Dennisj00
Member
Even my wife listened to the CC and commented that Elon’s speech was several minutes (?) behind his thoughts.
Being a Tesla investor has been great! Haven’t lost a dime!
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Being a Tesla investor has been great! Haven’t lost a dime!
Really good news, but I really have to question how this was handled. Why was their a need to suddenly clarify this particular statement? It wasn't factually wrong, it was just confusingly worded. But that is par for the course with Elon.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Yep. Now we're somewhere between Earth and Venus.Yes, highly elliptical orbit ...
I wish Tesla didn’t release that 8k. If no one would have expected it and then by end of March the quaterly letter would state « we achieved 2500/w » or close enough. The SP would jump like nothing else. And it would have probably been a definitive catalyst to push bear to cover.
Shock effect would have been great.
Shock effect would have been great.
I’m new to this forum but wanted to post as a share holder. I added to my position this morning at $299.98 I strongly believe in the stock and have been holding for years. My exit price is $2,500
I strongly believe in the stock and have been holding for years. My exit price is $2,500
jhm
Well-Known Member
Let's talk about one goal that Tesla has well delivered on: Revenue Growth.
The basic goal is to grow revenue by 50% every year. How'd they do?
2016 $7.00B
2017 $11.76B
UP 68%!!!
In the shareholder letter, they down played this, saying just 55% organic growth. But I'll happily take a little inorganic growth from SolarCity, given that we shareholders paid for it.
The basic goal is to grow revenue by 50% every year. How'd they do?
2016 $7.00B
2017 $11.76B
UP 68%!!!
In the shareholder letter, they down played this, saying just 55% organic growth. But I'll happily take a little inorganic growth from SolarCity, given that we shareholders paid for it.
jhm
Well-Known Member
If my fifty years have taught my anything it's that if you live long enough, you'll have plenty more humiliating experiences in life.
It seems Elon simply misspoke and had to correct the record.
So good news, we still have a path to 2500/week by quarter end.
no doubt, we all have our own view on this, and nothing wrong with anyone expressing their's here VA.
my two cents on all this
1. I've found over years, Tesla and Elon's actions have been quite in accord with the company's stated mission (to accelerate the advent of sustainable transportation). I have little to no discount that they are working at an exhausting pace toward that mission.
2. I discount some Elon's timelines re product development. Many of us here have for years.
What's more, many of us have proactively and repeatedly advised newcomers to do the same.
3. Far, far, far, far, more than the discounting in item 2, is the discounting I do of the media's portrayal of Elon Musk, Tesla, its products, and TSLA.
This immense discounting of media narratives, includes swimming against the tide of the media flooding us for years with the narrative that Elon is full of promises he will never deliver, and only "true believers", "cult members" would invest their money in Tesla, and, they will come to find out they have been taken for fools for doing so.
Here's an example of that particular narrative which I remember watching in 2012. So glad the message I took from this video was not that Elon never delivers (as it happens Elon delivered on all the promises they show footage of him presenting in the video, including those they framed with the "fraudster caught red-handed music" playing in the background), but, rather, the message that understanding Tesla involves understanding that there is a tremendous effort underway to filter public perception of Tesla, Elon, and TSLA through a funhouse mirror of negativity.
I recommend actively correcting for that fun house mirror presentation of Tesla and Elon, whether you have been exposed to this distortion via traditional media sources, chat boards, blog sites, etc.
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bdy0627
Active Member
Dealing with nasty volatility as the stock ultimately rises?
bdy0627
Active Member
Ahh shoot, you missed it. That was December 2016. Now, maybe you want to hold out for sub $300. It did that today but you had to be fast on the draw to add there. Best of luck. If it gets sub $200, I will be very seriously considering a HELOC to raise cash for more shares.
bdy0627
Active Member
I didn't and still don't, but I'm still hopeful they can get close to that production level by end of Q1. I like the statement they released today. There is still a lack of confidence coming from them about the production numbers they are targeting. They also don't want to be pinned down to have to actually state the current production numbers. They have been conveying that same vagueness and lack of confidence now for over 6 months. It's all targets and exponentials. We all know they are "targeting" 2,500 for end of Q1. What we are all wondering is where they are actually at now and how the ramp is truly progressing number-wise. They won't discuss that. They are being ambiguous for a reason not because they don't actually know, but they don't want to share it. Why not? Because it wouldn't look good right now, and likely wouldn't be good for shareholders if they actually discussed it (let alone option-holders). If it doesn't look good, then be vague until it does. Keep citing targets, the nature of an S ramp, the positives that can be conjured right now. Isn't that what they're doing?
Ulmo
Active Member
What about "I told you so"? Not as powerful? I think it can be! It has been in some times past, even though it was really annoying.
Some more color on the slow ramp of Tesla Solar
David Robinson: Tesla has long road to reach potential of Buffalo plant
David Robinson: Tesla has long road to reach potential of Buffalo plant
stef
Member
Many considered this comment as an admission that they won’t have a realistic chance to hit the target production rate stated in the ER. Hence I completely understand the need to clarify.
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The stock price is partially based on how many cars the market thinks they can deliver in the $7.5K tax credit window.
That number is substantially different if the battery module capacity is doubled.
There is some accounting term for substantial that says they have to make it clear.
