Is Tesla's "End of 2014" Supercharger map possible?

[tom66]

I think Tesla are focusing resources and finances more on Europe and Asia, which is probably sensible as they're introducing cars there so they want to provide an incentive to purchase. There are planned to be 13 superchargers in Japan alone, and London's getting a 4th supercharger. Crazy how fast this network is building out.

 

[Cottonwood]

Cottonwood... I came up with the 83 number by doing an overlay of the current Tesla supercharger N America (U.S.) map and the 'end' 2014 map. My count was 85 then and now reduced to 83. I did it rather quickly to get a number that Tesla was showing via their map. So as those end 2014 dots turn red I reduce the number by one.

Not very scientific, I know, It just worked for me as their projection!

I DO think Tesla will get 'r' done!

I went back and did a careful count. (It gets a little tight and confusing around New York City) I may be plus or minus one or two, but I think that I am pretty close. Below is the map that I worked from if someone else wants to do a count.

I subdivided by the TMC regions as defined at North America. Here are my results:

Region	Count
Canada	13
Hawaii
Northwest	16
California	26
Mountain/Southwest	43
Texas	6
Midwest/Great Lakes	35
Southeast	22
Florida	12
Mid-Atlantic	27
New England	13
Total	213

That give a North American total of 213 and a U.S. total of 200. If you look at Supercharger.Info then the current North American total is 113 and the U.S. total is 110, for a shortfall of 100 in North America and 90 in the U.S. That count includes the Supercharger in central Chicago that Tesla does not have on their map, but we will give Tesla that one.

Interesting observations: The only states without a Supercharger on this map are Arkansas, Alaska, Hawaii, Iowa, Nebraska, and North Dakota. California has the most of any state with 26, and the Southwest has the most of any region with 43.

Please, if someone has better counts, correct me. With 111 calendar days, or about 3.5 months, left in the year, and the number of sites in the permit phase and construction phase, I don't see how Tesla can get close to the numbers on the 2014 map.

Tesla, please prove me wrong!



Screen shot from Tesla Motors Supercharger Page today:

My subdivide and count work. The circled numbers are region totals, and some regions were further subdivided for easier counting. At the New York Connecticut border, the little blue tic is because I put what I think is Greenwich, CT in the New England count and not the Mid-Atlantic count.

 

[Tyl]

I'll go blind if I do this again!!!!!! but here is my math.... I came up with 82 more to go in the U. S. I laughed when I saw Cottonwoods maps! They looked the ones on my desk:biggrin::biggrin: Here's mine. I circled the ones yet to come according to Tesla's end 2014 map.

 

[Cottonwood]

I'll go blind if I do this again!!!!!! but here is my math.... I came up with 82 more to go in the U. S. I laughed when I saw Cottonwoods maps! They looked the ones on my desk:biggrin::biggrin: Here's mine. I circled the ones yet to come according to Tesla's end 2014 map.

I found it far easier to count all of the red dots on the 2014 map and then subtract the tally on Supercharger.Info. That way I don't have to ID new sites. We do have a difference of 90 - 82 or 8. That is a pretty big difference. On first glance, I think that you missed a couple near NYC and Erie, PA. BTW, I claim the real number to look at is 100 to go; I want to do some drives in Canada. It's pretty nice up there!

Anyone else want to give it a try?

 

[RiverBrick]

How many "End of 2013" sites are not yet up?

TM released a SpC video in May 2013, and in it you can find a "within six months," so Nov 2013 screen:

Staying within my neighboring states and provinces gives these MIA locations:

1) London, Ontario --- Was yanked from its purgatory of "Coming Soon" last Spring, but still appears on End of 2014.
2) Belleville, Ontario --- Has disappeared from all public 2014-2015 maps, perhaps because it was considered redundant to Kingston, Ontario. Unfortunately, though Kingston is listed as "Coming Soon," the start of construction doesn't appear imminent.
3) Somewhere between Portland, ME and Portsmouth, NH --- Listed as "Coming Soon," but is there proof that a location has been found and permitted?
4) A South-Central NH location --- No longer on any map, but there will eventually be a site in Hookset, NH.

In the next screen from the video, "by May 2014," there are seven sites within Summer driving distance of me. Only one, Cornwall, is open. However, I knew there were going to be delays when I purchased.

 

[wk057]

So looking more and more like this isn't happening

The blue dots in this difference map between the current map and the latest end of 2014 map are the ones on the 2014 map that are not yet open.

I counted 87 unopened in the USA.

Today is day 270 of 2014, leaving 95 days in the year. That means we need about 6 to 7 superchargers opened per week in the USA alone to make the 2014 map happen.

My money is on maybe 15 more openings this year, mainly because it seems like the USA just is not Tesla's focus anymore.

 

[DieAbetic]

Tesla I need to make it from California to Virginia for Christmas in a 60. Make it happen!

 

[wk057]

Tesla I need to make it from California to Virginia for Christmas in a 60. Make it happen!

Can't that already be done?

 

[DieAbetic]

Can't that already be done?

Yes, SamO and a few others did it. To clarify, I'd like to take a more southern route to get there. Current route would add a lot of time driving.

 

[wk057]

Yeah, I'm hoping at least I-70 is done by next summer. I think that's doable. By December probably not.

I-40 would be even better...

 

[swegman]

It is becoming more disappointing each day as it appears likely that Tesla will not get anywhere even remotely close to their projections. Looking at supercharger.info, the majority of Tesla's efforts appear to be directed to Europe and Asia.

