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Model S/X as a taxi or fleet vehicle
- Thread starter Steph
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rolosrevenge
Dr. EVS
New York City tried to do this, but the US Supreme Court overturned the law as an interference with the power of the federal government under the Clean Air Act.
From the article:
"We change the brakes on a Toyota Corolla every seven to eight weeks, but on a Prius we change the brakes every 18 months or so," Sahota said.
Eighteen months in a cab's life is about every 250,000 kilometres. For regular drivers that's a brake job every ten years or so.
250 000 km in 18 months! Wow! This means 160 000/years. About $25000/year in gas alone. A model S in this case is not free, it actually prints money!
Anyone knows how many kilometers model S will do with a set of break pads?
Steph is right. The car would essentially be free if you leased it or even financed it(monthly fixed cost). Having said that, there is no way that this would happen very quickly, if ever with the model S. Most people HATE change, and are horrible at crunching numbers.
I have had the opposite experience. Most just hear the initial price and dismiss the idea.
When radial tires were first installed on school buses--because the school board(s) saw the monetary savings--the drivers hated them. They said they "wandered" all over the road. What actually happened is that the drivers were used to correcting for the bias-ply tires that really did wander all over the road, so the better a bias-ply driver you were the worse the radial tires seemed. The trick to acceptance was to ride with the driver and have him steer with one finger. Once they couldn't move the wheel back and forth in response to road irregularities, the bus went straight.
My expectation is that it will be the taxi companies which start the ball rolling rather than the individual taxi drivers, just like the school boards started using radial tires on buses. They will come after they see the benefits.
NuclearPowered
Member
Steph I didn't agree with your stock analysis, but the taxi argument is better although I think it will be much slower then you say.
Does anyone remember how long it took to see a significant number of Prius taxis? It seems around here that it was 2006-7ish.
Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk 2
Does anyone remember how long it took to see a significant number of Prius taxis? It seems around here that it was 2006-7ish.
Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk 2
You are right, timing is the unknown, no one has a crystal ball. But we can have fun predicting how soon it will be!
What the hell is an Droid Bionic? Sound pretty cool, does it make coffee?
FalconNinetyD
Active Member
Do the local municipalities dictate cost per mile of taxis? I an see where a taxi company could charge more for a ride in a Model S 9ver a nasty Crown Vic.
How about a Model S town car?
How about a Model S town car?
No. You argued that it costs less than a gas car. "Free" means that it costs zero money. Cost of the car (or lease) plus cost of maintenance, plus cost of electricity does NOT equal zero money. You are the one using rhetoric to misstate the situation.
And you state that you're basing your analysis on leasing the Model S. Where did you find the cost of the lease? I did a quick Google search and I don't see a lease price. I see where they've found a leasing company, but I don't see a price. And leases are based on mileage. A three-year lease based on driving 150,000 miles in those three years is going to cost one hell of a lot more than a lease based on the "normal" 45,000 miles in that same period.
Then there's the fact that you are assuming 300 km per day for 300 days per year for 5 years. That's 450,000 km. (280,000 miles) Some cars will achieve that, but many will not. Your cost analysis is flawed. You've "proved" nothing.
Cost of maintenance for my Prius: Less than $40 per year. Cost of maintenance for my Roadster: $600 per year for the annual service plus $580 for ranger mileage. (I could substitute two days out of my life and two nights hotel in Seattle for the $580 mileage, but I choose not to.)
Zap Xebra SD: Three-wheel electric car, top speed on level ground 35 mph, range with aftermarket battery pack 40 miles. Purchased about a year before the Roadster went into production. Maintenance essentially zero (except that the original battery pack began to fail after 6 months and had to be replaced). Sold five years after purchase for a bit less than 20% of what it cost me.
The Prius costs about half of a stripped-down Model S and about 1/3 as much as a fully-loaded Model S. And it's a brand that is very well-known, and very reliable. Initial capital cost is a very important consideration for most people. Given the choice between spending $25,000 or $50,000 most people will spend $25,000 because that leaves them with $25,000 to spend on something else, and ongoing operating cost can come from their income stream. Opportunity costs matter.
Not in the U.S. they don't. Here, people buy stuff they don't need with money they don't have, and pay high interest rates, increasing their cost of living considerably. They consistently vote against their own economic interests because they listen to political ads, and they buy products based on advertising, not economics. If what you say were true, most every roof in the nation would have solar panels on it, because in much of the country they are (by your definition) "free." (That is, over the course of a few years, they provide cheaper electricity than the grid, which by your definition makes them free.)
