How trustworthy is Tesla's predicted "2015, 2016" supercharger map?

[wk057]

So it sounds like, if you were so inclined, you could highlight what Bonnie was asking about by addding a third color and turning some of the chargers that are now red on your map, to green, to indicate that they are active, but weren't on the 2015 map, right? The green pins would be SCs that show on the Tesla current map but not the Tesla 2015 map.

I'm not suggesting that you need to do this, but just trying to make sure that I and others understand everything.

Edit: This would not account for expansions, of course, but would account for newly opened sites that were not on the 2015 map.

Edit 2: Re-reading some of the posts, I see a logistical issue with my post. The only way my post is correct is if either a) Tesla made no additions to the 2015 map between the time they published it, and the time wk057 took a copy of it to use for comparison, or b) if wk057 were to use a 2015 map as originally published, as opposed to one Tesla kept updating with new openings.

Yeah, I don't see any pins on the current map that aren't on the 2015 map. I'll have to see if I have an older 2015 copy saved anywhere, or if anyone else does.

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I found a copy of the 2015 map from April '15. They changed their rendering method a bit (pins are all shifted), but I see 4 pins that are on the 2015 now that were not on the 2015 map then.

One in each of these states: California, Oregon, Utah, and Massachusetts.

 

[jerry33]

This is one of our concerns in considering buying a CPO Model S next fall. The Model S would be our only car, so the SuperCharger corridor from Mpls to Winnipeg is a requirement.

Between Minneapolis and Winnipeg there is the Old Mill State Park RV park (River Falls, MN) which has 50 amp chargers according to rvparking.com. This should be the only charging you need between Winnipeg and Baxter. Before SCs were available we did lots of RV park charging. You'll want to verify this information by contacting the park.

 

[bonnie]

I found a copy of the 2015 map from April '15. They changed their rendering method a bit (pins are all shifted), but I see 4 pins that are on the 2015 now that were not on the 2015 map then.

One in each of these states: California, Oregon, Utah, and Massachusetts.

I think if you use the Way Back Machine, you'll see that there are many, many more locations that were not originally identified. The Supercharger locations have always been fluid, with locations modified based on where there was more need. Also should mention that the Destination Charging program was added onto the program, which is also providing electrons to travelers.

It's hard to say they've overestimated how much they can do when I look at where we were and where we are. I think that the Supercharging Team has been steamrolling their way across continents and doing an amazing job.

But. I agree that IF someone absolutely needs a future Supercharger and is basing a purchase on a specific location, then they should wait. Tesla says it right on the Supercharger map page: "The map above is a representation of the corridors we plan to enable and the timing thereof. Exact locations and timing may vary."

 

[wk057]

I think if you use the Way Back Machine, you'll see that there are many, many more locations that were not originally identified. The Supercharger locations have always been fluid, with locations modified based on where there was more need. Also should mention that the Destination Charging program was added onto the program, which is also providing electrons to travelers.

It's hard to say they've overestimated how much they can do when I look at where we were and where we are. I think that the Supercharging Team has been steamrolling their way across continents and doing an amazing job.

But. I agree that IF someone absolutely needs a future Supercharger and is basing a purchase on a specific location, then they should wait. Tesla says it right on the Supercharger map page: "The map above is a representation of the corridors we plan to enable and the timing thereof. Exact locations and timing may vary."

There were definitely a lot of changes from the old 2015 map to the current one, but there were also quite a few pushed to the 2016 map.

I think the way back machine was broken for the supercharger maps since Tesla switched to pins instead of dots. Would be difficult to automatically do a difference map between the pins and dots versions, and I'm definitely not wasting time doing that manually.

I definitely agree things have come a long way. Again, without the supercharger network I wouldn't, and I couldn't have a Model S as my primary vehicle, so I probably wouldn't own one at all.

 

[Brass Guy]

I didn't spend too much time on it, so it's not exactly lined up and clean. From supercharge.info, the green are active, red-ish are the permits. Overlayed on the 2014 projection map wk057 posted above, where the red circles are the projected routes.

There are some obvious missing routes, like on I80, I94, TX, AR, ME and PA.
Also it looks like CA got about 2x as many stations as planned, FL and a few other states got more too.
It certainly would have been better if they could have dotted in the planned routes before fleshing the existing ones. As far as routes go, it looks about a year behind.

 

[FlasherZ]

I think they've done reasonably well with the 2015 map.

Tesla seems to do a semi-yearly refresh of the map. They hit the 2013 targets pretty reasonably, but 2014 was a "wish-list" map until late 2014 when they refreshed it to drop a good chunk of it and set up 2015 and 2016. So now, 2015 is a pretty reasonable projection while 2016 is the "wish-list" dumping ground until late next year, when it'll be revised to reality and pushed out as the 2017/2018 map.

