The market is forward looking. Tesla is making the exact same cars it made a year ago (I suppose they added a taller Model 3 but that should have already been priced in). The only logical explanation for the share price increase is that FSD is working.
From the conference call yesterday:
"And we're currently testing Full Self-Driving software for intersections and city streets and narrow streets. So I personally tested the latest Alpha build of the Full Self-Driving software when I drive my car, and it is really, I think, profoundly better than people realize, yes, really profound. It's like amazing.
So it's almost getting to a point where I can go from my house to work with no interventions despite going through construction and widely varying situations. So this is why I'm very confident about its Full Self-Driving functionality being complete by the end of this year. It's because I'm literally driving it."
"So They seem to have just like a giant Improvement. Probably roll it out later this year. But, you know, it'll be able to do traffic lights, stops, turns, everything, you know pretty much and then it will be a long march of nines essentially. So definitely way better than human, but how much better is going to be?"
The funny thing is that I still don't believe! I do believe that markets are usually efficient though so the cognitive dissonance is upsetting.