Model S alpha to be released

[Jaff]

They might have to Doug...I deal with the retail public everyday...it's astounding how many folks can't listen well or comprehend current data due to a myriad of reasons.

To me, the most distressing ones are the ones who make no honest effort to stay informed...the crowd that watches reality TV instead of the news...the ones who never read anything let alone read to learn.

I think TM should be lobbying the government for some standards in description of EV products...almost to the point that the words "electric vehicle" can only be used to describe a true EV...set up some different lingo for Fisker / Volt style hybrids and Prius style plug in Hybrids.

If standards are not set (and auto manufactures are left to their own devices to represent / misrepresent their products), the retail public will become very confused and change and acceptance will probably become somewhat more difficult...

Sounds like Tesla will have to advertise it as a "pure electric" to distinguish it from hybrids...

 

[vfx]

...
To hear some tell it, you would think Tesla invented the electric car. Yet here they are being beat to market by the majors (and at least one start up) in their efforts to release a fully electric sedan, by nearly two full years in some cases...

The one to watch out for here is Infiniti. Nissan has the tech and the size to pull off a sedan in a short window.

 

[vfx]

...
The white foam model S we saw first at Space-X and now in the Autodesk museum could be called a "Concept"...

That event had 4 "cars". Clay mockup, Dark gray version (chrome crosshatch grill) the white roller and the driveable silver one (now red).

 

[qwk]

The one to watch out for here is Infiniti. Nissan has the tech and the size to pull off a sedan in a short window.

Although they definately could, there is absolutely no way they can match the specs of the model s for the price. Not only do they not have the technology to compete, you have to remember that Nissan has a middleman(the dealers) who also need to profit.

 

[mattjs33]

.... there is absolutely no way they can match the specs of the model s for the price. Not only do they not have the technology to compete...

"Absolutely no way"? Based on what evidence? Do we have any way to know what the actual specs of the production Model S will be? How about the selling price? Anybody can make promises.

 

[vfx]

Have you seen the price of the LEAF?

 

[qwk]

"Absolutely no way"? Based on what evidence? Do we have any way to know what the actual specs of the production Model S will be? How about the selling price? Anybody can make promises.

They don't even have thermal battery management in the Leaf, not to mention a DC motor etc. How many Nissan cars out there hav an aluminum frame/body? How about a 17" screen? I could go on and on.

Tesla has had cars on the road for 2 years now with a 200+ mile range. Nissan can barely squeeze out 100, and the car isn't even out yet.

 

[mattjs33]

They don't even have thermal battery management in the Leaf, not to mention a DC motor etc. How many Nissan cars out there hav an aluminum frame/body? How about a 17" screen? I could go on and on.

You're right, the world's third largest automaker, who has been around since 1914, most likely does not posses the resources or the engineering talent to come up with such things...

 

[qwk]

You're right, the world's third largest automaker, who has been around since 1914, most likely does not posses the resources or the engineering talent to come up with such things...

I'm sure they could, but at what price? You have to realize that R&D factors into the cars price.

 

[mattjs33]

I'm sure they could, but at what price? You have to realize that R&D factors into the cars price.

Of course it does. Consider a few things...

Nissan sold over 3 million cars last year worldwide. Three million. That's more than 8000 cars a day. Or put another way, more than twice Tesla's total output over three years, every 24 hours. Their total budget is unfathomably large (the $50 million that Toyota has invested in Tesla is pocket change to them). So I think they have the resources to spread out any R&D costs over a large number of sales.

And yet, Carlos Ghosn has gone on record saying that he would need to sell 1 million electric cars a year, in order to be able to do so at a competitive price point, and make money doing so. So as expensive as the Leaf is, Nissan still loses money on every one they sell. And it still takes a government spiff (glad I can help you pay for your car) to sweeten the deal enough that consumers won't balk at the high price.

Tesla, of course, has yet to make a profit. So they are also losing money on every car they sell, even at a starting price over $100,000 (could explain the extravagantly priced option list - $6000 for metallic paint? Come on!). So has Tesla somehow figured out how to spread development costs of the much more advanced Model S over a mere tens of thousands of cars per year, and make a profit doing so? Because we all know there is no way that Tesla is capable of producing 1 million cars a year. Or does Elon Musk, a man with only limited experience in the automobile industry, know something that Carlos Ghosn, a man who has spent most of his career in this industry, doesn't?

Elon Musk is in this to make money, not to change the world. If he were, he'd declare himself a charity and give the cars away. So at some point he's going to have to produce a lot more cars, or start charging more. If he does the latter, his cars will be positioned properly as what they are; very expensive, albeit very cool, exotics (in a similar vein to a Lamborghini). More likely however, he's positioning the company so that he can sell it to either Mercedes-Benz or Toyota, and pocket a sizeble profit, just as he did with PayPal.

Sorry, but these are the realities of the business he's in. It's way more complicated than websites. And by the way, Tesla didn't engineer that aluminum chassis, Lotus did.

 

[dsm363]

mattjs33: Tesla does not lose money on each Roadster now (they did at the very beginning). They're not turning a profit at this point because they are investing in the company to grow and to bring the Model S to market. $6,000 is for custom paint (can do the same thing with Porsche and other companies), not metallic paint.
You helped pay for lots of other cars too, not just the Roadster since that EV tax credit is not limited to Tesla.

 

[qwk]

Of course it does. Consider a few things...

Nissan sold over 3 million cars last year worldwide. Three million. That's more than 8000 cars a day. Or put another way, more than twice Tesla's total output over three years, every 24 hours. Their total budget is unfathomably large (the $50 million that Toyota has invested in Tesla is pocket change to them). So I think they have the resources to spread out any R&D costs over a large number of sales.