 

[ScepticMatt]

Yeah, I don't see any pins on the current map that aren't on the 2015 map. I'll have to see if I have an older 2015 copy saved anywhere, or if anyone else does.

First 2015 map posted in 2015 (January 8th)

 

[Max*]

First 2015 map posted in 2015 (January 8th)

In short, A LOT is missing and Tesla's map is optimistic.

Several missing along I-81 in VA, at least 4 in PA (not counting the 2 that finally got permitted, which may be done by the end of 2015...), tons in Mississippi and Louisiana, several in Maine (though 1 out of the about 3, is permitted, and may happen by the end of 2015), several in Texas along the gulf, etc. etc. etc.

 

[Andyw2100]

My take on all this is two main points:

--Tesla has generally done a really good job of expanding the supercharger network, and for the most part has built it out about as fast or faster than expected / promised, with perhaps some small hiccups. But generally people are pleased with the number of superchargers being built.

--Tesla has not done as good a job with respect to accurately predicting where these supercharges will be built and when. People therefore should not rely on the future maps for planning purposes, because the future sites they are counting on may not be built when Tesla is predicting they will be built. The future maps could use bigger and bolder disclaimers explaining this.

Is that a fair summary?

 

[bonnie]

My take on all this is two main points:

--Tesla has generally done a really good job of expanding the supercharger network, and for the most part has built it out about as fast or faster than expected / promised, with perhaps some small hiccups. But generally people are pleased with the number of superchargers being built.

--Tesla has not done as good a job with respect to accurately predicting where these supercharges will be built and when. People therefore should not rely on the future maps for planning purposes, because the future sites they are counting on may not be built when Tesla is predicting they will be built. The future maps could use bigger and bolder disclaimers explaining this.

Is that a fair summary?

The bolded part is the only thing I take exception with. The Supercharger map says clearly that the locations/dates are approximate and could change. If they were saying 'This IS where each Spc will be placed', I'd agree with you. But they don't say that, they clearly don't say that. And sometimes they do more, sometimes less, sometimes one town over, sometimes right where the map indicates.

 

[Max*]

That's a good summary. Tesla has a precision and punctuality problem but nonetheless, they don't fail to deliver.

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The bolded part is the only thing I take exception with. The Supercharger map says clearly that the locations/dates are approximate and could change. If they were saying 'This IS where each Spc will be placed', I'd agree with you. But they don't say that, they clearly don't say that. And sometimes they do more, sometimes less, sometimes one town over, sometimes right where the map indicates.

If you overlay the SpC map posted above with supercharge.info and make the scales the same, the locations are almost spot on (minus the missing superchargers).

 

[Andyw2100]

The bolded part is the only thing I take exception with. The Supercharger map says clearly that the locations/dates are approximate and could change. If they were saying 'This IS where each Spc will be placed', I'd agree with you. But they don't say that, they clearly don't say that. And sometimes they do more, sometimes less, sometimes one town over, sometimes right where the map indicates.

That's fair.

I tried to get that point across in the last sentence about bigger disclaimers. Because while I understand what you are saying, I'm not sure that most people, when looking at the maps, necessarily realize the plans aren't more firm than they are, either because they never find the text that explains it, or because they discount that text, or for some other reason. I guess I'm saying Tesla just needs to make that point more clear, so people don't have a reason to be disappointed when one particular supercharger doesn't materialize.

It again boils down to a communications issue.

 

[Canuck]

The Tesla website has this page: Supercharger | Tesla Motors Canada

I'm sure you're familiar with it. It shows the chargers available now, and in 2015 and 2016. But how accurate do you think this is?

I'm in the upper part of the United States in the area affectionately known as "Canada". I'm over on that left side. As you can see, there aren't many chargers. I noticed they don't have a pin for my town now (and that's true), but they show one there for 2015. One of my biggest reasons for buying the car is to make use of "free" charging. Therefore, one of my biggest hesitations with buying the car is the fact there is no supercharger anywhere near me. Should I expect, based on that map, that there *will* be one this year? Or I should just hope there is? What kind of history do they have coming through with placing them where they say they will?

Hey bcsteve,

Here's the latest picture of Kelowna:

Western Canada Superchargers - Page 108

and it looks done except that Fortis needs to install the power. So it certainly appears to me Tesla met their own self-imposed deadline. However, I better not see you at this site when I travel through... this is for travel only and that's not from your home to the mall...

You will find a lot of naysayers here, complaining about delays, like the autopilot delay, etc. etc. but I have never owned a car that I have liked more than my Tesla. I look forward to driving it every day. No business is perfect, and that's especially true in the car manufacturing business, so don't expect perfection from Tesla. Deadlines will be missed. But many of those who have autopilot say it was well worth the wait. Others continue to complain. Tesla may not do it as fast as people like but they do it right, the vast majority of the time, at least in my opinion.

