General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

no doubt, we all have our own view on this, and nothing wrong with anyone expressing their's here VA.

my two cents on all this

1. I've found over years, Tesla and Elon's actions have been quite in accord with the company's stated mission (to accelerate the advent of sustainable transportation). I have little to no discount that they are working at an exhausting pace toward that mission.

2. I discount some Elon's timelines re product development. Many of us here have for years.

What's more, many of us have proactively and repeatedly advised newcomers to do the same.

3. Far, far, far, far, more than the discounting in item 2, is the discounting I do of the media's portrayal of Elon Musk, Tesla, its products, and TSLA.

This immense discounting of media narratives, includes swimming against the tide of the media flooding us for years with the narrative that Elon is full of promises he will never deliver, and only "true believers", "cult members" would invest their money in Tesla, and, they will come to find out they have been taken for fools for doing so.

Here's an example of that particular narrative which I remember watching in 2012. So glad the message I took from this video was not that Elon never delivers (as it happens Elon delivered on all the promises they show footage of him presenting in the video, including those they framed with the "fraudster caught red-handed music" playing in the background), but, rather, the message that understanding Tesla involves understanding that there is a tremendous effort underway to filter public perception of Tesla, Elon, and TSLA through a funhouse mirror of negativity.

I recommend actively correcting for that fun house mirror presentation of Tesla and Elon, whether you have been exposed to this distortion via traditional media sources, chat boards, blog sites, etc.

You have to love the Internet where what you’ve said gets to live on forever. I remember that video and that disingenuous bag of wind. Props to him though, has stuck to his guns all these years later telling the same story. What an admirable trait persistence. The same trait Elon possesses in spades.

 

[Krugerrand]

Elon’s product timelines are aspirational. He truly believes all his timelines are reasonably possible. There is no con artistry in the man, but he does communicate idiosyncratically. So when we hear any date from Elon, it’s not “the most likely date”, and if we want to think in those terms we need to adjust accordingly.

The press and general public’s misperception of Musk and Tesla is remarkable. It borders on the lunacy of denying climate change. So many people think Musk is all hat and no cattle, despite all of his truly amazing accomplishments staring them in the face.

I don’t believe that people with evil agendas has much to do with this. The problem mostly relates to the average person’s resistance to new ideas. Musk’s biggest shortfall is his inability (or unwillingness) to do what Steve Jobs always did, brilliantly: make the case to the common man.

Musk only makes the case to us nerds. We get it, and we love it, but the rest of the world scratches their collective heads.

Oh well, they will come around eventually, and meanwhile it’s an investment opportunity for us. But Elon could accelerate his mission if he had just a little of Steve Job’s ability to communicate to the masses.

Wait. What? How many Twitter followers does he have? How many people here with kids have remarked about their children and their children’s friends knowing about Tesla/being excited about Tesla? What’s the age range of posters on this forum?

FTR, I’m the common man as are almost every person I know. None of us nerds. I don’t know a million people or anything but I do have more than 2 FB friends.

Here’s the deal, Elon doesn’t have to appeal to everyone to accomplish the mission. Those that need to get him now, do. Those that don’t will get him later, or not and they’ll just own an EV at some point because that’ll have become the obvious choice.

And yeah, evil, money hunger, vindictive people most certainly are playing a role here. If you’d prefer to soften that with the word ignorant have at it, but that doesn’t change the motive of the likes of Cory J, Broder, Mark S., Bob L, and the rest if the gang.

I will agree that a large portion of the human population is resistant to change preferring the comfort of what they THINK they know.

 

[Reciprocity]

Some more color on the slow ramp of Tesla Solar
David Robinson: Tesla has long road to reach potential of Buffalo plant

People are sleeping on this solar roof. Not on this forum but outside of Tesla. Assuming 20,000 reservation and a year to work through that it's roughly $1B in revs for 100MW of solar and powerwalls. That same amount of solar sold by sunrun would be $300M. For the same 20,000 sales, Tesla will have over 3x the revs and profits. But also, less selling costs because Tesla got those 20,000 reservations for next to nothing. Future sales will come from existing stores so it will be hyper efficient. There is a big push here in Chicago with solar + pw going into every store. Solar City was never in Chicago.

Solar roof is not for everyone, but for those it fits, there is 0 competition. This is not just taking market share, this is inventing new markets and owning them.

 

[JRP3]

I don’t believe that people with evil agendas has much to do with this.

Disagree. There has been an active campaign from certain sectors to create a narrative of lies about all things Tesla from the beginning which has influenced many people who didn't take the time to dig deeper.

 

[30seconds]

Next two weeks could be interesting. Seems to me that model 3 production has slowed. From what I remember there was similar slow downs in the early S and X ramps followed by a resumption at a higher level.

I’d like to get more comfort that production is at least 1k/ week and climbing

 

[AudubonB]

Specifically for those in the Investors' Forums....

...I've changed my avatar.....

