The DOW hasn't hit 6k since the mid 1990's. It didn't hit 6k even at the depths following the 2008 crash. If we hit 6k, Tesla's fate is going to be one of the least of our collective problems. If 6k is likely, befriending a doomsday prepper might be my best move.
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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass investing TSLA
Well I guess so; If we see DOW at 6,000 my cash will be worth a fortune; Course there won't be any TSLA to buy with it, so it won't matter
Zzzz...
Member
BTW, someone made a huge bet that price of TSLA will drop to ~$15 or even lower by Jan '15.
Check open interest of Jan '15 $18 puts No other open interest on any other TSLA options are coming close to that one, even short term ones
Check open interest of Jan '15 $18 puts
No other open interest on any other TSLA options are coming close to that one, even short term ones
mitch672
Active Member
BTW, someone made a huge bet that price of TSLA will drop to ~$15 or even lower by Jan '15.
Check open interest of Jan '15 $18 puts
Dammit, my crystal ball is broken, I'm going to use my time machine instead, once it's invented
No one can predict the future, TSLA is just as likely to be $100 by JAN '15, than $15
As Elon said in his CNBC video interview, each placed Model S seems to lead to 2,3 or more reservations (he said in some cases 20, must have been referring to Ben/Cinergi). If gas prices spike up to $5/$6 in the US, it won't take many wealthy people looking for alternatives to drive Tesla reservations way up. The future is hard to predict, I think most of us see a bright/promising future for Tesla, if they can just survive long enough to become profitable, and build up some cash reserves they'll need for development of Gen3... I'd really like to see it funded from sales of the current products, than issuing more stock or borrowing more money (resulting in dilution)
PureAmps
Model S P85 (#2817)
BTW, someone made a huge bet that price of TSLA will drop to ~$15 or even lower by Jan '15.
Check open interest of Jan '15 $18 puts
Tesla's shares are hard to borrow, so they are expensive to short. Schwab was paying 4% last year to lend out shares to short. Buying long term puts is a cheaper way for some to make a "short" bet. They could also have been purchased as insurance against a long position.
The implied volatility for those puts is quite high at 64.7, as the market makers need to cover their higher hedging expenses related to interest paid on shares that are lended out to short. Still, the delta-hedged short position for those puts only represents 213K shares held short, less than 1% of total short interest. So those puts are a relatively small bet against the company compared to the very high short interest in the stock.
strider
Active Member
Take a look at a chart from 1929. There was a drop, rebound, and then the real drop - we're still in the rebound phase. The Fed has extended the rebound beyond what many have predicted with a fantastical amount of free money but there's no reason to think the pattern will be avoided.
Obviously this stuff is outside of Tesla's control - all they can do is keep innovating and delivering. But the very real possibility of the world slipping back into recession is something to take into account when investing in any stocks right now.
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It means fewer people want to borrow shares which means less short interest. Said the other way, when lots of people want to borrow shares to short, the brokers will increase the rate to entice people to lend shares.
PureAmps
Model S P85 (#2817)
As strider said, the interest rate is determined by supply and demand. With the additional stock offering by Tesla in Q4, the number of shares available to short has increased. My guess is that may have been the larger contributing factor to a reduction in the rate paid.
bought a few tesla shares for the lulz myself now.
regarding the expected sales am i the only one who finds his 30-40k worldwide estimate per year anticlimactic?
i mean the model S is:
-competitive pricewise with e.g. bmw7 or S-Class
-maintenance savings outvalue the 12k battery replacement
-similar or better build quality than competitors
i understand that back in 2009 Tesla couldnt announce they planned to sell 50000 model-S per year. Car was just to intangible at that point.
But why these low expectations now? Why should the Model-S only get a meager 0,5% of the premium-market and not say 4%?
The fact that demand increases in places with a lot of Tesla-Customers sounds like viral demand growth rather than extenuating one
regarding the expected sales am i the only one who finds his 30-40k worldwide estimate per year anticlimactic?
i mean the model S is:
-competitive pricewise with e.g. bmw7 or S-Class
-maintenance savings outvalue the 12k battery replacement
-similar or better build quality than competitors
i understand that back in 2009 Tesla couldnt announce they planned to sell 50000 model-S per year. Car was just to intangible at that point.
But why these low expectations now? Why should the Model-S only get a meager 0,5% of the premium-market and not say 4%?