 

[jerry33]

The bolded part is the only thing I take exception with. The Supercharger map says clearly that the locations/dates are approximate and could change. If they were saying 'This IS where each Spc will be placed', I'd agree with you. But they don't say that, they clearly don't say that. And sometimes they do more, sometimes less, sometimes one town over, sometimes right where the map indicates.

^^^^ This. In addition so much is out of Tesla's control: Site negotiation, permitting, utility infrastructure, and to a certain extent contractors, that the best they can do is to make a SWAG.

 

[Cottonwood]

Difference map between today's supercharger map and the coming in 2015 supercharger map. (Open in red, unopened promised for 2015 in black)

I counted about 70 unopened stations in the USA, plus 8 or so in Canada. 47 days remaining in 2015, including major holidays.

According to supercharge.info, Tesla has opened exactly 100 stations in North America in 2015. That's a station open every 3.18 days. For comparison, in 2014 they opened 102 stations, which is a station roughly every 3.5 days. So, they've sped up station opening in 2015 in North America a little if they maintain this rate (honestly, I don't care much about progress in other regions).

However, even maintaining the current rate, that'll only be 14 or 15 stations open of the 70+ remaining on the 2015 map. Definitely not going to happen.

Keep in mind, again, that in mid-2014 and prior, Tesla's 2015 map basically had the entire country covered in superchargers with just a couple of routes notably missing (see my post a little ways up in this thread where I attached that map).

So, honestly... I don't put much faith in the supercharger time tables Tesla advertises. At this point we're still missing stations that were supposed to be open at the end of 2014, let alone ones that were originally supposed to be open at the end of 2015. They've already pushed that back to the end of 2016. I'm sure sometime in the next 6 months we'll have a 2017 map that will show the missing ones.

If a supercharger route is important to you, I'd definitely suggest waiting until it's actually built before buying a Tesla. The superchargers are great, and I wouldn't own a Model S without them. Long distance EV travel without the superchargers is way more trouble and way more stressful than it's worth. I definitely put some faith into their estimates on when some routes would be available and have been burned on a few so far. In their defense, they've added routes to their coming soon maps that I originally thought wouldn't be available at all, so that's a plus... but they still don't exist, so, not helping me yet.

Anyway, just figured I'd throw this out there that they've once again overestimated the supercharger roll out. Great job keeping it going, just terrible with time tables as is typical Tesla.

Thanks for the great work, but it looks like Tesla created a new 2015 map today.

See Tesla Supercharger Page for the new maps. The 2015 map in full resolution is at Full Resolution Tesla 2015 Map, and below is a cropped version of that map. Many Supercharger Sites deleted, but many remaining.

My first observations are that Denver, a Colorado Springs doublet, Jackson, MS, and the mythical Slidell, LA are on this map.

Thoughts? Can all the new ones happen in 1.5 months?

 

[FlasherZ]

Thoughts? Can all the new ones happen in 1.5 months?

My guess is that's the length of time it will take to get the permits alone, unless that's been done.

 

[mmccord]

* sigh *... Rt 80 in PA gets pushed back... Again

 

[S'toon]

Is the disclaimer "The map above is a representation of the corridors we plan to enable and the timing thereof. Exact locations and timing may vary." new? I seem to recall seeing it there before.

 

[TexasEV]

Thanks for the great work, but it looks like Tesla created a new 2015 map today.

See Tesla Supercharger Page for the new maps. The 2015 map in full resolution is at Full Resolution Tesla 2015 Map, and below is a cropped version of that map. Many Supercharger Sites deleted, but many remaining.

My first observations are that Denver, a Colorado Springs doublet, Jackson, MS, and the mythical Slidell, LA are on this map.

Thoughts? Can all the new ones happen in 1.5 months?

View attachment 101374

Slidell isn't mythical. The location has been confirmed as Fremaux Town Center.

I'm curious about the Austin, TX area on this map. It looks like there is another icon mostly hidden underneath San Marcos and another icon to the northwest of Austin. I have no idea what the hidden one might be. The one to the northwest of Austin could be the new service center, which will be in northwest Austin but not that far out. Both of these new 2015 icons are still missing from the 2016 map. Other than Victoria, the route to south Texas has been pushed to 2016. I'm not surprised.

 

[jerry33]

Come on guys and gals, it's the middle of November. There are effectively three working weeks left in the year. They will be doing good to finish the eight they have under construction by then. I suspect they have the sites contracted subject to a successful permit application. I'm looking forward to the one in Lindale, TX.