 

[GoTslaGo]

Wait. What? How many Twitter followers does he have? How many people here with kids have remarked about their children and their children’s friends knowing about Tesla/being excited about Tesla? What’s the age range of posters on this forum?

Ain’t that the truth.

I have a friend who told me that he had always wanted some fancy Porsche 911 ever since he was young. I talked to him about getting a P100DL, but he insisted on fulfilling his dream of getting a specific Porsche [some specific model, he’s had other Porsche’s in the past]. He ordered it, shipped it from Germany and took delivery.

Bumped into him the other day, and he actually seemed kind of dejected about it. Kept complaining about how it doesn’t go from 0-60 fast enough (he gave up his Volt lease for the Porsche).

So that early enthusiasm (well founded may I add) means a lot for the future.

 

[Lessmog]

Ain’t that the truth.

I have a friend who told me that he had always wanted some fancy Porsche 911 ever since he was young. I talked to him about getting a P100DL, but he insisted on fulfilling his dream of getting a specific Porsche [some specific model, he’s had other Porsche’s in the past]. He ordered it, shipped it from Germany and took delivery.

Bumped into him the other day, and he actually seemed kind of dejected about it. Kept complaining about how it doesn’t go from 0-60 fast enough (he gave up his Volt lease for the Porsche).

So that early enthusiasm (well founded may I add) means a lot for the future.

Agree with your final para, to a high degree.

Did your friend try to blame you for his bad judgment, or own it? Just curious.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Agree with your final para, to a high degree.

Did your friend try to blame you for his bad judgment, or own it? Just curious.

He owned it.

He brought it up—I was surprised, since it is a high end Porsche. He understands the beauty of the 0-60 on EVs, having been driving a Volt for the last several years (ok 0-30 on the Volt).

But as he pointed out when I tried to sway him to a P100DL... he’s always wanted that Porsche for as long as he could remember. Basically it’s on his bucket list.

 

[Lessmog]

He owned it.

He brought it up—I was surprised, since it is a high end Porsche. He understands the beauty of the 0-60 on EVs, having been driving a Volt for the last several years (ok 0-30 on the Volt).

But as he pointed out when I tried to sway him to a P100DL... he’s always wanted that Porsche for as long as he could remember. Basically it’s on his bucket list.

In that case, more power to him (so to speak)

 

[SteveG3]

[snip]

The press and general public’s misperception of Musk and Tesla is remarkable. It borders on the lunacy of denying climate change. So many people think Musk is all hat and no cattle, despite all of his truly amazing accomplishments staring them in the face.

I don’t believe that people with evil agendas has much to do with this. [snip]

Just wanted to clarify something here.

I never mentioned the concept of ‘evil’ and I don’t think that has anything to do with this either.

Your comparison to the “remarkable”, “bordering on lunacy,” misperception of Musk and Tesla with that of the nature of the misperception of denying climate change is quite the clue as to what I think is going on. While I don’t imagine ‘evil’ in any of this, humans have been known to react to things (including kicking and screaming in what they conceive of as ‘defense of their turf’), and concentrated material resources and concentrated influence have been known to tremendously magnify the impact of those reactions, very often with the added magnifier of the tool of mass media.

 

[ktrivedi70]

So I'm gonna share a little fantasy of mine with you folks.

So there I was, by the pool...... No wait, not that one. That's none of your business.

This one. Let's pretend it's 2030. I would propose that we all regroup in here and start a little club. We pool our resources and (financially led by TT007, strategically and tactically led by Curt Renz and PapaFox) strive to do to others what has been done to us. We pick a company, maybe GM, Exon Mobile, Koch, whatever. One of Those Guys. We show them how it feels to get a daily dose of the mandatory morning dip. We whack their moles whenever they crawl out of their holes. We show them what a slow decent into close really looks like(1). We shower them with lies, half-truths, and FUD every opportunity we get. We do this with impunity from the safety of our Space Lair, free from Earth laws and placed into orbit for our use by our good friends at SpaceX. And when they ask "Why oh why do you do this to us" we reply, "Do you like apples?"(2)

appendix
1. See Papafox's daily posts for explanation of terms.
2. Google "apples, Good Will Hunting"

Now, back to the other fantasy. Giselle, disgusted with Tom Brady's attempt to catch a football, approaches....

smiles,,,sorry, felt like everyone was getting way to stressed out and serious. And I'm feeling sort of punchy today.

 

[Sancho]

While I don’t imagine ‘evil’ in any of this, humans have been known to ‘defense of their turf’), and concentrated material resources and concentrated influence have been known to tremendously magnify the impact of those reactions, very often with the added magnifier of the tool of mass media.

OK, you didn’t use the word “evil”, but I don’t agree with your formulation of “concentrated resources and influence” as being a substantial factor in the echo chamber of “Musk is a huckster.”