The fact that demand increases in places with a lot of Tesla-Customers sounds like viral demand growth rather than extenuating one
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NigelM
Recovering Member
a) Because TSLA will get hammered if they state a big number and don't make it. The reality of the stock market/analyst game is that you set an expectation and then you beat it. Anything below expectations is bad news.
b) Because then everyone will ask "so why aren't you ramping up for xx,xxxx?" and start fretting over the capex plan and projecting cash flow problems.
hm but the number still dont quite fit: Tesla wants to reach 500 MS/wk this year-implying they havent yet. Even if they did so tomorrow this would only make about 24k MS this year.
Didnt Elon say somewhere in the blooomberg interview he wanted to decrease the waiting time for customers?and to do this he want to get
from 400 to 500 cars per week? to me that sounds like there are some scale problems ahead.
Didnt Elon say somewhere in the blooomberg interview he wanted to decrease the waiting time for customers?and to do this he want to get
from 400 to 500 cars per week? to me that sounds like there are some scale problems ahead.
Norbert
TSLA will win
Tesla said they could *already* build 500/week, if they wanted to. Currently, they make about 400/week.
30k - 40k is the expected potential demand, however getting there requires a larger store (and service center) network in the US, Europe, and Asia. (Not only higher production.)
Words of HABIT
Active Member
I Believe!
I'm new to the Tesla Forum, and this is my first post! :smile:
Been following/investing in TM since November 2012. TM is still in its infancy and prone to dramatic swings in share price over the most trivial of affairs.
What we know:
Fact: Battery cost will reduce, its size decrease and performance improved year over year (y-o-y), on a much greater scale than advancements over ICE.
Fact: Economies of scale will decrease TM manufacturing price y-o-y.
Fact: Supercharge stations and other electric source fill up stations will increase y-o-y
Fact: Most of my friends have never heard of Tesla or TM (I am a professional Project Manager). With greater recognition comes greater opportunity. No Dave, it's not a fish.
Fact: Expanding global reach will increase y.o.y.
Prediction: The price of Oil will continue to rise.
Prediction: Model X will outsell the Model S, by replacing all the SUV ICE >$100 fill ups at the pump. Some would rather spend that money on a nice meal with the family (not everyone enjoys eating in their car).
Prediction: TM will be profitable in 2013 with 20k production.
Prediction: Model X in 2014, Gen.III in 2016
Prediction: Use of Solar panels will work its way onto the car itself, most likely in the roof panel, for constant charging.
The rest is noise.
Sit back, turn off Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance and enjoy life and those around you. The Tesla training wheels have just come off. This is a long term hold for 2016 horizon. Tesla is the future, and the future is coming whether we like it or not. I Believe!
Owner of Tesla iPhone App - Model X to follow
I'm new to the Tesla Forum, and this is my first post! :smile:
Been following/investing in TM since November 2012. TM is still in its infancy and prone to dramatic swings in share price over the most trivial of affairs.
What we know:
Fact: Battery cost will reduce, its size decrease and performance improved year over year (y-o-y), on a much greater scale than advancements over ICE.
Fact: Economies of scale will decrease TM manufacturing price y-o-y.
Fact: Supercharge stations and other electric source fill up stations will increase y-o-y
Fact: Most of my friends have never heard of Tesla or TM (I am a professional Project Manager). With greater recognition comes greater opportunity. No Dave, it's not a fish.
Fact: Expanding global reach will increase y.o.y.
Prediction: The price of Oil will continue to rise.
Prediction: Model X will outsell the Model S, by replacing all the SUV ICE >$100 fill ups at the pump. Some would rather spend that money on a nice meal with the family (not everyone enjoys eating in their car).
Prediction: TM will be profitable in 2013 with 20k production.
Prediction: Model X in 2014, Gen.III in 2016
Prediction: Use of Solar panels will work its way onto the car itself, most likely in the roof panel, for constant charging.
The rest is noise.
Sit back, turn off Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance and enjoy life and those around you. The Tesla training wheels have just come off. This is a long term hold for 2016 horizon. Tesla is the future, and the future is coming whether we like it or not. I Believe!
Owner of Tesla iPhone App - Model X to follow
Good post, although I think this last prediction is irrelevant. The real estate atop a vehicle is too small, and too rarely in the sun, to make a meaningful contribution to the vehicle's power needs.
While this car cover may seem somewhat impractical, we have to remember that some of the world's greatest inventions began with silly ideas. In any case, such a product would only provide a small charge but may be the difference between making it home or getting home on a flat-bed.
Highly unlikely. The amount of power provided by a rooftop solar panel probably wouldn't be enough to make up for the extra weight involved. More efficient cells will not change that; there simply isn't enough energy in sunlight. You need a larger area. Put the solar cells on the garage, not the car.
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