 

[araxara]

On the bright side, near the end of the year (i.e. now), the Coming Soon map should have more dots than the 2014 map. That's assuming Tesla updates the map accordingly.

 

[wk057]

It is becoming more disappointing each day as it appears likely that Tesla will not get anywhere even remotely close to their projections. Looking at supercharger.info, the majority of Tesla's efforts appear to be directed to Europe and Asia.

Yeah, unfortunately that seems to be the case...

In the past 6 months Tesla has been opening a new supercharger in North America an average of every 5.45 days. I'll note that the past 6 months would have been pretty much the optimal construction season also.

In Europe they have been opening superchargers on average every 3.21 days, and in Asia every 9 days. Combined non-North America average of an opening every 2.37 days, over twice as much effort as North America. Europe alone is getting 70% more openings than North America.

There are still plenty of dots on the Coming Soon map that were there when I got my Model S at the beginning of the year that are still not open. Definitely not "soon" IMO.

So yeah, definitely disappointing that North America, by the numbers, has definitely been thrown on the back burner.

 

[iffatall]

I am fine with the delays as long as the reason is the necessary European (or Asian) ramp up, and the rate of adding of SCs will go back to being (positively) correlated with car sales. I am hoping that Tesla is not thinking - once we have the major routes covered, once the (almost meaningless) coverage circles cover up the entire country, we can relax and focus more on the maintenance of existing SC infrastructure than adding more.

 

[Cottonwood]

Go to Superchargers and click on the "Charts" selection in the upper right. This is a good chart of cumulative installs by regions, North America, Europe, and Asia. The big push in Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 in North America for the Elon road trip, the work in Europe in July/Aug 2014 for the European August vacation season are pretty obvious.

Using the data that you can get from mouse-overs on this chart, I get the following results for the 3 months of July, August, and September:

[table="width: 600, class: grid]
[tr]
[td]Region[/td] [td]Completed per Month[/td] [td]Total[/td] [td]Begin[/td] [td]End[/td]
[/tr]

[tr]
[td]North America[/td] [td]6.33[/td] [td]19[/td] [td]98[/td] [td]117[/td]
[/tr]

[tr]
[td]Europe[/td] [td]15.33[/td] [td]46[/td] [td]24[/td] [td]70[/td]
[/tr]

[tr]
[td]Asia[/td] [td]5.67[/td] [td]17[/td] [td]3[/td] [td]20[/td]
[/tr]

[tr]
[td][/td] [td][/td] [td][/td] [td][/td] [td][/td]
[/tr]

[tr]
[td]Total[/td] [td]27.33[/td] [td]82[/td] [td]125[/td] [td]207[/td]
[/tr]

[/table]

It looks like Tesla is getting pretty close to a Supercharger a day install rate, the question is how will those be allocated world-wide.

I hope that more will come to North America soon. Covering some key routes and regions in the near future would really be nice. Tesla if you are listening, here is my wish list, sorted geographically. You are already working on most of these, but as a farmer that I worked for as a teenager used to say, "Don't wanna rush y'all none, but every little chance ya git, hurry up!"

• Western Canada through to Edmonton.
• I-90, Washington State to South Dakota.
• I-80, California to Utah.
• I-70 from Denver to Baltimore.
• I-40 and I-35 routes into Texas.
• Chicago to Florida Route.
• I-10 from Texas to Florida.
• Detroit to Toronto to Montreal to Boston.
• New England connections to the ski areas and Maine.
• Key West, just because...

After that, 48,000 miles of Interstate Highways at 133 miles per Supercharger could be covered by about 360 Superchargers. Of course there is Canada and all those interesting non-interstate routes. Just keep building Superchargers...

 

[swegman]

Something is wrong with the Europe numbers.

 

[Cottonwood]

Something is wrong with the Europe numbers.

Thanks!

I had a typo. The Europe end number is 70, not 17. Now corrected.

BTW, the current Europe number is 72, but the last two went live in October.

 

[detlefo]

@Cottonwood, You left out I-80 Truckee to Salt Lake City. Very high on my wish list. How long do Central CA Teslas have to go North or South to get to the rest of the country? I would guess that the SF Bay Area is probably has one of the densities of Teslas in the country.

 

[mrElbe]

Biggest delay is time to obtain local permits. Most zoning regulations do not allow auto fueling service stations because they were written for gasoline types.

 

[Cottonwood]

@Cottonwood, You left out I-80 Truckee to Salt Lake City. Very high on my wish list. How long do Central CA Teslas have to go North or South to get to the rest of the country? I would guess that the SF Bay Area is probably has one of the densities of Teslas in the country.

Very good point! Nephi, UT to Truckee, CA is 634 miles. With perfect placement and 133 miles between Superchargers, that is only 4 Superchargers. Put in one more for limited choices in location across remote Nevada and Utah, and it's still only 5 Superchargers to install to create a very important link. I added it to my list above.

- - - Updated - - -

Biggest delay is time to obtain local permits. Most zoning regulations do not allow auto fueling service stations because they were written for gasoline types.

Planning and Zoning approval can take from 0 to many months depending on the local government and politics. For example, it appears that Red Deer, AB does not require any approvals: Western Canada Superchargers - Red Deer, AB — Transformer install and connection can take a few days to many months. The most constant seems to be construction time at 3-5 weeks for most locations.

It is important to remember that no matter what the delays, if Tesla keeps starting locations at a certain rate, eventually (after all the delays settle out), Superchargers will be turned on at that same rate. Tesla just has to keep starting locations and building the Supercharger Cabinets to supply the builds!