And yet, Carlos Ghosn has gone on record saying that he would need to sell 1 million electric cars a year, in order to be able to do so at a competitive price point, and make money doing so. So as expensive as the Leaf is, Nissan still loses money on every one they sell. And it still takes a government spiff (glad I can help you pay for your car) to sweeten the deal enough that consumers won't balk at the high price.

Tesla, of course, has yet to make a profit. So they are also losing money on every car they sell, even at a starting price over $100,000 (could explain the extravagantly priced option list - $6000 for metallic paint? Come on!). So has Tesla somehow figured out how to spread development costs of the much more advanced Model S over a mere tens of thousands of cars per year, and make a profit doing so? Because we all know there is no way that Tesla is capable of producing 1 million cars a year. Or does Elon Musk, a man with only limited experience in the automobile industry, know something that Carlos Ghosn, a man who has spent most of his career in this industry, doesn't?

Elon Musk is in this to make money, not to change the world. If he were, he'd declare himself a charity and give the cars away. So at some point he's going to have to produce a lot more cars, or start charging more. If he does the latter, his cars will be positioned properly as what they are; very expensive, albeit very cool, exotics (in a similar vein to a Lamborghini). More likely however, he's positioning the company so that he can sell it to either Mercedes-Benz or Toyota, and pocket a sizeble profit, just as he did with PayPal.

Sorry, but these are the realities of the business he's in. It's way more complicated than websites. And by the way, Tesla didn't engineer that aluminum chassis, Lotus did.

I doubt Nissan is going to deviate much from the Leaf design in their Infinity EV. Many of the parts will be off the shelf, so R&D costs are minimized. This tells me the car will be nothing special. I have been dissappointed by the big automakers and their EV's for so long, I have come to expect this. Only time will tell.

An electric car is totally diifferent than an ICE. The Model S drivetrain doesn't differ much from the roadster other than size and h2o cooling of the motor. Tesla's AC motor design was "borrowed" from AC Propulsion. They also have many patents that aid them in the production of EV's.
Tesla doesn't have as much overhead as the big automakers. Unlike the big automakers, they are also an EV only company, so guess what? They focus on EV's.

The roadster has a carbon fiber body and is built by lotus(they have to make a profit too). Do you realize how much carbon fiber costs? How about shipping the car from the UK? The 100k price is still very reasonable considering all of the unnecesary costs that go into each roadster.

I don't think a regular Elise has an aluminium frame, so technically the roadster is built by Lotus using Tesla's specs.

We could debate all these things all day long, but in the end no auto maker big or small will be matching Tesla's performance and industry changing offerings for quite some time. If it wasn't for Tesla, I'm pretty sure the Leaf or any other EV would not be going into production this soon.

 

[qwk]

Tesla does not lose money on each Roadster now (they did at the very beginning). They're not turning a profit at this point because they are investing in the company to grow and to bring the Model S to market. $6,000 is for custom paint (can do the same thing with Porsche and other companies), not metallic paint.
You helped pay for lots of other cars too, not just the Roadster since that EV tax credit is not limited to Tesla.

It's funny how people are amazed at the option prices. This is a 100k+ car, the options fall right in line with that.

 

[dsm363]

It's funny how people are amazed at the option prices. This is a 100k+ car, the options fall right in line with that.

I was responding to mattjs33's comments but yeah, I agree.

 

[mattjs33]

You helped pay for lots of other cars too, not just the Roadster since that EV tax credit is not limited to Tesla.

Actually I wasn't thinking in terms of the owners on this forum, but more for the buyers of the upcoming EVs. Depending on when that tax credit was enacted, some of you got it, but some didn't, I guess?

 

[vfx]

I don't think a regular Elise has an aluminium frame, so technically the roadster is built by Lotus using Tesla's specs.

Waaaay wrong.

 

[TEG]

So, this video that Doug_G pointed out says a bit more about the "Alpha" term:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqi_QnBlgGs
It does appear they are using computer industry terminology now, so expect "Beta" and "Release Candidate" versions of Model S sometime after seeing the Alpha.

Also, the Red one is being called a "demonstration prototype".

 

[roblab]

But the Ford Focus is still entry level Matt.

I would agree with you that even though the Volt & the Karma are not true EV's the overwhelming majority of the general public percieves them as such...because of this, the Karma will be legitmate competition for the Model S...I'm not sure I would put the volt in the Model S / Karma league though...

When gas in the USA is $8 to $10 a gallon (as it already is in Europe, and simply heavily subsidized here) there will be a whole lot of instant knowledge gained as to which is the electric (Tesla, Leaf), which is gas only (Prius etc.) , and which is gas *mostly* (them hybrid thingies).

 

[Jaff]

LOL...very true roblab...some only learn well when they're under duress...(fiscal) pain is a quick & thorough teacher!

When gas in the USA is $8 to $10 a gallon (as it already is in Europe, and simply heavily subsidized here) there will be a whole lot of instant knowledge gained as to which is the electric (Tesla, Leaf), which is gas only (Prius etc.) , and which is gas *mostly* (them hybrid thingies).

 

[dsm363]

LOL...very true roblab...some only learn well when they're under duress...(fiscal) pain is a quick & thorough teacher!

Not in the US. Only if gas goes above $4 a gallon and stays there for over a year or two will it ever make a lasting difference. Large truck sales are already back on the rise after gas spiked two summers ago I believe. Some people did learn though and downsized so it did make some difference.