Elon’s product timelines are aspirational. He truly believes all his timelines are reasonably possible. There is no con artistry in the man, but he does communicate idiosyncratically. So when we hear any date from Elon, it’s not “the most likely date”, and if we want to think in those terms we need to adjust accordingly.
The press and general public’s misperception of Musk and Tesla is remarkable. It borders on the lunacy of denying climate change. So many people think Musk is all hat and no cattle, despite all of his truly amazing accomplishments staring them in the face.
I don’t believe that people with evil agendas has much to do with this. The problem mostly relates to the average person’s resistance to new ideas. Musk’s biggest shortfall is his inability (or unwillingness) to do what Steve Jobs always did, brilliantly: make the case to the common man.
Musk only makes the case to us nerds. We get it, and we love it, but the rest of the world scratches their collective heads.
Oh well, they will come around eventually, and meanwhile it’s an investment opportunity for us. But Elon could accelerate his mission if he had just a little of Steve Job’s ability to communicate to the masses.
Excellent points but you did leave out a crucial point.Elon really is a nerd who deeply understands the possibilities of technology. Jobs really was a packaging specialist whose largest accomplishments were when he managed to inspire nerds to do things they had not previously done.
Elon is definitively not a PR person. He thinks faster than he talks (most of us do) but he tries to talk as quickly as he's thinking. He also describes possible things as his goals, whether the means to deliver when he wants something exists or not.
The whole world knows that Elon does that.The cynics, including everyone trained in conventional securities analysis, sees him as perpetually spinning nonsense. The nerds among us say, wow, he'll actually get this done, sometime. In the end this will all be wonderful.
I hope Elon does not change. He is the source of the inspiration.
ok. I didn't pay attention to the ER last week and am now reviewing. How on earth did any of you come to the conclusion that this was a good ER?
10k/wk... gone.
they're still working on the factory to get to 2.5k/wk... or wait... 5k/wk
MS/MX will remain flatlined
Spending increases
My guess for 2018 Model 3 deliveries is 75k to 125k. If there really is a 400k reservation backlog... then they won't even fill those until the end of 2019. Which means for 2020, they somehow need to come up with enough money to build a new factory for the Model Y and Semi.
If you reserved your Model 3 today, there's a high probability (if reservation counts are true) that you won't receive your car until 2020. This is actually becoming a joke... people are making fun of this in the real world.
Beyond all this... I'm not getting the warm and fuzzies on M3 demand at this point.
There is active failure occurring. I don't know how they're going to make it out of this year. They are going to need as much money or more injected as they always have. Who is going to fund this? What does Tesla have left to collateralize?
just go look at how "not so great" auto company's stocks trade. now compare those not so great companies with Tesla if it completely fails the M3 this year. By completely fail, I mean, they sell 100k M3s.
They are out of rabbits to pull out of their hats. They need to exceed 2.5k/wk in Q1. Or we're going to be talking about the 'B' word in May.
EDIT: if you think the 'B' word is too harsh... consider they have $3.6B in cash... subtract $1.8B from July's cap raise, $500m from the recent bond sale and some number of Semi deposits... they'd be at $1.5B right now or less without all that. And we'd be talking about the 'B' word right now.
10k/wk... gone.
they're still working on the factory to get to 2.5k/wk... or wait... 5k/wk
MS/MX will remain flatlined
Spending increases
My guess for 2018 Model 3 deliveries is 75k to 125k. If there really is a 400k reservation backlog... then they won't even fill those until the end of 2019. Which means for 2020, they somehow need to come up with enough money to build a new factory for the Model Y and Semi.
If you reserved your Model 3 today, there's a high probability (if reservation counts are true) that you won't receive your car until 2020. This is actually becoming a joke... people are making fun of this in the real world.
Beyond all this... I'm not getting the warm and fuzzies on M3 demand at this point.
There is active failure occurring. I don't know how they're going to make it out of this year. They are going to need as much money or more injected as they always have. Who is going to fund this? What does Tesla have left to collateralize?
just go look at how "not so great" auto company's stocks trade. now compare those not so great companies with Tesla if it completely fails the M3 this year. By completely fail, I mean, they sell 100k M3s.
They are out of rabbits to pull out of their hats. They need to exceed 2.5k/wk in Q1. Or we're going to be talking about the 'B' word in May.
EDIT: if you think the 'B' word is too harsh... consider they have $3.6B in cash... subtract $1.8B from July's cap raise, $500m from the recent bond sale and some number of Semi deposits... they'd be at $1.5B right now or less without all that. And we'd be talking about the 'B' word right now.
Reciprocity
Active Member
If given a choice, I'm riding in the model 3 over the bolt. Good thing gm has so much money because each autonomous bolt costs $100k+ when you factor in lidar and computing power in the truck and GM already loses money on each. Tesla is going to make money on each car because they are going to sell them to owners and not own every vehicle. For ride sharing efficiency, range is King as the bolts with all that extra crap in the trunk will have half the range and not be able to carry any customers luggage. For 3 hours of driving reach bolt will need to charger for 3 hours or more because they don't have a fast charging network. Model 3 will be able to run for 8 hours and charge in 1 hour. Pretty sure people in general think more highly of Tesla then gm, especially where ride-sharing dominates in large City centers. But ok, Lyft will survive but at a much smaller size, same as Uber, who doesn't have an ev solution.
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