 28.87 mph. Also for private vehicles, the average commute travel trip length was 12.09 miles and average commute travel time was 22.85 minutes.

From page 38 of the above PDF (Figure 6. Average Time Spent In Vehicles and Miles Traveled 2001 and 2009 NHTS). In 2009 miles, the # of miles traveled is ~30-40 while the time spent is ~60-65 minutes.

Page 16 for 2009 says average vehicle trip length (miles) is 9.72 miles.
Office of Highway Policy Information (OHPI) Highway Finance Data Collection

Sixty-three percent of daily vehicle trips are between one and nine miles in length, according to the 2009 NHTS. The responses indicate that 16 percent of all daily vehicle trips are between 10 and 19 miles in length, while 9 percent are between 20 and 49 miles. Trips less than one mile in length are 10 percent of all trips, while long-distance travel (trips of 50 miles or greater) are three percent of all trips.

A majority of all VMT are from trips 20 miles in length or greater. Trips between 20 and 49 miles in length are 26 percent of VMT; trips 50 miles in length or greater account for 31 percent of VMT. Trips less than 20 miles in length account for 43 percent of VMT.

These findings indicate that most personal vehicle trips are short, with seven of every 10 trips less than 10 miles in length. However, trips less than 10 miles in length account for only 23 percent of all VMT, indicating that frequent, shorter trips are prevalent, but those trips greater than 10 miles in length account for a majority of road use.

Conversely, long-distance travel (trips of 50 miles or greater) account for three percent of all vehicle trips by number, but represent 31 percent of all household-based VMT.
In looking at my personal stats, I leased my Leaf about 2 months ago. I'm at 2106 miles. I filled up my other car (a Prius) a day or two before I got the Leaf and was at 74249 miles on 7/27/13. Now the Prius is at 74740 miles, so it's gone 491 miles in that 2 months. I've only fueld it once more more on 9/10/13.

Most of my driving of the Prius was partly to prevent the tires from getting flat spots and to keep the mileage down on my leased Leaf. There was an >70 mile round trip to get to the dealer to pickup the Leaf. I should've gone for 15K miles/year on my lease. If I'd done that, the Prius would've moved even less.
 
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I agree with the point that 100 miles in most situation (so slightly above that in EPA numbers) is what most people want (this includes me). It would make an EV work for even the slightly longer semi-regular trips (I do SF to Sacramento, which in a Leaf would mean stopping along the way to use unreliable public chargers).

But it's obvious to me why no large automaker is offering such a car, but instead are offering cars that give slightly above 100 miles on the LA4 city cycle (this includes the Leaf). It's definitely not a coincident. It's because the ZEV mandate is broken down using the city cycle and 100 miles is right at the point where a car is considered Type 2 and gets 3 credits. The next step up is 200 miles and that's not worth it to pursue esp. for compliance vehicles. Only Tesla and Tesla based EVs (like the RAV4) fall in the higher category, because Tesla has no need for compliance (they are just trying to build the best EV out there).
 
I think an EPA 120 mile range is probably a reasonable minimum which would allow most people to get 100 miles in most situations and give them enough confidence to greatly reduce if not eliminate range anxiety.
For my uses, if it were an EV to own (and not lease), I'd say 150 miles EPA rated would be a good reasonable min for the US.

It would give me enough buffer to possibly work pretty far away, yet still be able to drive fairly fast (if needed) and have enough buffer for heater use, cold temps battery degradation over the years.

On the other hand, there's an EV weirdo on Tivocommunity (who hasn't put his money where his mouth is either and has been posting all sorts of misinformation on carbon/energy "breakeven on EVs" and pointing to unreliable/debunked sources), believes EVs only need to have a 50 mile range... :rolleyes: Since he has no EV/PHEV, I guess he doesn't realize the above factors.
As he posted
Basicly the Tesla "S" is a mismatch for the real need. 200-250 miles range is not needed, 50 miles is more appropriate, and saves both battery weight and vehicle weight, and energy.

The i-Miev rated at 62-mile of EPA range has sold VERY poorly (August 2013 Dashboard - HybridCars.com) in the US.
 