Listen, I'm not saying that the Model S would be a bad taxi. I'm not even saying that it wouldn't be more economical than a Crown Victoria or the new Nissan NY taxi cabs. What I'm saying is that "more economical" is not "free," and that people will adopt them slowly because of mistrust of new technology and reluctance to accept new paradigms. I argued with a guy who would not buy a less-than-400-mile EV because his daughter was in college 300 miles away and if she ever had an emergency on a day when his wife was at work in her gas car, he would be unable to jump in his car immediately and make the drive. An event that would probably never happen, and even if it did, his getting there quickly would do the daughter no good, was a powerful argument for him.
People will not buy EVs in large numbers until they've gotten used to the idea of them, regardless of practical or economic considerations. It will happen, and some day most of the cars on the road will be electric, but it will be a slow transition.
I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that you'll see Model S taxicabs in Montreal. But I'd also bet that it will be a very long time before there are many of them. One of the reasons for building only 20,000 a year is that Tesla knows that adoption will be gradual.
I agree that free isn't the best choice of wording because so many things are advertised as free, or have free items included, that it triggers an automatic BS reaction in people.
A more compelling argument would be that using a Tesla as a taxi would be something like: A Tesla will reduce the TCO by X% over five years--or even three years depending upon how the numbers work out. That's how Michelin promoted radial tires to fleets. They never said free, Michelin showed charts comparing tire purchase costs, fuel costs, repair costs, and tire life between radial tires and bias-ply tires. Similar charts could be made for Tesla vs. various cars when used as taxis. Telsarumors.com has done some preliminary work on this although I don't believe it's that current anymore.
A bigger question would be: Is making a push to promote Tesla Taxi a good marketing strategy? That is, would making Tesla be known as a taxi sour the other markets where there are potentially more sales.
A more compelling argument would be that using a Tesla as a taxi would be something like: A Tesla will reduce the TCO by X% over five years--or even three years depending upon how the numbers work out. That's how Michelin promoted radial tires to fleets. They never said free, Michelin showed charts comparing tire purchase costs, fuel costs, repair costs, and tire life between radial tires and bias-ply tires. Similar charts could be made for Tesla vs. various cars when used as taxis. Telsarumors.com has done some preliminary work on this although I don't believe it's that current anymore.
A bigger question would be: Is making a push to promote Tesla Taxi a good marketing strategy? That is, would making Tesla be known as a taxi sour the other markets where there are potentially more sales.
Let me do a little more detailed analysis...
Toyota Corolla 2012 fully loaded: $26 155, total cost of 5y loan @ 7% = $518 / month or $31 080 including interests for 5 years.
Model S 2012 base 40kw: $50 000, total cost of 5y loan @7% = $990 / month or $59 400 over 5y.
Cost of gas: Corolla is listed at 7.4l/100 km, Cost for 300km is 7.4liter * 3 * ~$1.30 = $30 / day or $900 /month.
Cost of electricity: I will need around 45kwh to go 300km, 45kw * ~$0.10 = $4.50 / day or $135 / month
Cost of repairs: Corolla: brake changes + Oil changes $100/month (Number is subject to debates, but who cares...)
Cost of repairs: Tesla: $10/month (no need of oil changes and brakes are changed 10 times less often)
To recap:
Model S: loan $990, fuel $135, repairs $10 Total: $1135
Toyota Corolla: loan $518, fuel $900, repairs $100 Total: $1518
In this case we can't really say it's free but you will save $300 monthly or $3600 per year owning a model S to taxi 300km/day.
Note that I depreciate both cars to zero after 5 years. But my guess is Model S will be worth about 10k after 5 years and I don't give much value to the beaten-up Toyota with 600 000km on the engine.
Pay 20k (or probably much less) and get a brand new battery and save even more for next five years.
Toyota Corolla 2012 fully loaded: $26 155, total cost of 5y loan @ 7% = $518 / month or $31 080 including interests for 5 years.
Model S 2012 base 40kw: $50 000, total cost of 5y loan @7% = $990 / month or $59 400 over 5y.
Cost of gas: Corolla is listed at 7.4l/100 km, Cost for 300km is 7.4liter * 3 * ~$1.30 = $30 / day or $900 /month.
Cost of electricity: I will need around 45kwh to go 300km, 45kw * ~$0.10 = $4.50 / day or $135 / month
Cost of repairs: Corolla: brake changes + Oil changes $100/month (Number is subject to debates, but who cares...)
Cost of repairs: Tesla: $10/month (no need of oil changes and brakes are changed 10 times less often)
To recap:
Model S: loan $990, fuel $135, repairs $10 Total: $1135
Toyota Corolla: loan $518, fuel $900, repairs $100 Total: $1518
In this case we can't really say it's free but you will save $300 monthly or $3600 per year owning a model S to taxi 300km/day.
Note that I depreciate both cars to zero after 5 years. But my guess is Model S will be worth about 10k after 5 years and I don't give much value to the beaten-up Toyota with 600 000km on the engine.
Pay 20k (or probably much less) and get a brand new battery and save even more for next five years.
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