Now although it may sound like it, I am not advocating for a 500+ mile range BEV. But at 80 miles I am very reliant on an infrastructure that is completely non existent in this state and even if it did exist requires 4 hours to recharge. With Level 3 50kw charging (which the closest is 450 miles away) means that I would have to stop every hour to charge for 20 minutes (if its open). At a range of say 150-200 miles, I essentially reduce my reliance on any charging infrastructure for 98 percent of my use cases. Suddenly stopping at a level 3 charger is only a rare occurrence on longer trips that can easily be planned out.

It's worse than that:
- lower range means you'd need a denser network.
- (Without significant C-rate advances) lower range from lower capacity means a higher charge:drive ratio, leading to more contention, multiplying the needed chargers.

But, since PEV significantly decreases the miles of fuel that "fuel stations" need to provide, it's hard to make an L3 charger make money unless you get heavy use, and especially at lower mph that risks contention.

Now consider Tesla. To use their network:
- Minimum 60kWh battery (currently allowing up to 91kW charging, larger capacity charges at up to 120kW).
- Large single fee, paid in advance (helps pay for the charging network in advance, effectively by overcharging many drivers ;))
- Free at the point of use (simplifies the charger, eliminate transaction overhead, avoid utility laws.

To me it's pretty simple.
- mid-range BEVs aren't going to be road-trip vehicles, and if a manufacturer really wants to sell a lot of them they need to offer a simple rental system (with none of the crap you expect to deal with at a typical rental company).
- if battery costs continue to fall, mid-range BEVs will end up as "budget" vehicles. Nissan might think that's OK, because that's their market anyway, but I think they need to watch out because the EV equation is "capacity = range = charging speed = power = battery cost", and by breaking the usual ICEV performance v efficiency trade-off upgrades would become more compelling.
 
As for "many Leaf drivers apparently can't get over 50 miles if conditions aren't perfect.", that's a bunch of bull. I've had my Leaf 2 months now and will say that 50 miles is easily doable, esp. if it's city driving. If you're driving 80+ mph (far above the legal speed limit on most highways here, where the limit is typically 65 mph) the entire way, then 50 miles can be a problem.
Perhaps on a relatively new LEAF, 50 miles is easy. However, on a 2.5 year old LEAF I have lost the 12th capacity bar which puts me down around 15% capacity loss.

The first 6 months I could drive 50 miles at 65 mph on the freeway on a 80% charge and get home around the first low battery warning.

Today on a 100% charge I only get about 55 miles driving 65 mph on the freeway before LBW.

Very few people drive 65 mph - if I drove in the middle lanes at a typical ~70 with the flow of traffic, 50 miles would be about the limit.

Now if Nissan can get the "hot" battery out with 30-40% more capacity, a decent QC network that can be counted on when needed, they will have a car which is much more usable for the average person for the life of the vehicle.
 
...To me it's pretty simple.
- mid-range BEVs aren't going to be road-trip vehicles, and if a manufacturer really wants to sell a lot of them they need to offer a simple rental system (with none of the crap you expect to deal with at a typical rental company).
- if battery costs continue to fall, mid-range BEVs will end up as "budget" vehicles. Nissan might think that's OK, because that's their market anyway, but I think they need to watch out because the EV equation is "capacity = range = charging speed = power = battery cost", and by breaking the usual ICEV performance v efficiency trade-off upgrades would become more compelling.
Sorry, what does that last bit (upgrades would become more compelling) mean?

Switching gears slightly; the Tesla powered, Rav4EV is a perfect case for the true 100 mi EV; in a popular form factor (CUV); but it sells poorly. What is it doing wrong? Is it the exception to the rule that we just need a bit more range to reach the tipping point?
 
^^^
Those two factors don't help, but it's also not well advertised, so many don't know about it. Its sticker price was WAY too high, esp. when people could compare its price to the ICE versions.

The incentives that Toyota was slapping on purchases helped (~$9K to $10K) but they didn't do it for leases. And, Toyota previously didn't pass on the $7500 Federal tax credit savings to those who leased (in the form of a lower total lease cost). Now, IIRC, they've changed and now made the leases a lot more attractive.

Now, it's based on an outdated generation of RAV 4, but it wasn't selling before it became outdated.

Not everyone wants a small SUV/RAV 4 when they want an EV.

I'd considered it but leasing it was way too much vs. a Leaf and it was WAY more range than I needed for my commute. I'd thought of leasing and ditching my Prius, but the numerous reliability probs (unusual for a Toyota) I'd seen on Toyota Rav4 EV Forum - Toyota Rav4 EV Forum for the Rav4 Electric Vehicle (mostly the fault of Tesla bits) made me shy away from it. And, yes, no CHAdeMO port is lame.

Then again, w/my Leaf, I feel like I wasted $ by even bothering w/CHAdeMO. My CHAdeMO port was used a whopping 1 time by me so far and it wasn't a great experience :/ (post at My Nissan Leaf Forum View topic - Nissan To Install 500 More Quick Charge Stations).

- - - Updated - - -

Perhaps on a relatively new LEAF, 50 miles is easy. However, on a 2.5 year old LEAF I have lost the 12th capacity bar which puts me down around 15% capacity loss.

The first 6 months I could drive 50 miles at 65 mph on the freeway on a 80% charge and get home around the first low battery warning.

Today on a 100% charge I only get about 55 miles driving 65 mph on the freeway before LBW.

Very few people drive 65 mph - if I drove in the middle lanes at a typical ~70 with the flow of traffic, 50 miles would be about the limit.
Ok, fair enough, but by my assertion that the statement "many Leaf drivers apparently can't get over 50 miles if conditions aren't perfect" is bogus.

I know what you mean about 65 mph, esp. in the Los Angeles area (not where you're at though) but also here in the Bay Area. I've gone 65 mph or lower on the highway up here in order to go a bit further and almost everyone is going by.

Up in WA state though, in the Seattle area, where the speed limits are only 60 mph on many highways, you'll have people going below the 60 mph in clear, daytime dry weather in the fast lane for no apparent reason. And, they won't move over... Doing 70 mph in a 60 mph up there makes you stand out.

On my '13 Leaf, LBW sounds when the % SoC indicator hits ~17-18%. VLBW comes on at ~7-8%. I haven't had a "date" w/the turtle yet.

Heck, I sometimes go to work (~12 miles, one way; only ~2.5 to 5.5 miles of highway, depending on the route) in my Leaf w/a fairly low SoC %, knowing LBW will likely sound but it's ok. I have free L2 charging at work and the car's able to draw ~5.8 or 5.9 kW (from the displays on the Chargepoint EVSEs).
 
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Sorry, what does that last bit (upgrades would become more compelling) mean?

Switching gears slightly; the Tesla powered, Rav4EV is a perfect case for the true 100 mi EV; in a popular form factor (CUV); but it sells poorly. What is it doing wrong? Is it the exception to the rule that we just need a bit more range to reach the tipping point?
The reason I'm not considering it (even though I want a true 100 mile EV) is that it's an SUV and comes with the efficiency compromises of such a vehicle. And as a low volume vehicle the price tag is quite high (esp. given the amenities/interior etc wasn't really upgraded and that it's built on a completely outdated platform).

But as others have said, Toyota isn't doing anywhere near the same incentives other automakers are doing and isn't really pushing it that strongly. They don't really need to in order to meet their quota and sell their planned production. And like most EVs (Leaf excepted in certain markets) the dealers aren't pushing it.
 
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But as others have said, Toyota isn't doing anywhere near the same incentives other automakers are doing and isn't really pushing it that strongly. They don't really need to in order to meet their quota and sell their planned production.
Ummm... they were offering $9300 incentives for purchasing in Nor Cal and $10K for So Cal earlier coupled WITH 0% APR financing. Off the top of my head, I don't know of any (still in business) EV makers offering anything that strong. At least that coupled w/the $7500 Federal tax credit and $2500 CVRP got them finally moving.

Back to jerry33's bogus assertions re: "many Leaf drivers apparently can't get over 50 miles if conditions aren't perfect", please see My Nissan Leaf Forum NEW 300 km Club !!!!. Those values (100 miles and up) are possible but only while going quite slow and/or w/hypermiling. Driving It To The Bitter End - 2011 Nissan Leaf Long-Term Road Test achieved 132.0 miles at 35 mph.

Tony Williams also has run 62 mph range tests at My Nissan Leaf Forum 81 miles and My Nissan Leaf Forum View topic - 2012 / 2013 LEAF Range Test San Diego Mar 8, 2013.
 
Plus an SUV without AWD further limits it's market.

I have long said, if Toyota swapped out the resistance heater with a heat pump to make the car more viable in colder climates, lowered the MSRP to somewhere close to what they actually sell it for, and made it available nation wide, the RAV4EV would be the best selling plug-in on the road. I know I would be driving one instead of a Volt if it was available in the Cincinnati area.