I’m as angry as the rest of us here about people with an agenda adverse to Tesla consciously spreading FUD. But in our disgust we make the mistake of overemphasizing their influence. I suspect we also overemphasize the influence of shorts on the TSLA stock price.

It kills me that one of my favorite newspapers, the New York Times, has never written a fair article about Tesla, despite the fact that Musk and Tesla are leaders for things the NYT deeply cares about (better environment, reduced use of foreign oil, etc).

Is the NYT part of some dark cabal? Are they blinded by FUDsters? No and no. The reason for their negativity is simpler than that: their editors and writers are in the echo chamber. When they go to their bars and their dinner parties, everybody rolls their eyes at the TSLA stock price.

Sometime in the next few years the echo chamber will flip, when every single person in those bars either owns a Tesla or is seriously contemplating buying one.

Until then, buy the dips.

 

[SteveG3]

OK, you didn’t use the word “evil”, but I don’t agree with your formulation of “concentrated resources and influence” as being a substantial factor in the echo chamber of “Musk is a huckster.”

I’m as angry as the rest of us here about people with an agenda adverse to Tesla consciously spreading FUD. But in our disgust we make the mistake of overemphasizing their influence. I suspect we also overemphasize the influence of shorts on the TSLA strike price.

It kills me that one of my favorite newspapers, the New York Times, has never written a fair article about Tesla, despite the fact that Musk and Tesla are leaders for things the NYT deeply cares about (better environment, reduced use of foreign oil, etc).

Is the NYT part of some dark cabal? Are they blinded by FUDsters? No and no. The reason for their negativity is simpler than that: their editors and writers are in the echo chamber. When they go to their bars and their dinner parties, everybody rolls their eyes at the TSLA stock price.

Sometime in the next few years the echo chamber will flip, when every single person in those bars either owns a Tesla or is seriously contemplating buying one.

Until then, buy the dips.

didn't mention a "dark cabal" either.

I doubt anyone wants to see more details on this thread, but, if you want, I'm happy to PM you more clarification of what I meant.

 

[sub]

Now, back to the other fantasy. Giselle, disgusted with Tom Brady's attempt to catch a football, approaches....

I pondered aloud while watching the Super Bowl with my wife and friend, does Tom call her "Gis" for short? True story.

Sorry, it's a weekend.

 

[rayng]

Ain’t that the truth.

I have a friend who told me that he had always wanted some fancy Porsche 911 ever since he was young. I talked to him about getting a P100DL, but he insisted on fulfilling his dream of getting a specific Porsche [some specific model, he’s had other Porsche’s in the past]. He ordered it, shipped it from Germany and took delivery.

Bumped into him the other day, and he actually seemed kind of dejected about it. Kept complaining about how it doesn’t go from 0-60 fast enough (he gave up his Volt lease for the Porsche).

So that early enthusiasm (well founded may I add) means a lot for the future.

As a Porsche 911 owner, your friend probably could have benefited from a test drive or a turo rental prior to purchase. 911s are fast if you get the turbo s or gt2 variant. My S and wife's X are American hotrods. European sports cars are too fast for most crowded public streets and freeways to be enjoyed to their full potential. I'd argue that he'd look into Cup cars or full race cars to indulge his need for speed safely.

 

[JRP3]

OK, you didn’t use the word “evil”, but I don’t agree with your formulation of “concentrated resources and influence” as being a substantial factor in the echo chamber of “Musk is a huckster.”

You must not be paying attention. From the beginning there have been organized and concentrated forces funded by a number of established industries spreading FUD at every turn. These are industries threatened by the complete paradigm shift which Elon and his companies represent. Additionally since Elon's companies never spend advertising dollars on conventional media there are many in the media itself who are more beholden to their advertiser dollars than the truth.

 

[CatB]

“Evil” may be too simplistic.
Some “fear aggression” from not wanting to recognize that Tesla is messing with their rice bowls, some “climate denier backlash” that wants to see Tesla’s mission fail because they can’t accept its premise, and some “old-fashioned greed” (this is where I think NYT falls) because they feel entitled to advertising revenue in exchange for positive press, and therefore resent having to report good news without getting compensated for it.

 

[Ulmo]

Gm does not have time. And frankly, they hadn't shown they have a plan or anything else productive. What they do have is the bolt at a peak of 30k units a year at $10k/unit loss while outsourcing everything to LG. GM isn't even in Tesla's cross hairs yet. Wait till the pickup comes out with nearly infinite torque for towing. People like badarse trucks and if the BAMF semi is any indication, then GM, Ford and Dodge are in trouble.

I would agree, but we've already heard that the Board is reigning in Musk on his pickup ambitions, and it's going to be another Toy/S10 knockoff based upon small architecture and wimpiness.

 

[Tenable]

Well, now that my Model 3 “D” has been pushed to late 2018, I have a nice down payment sitting collecting dust. $310 is looking seriously attractive but I’m wanting to hold for sub $200. Any educated guess out there when we hit bottom?

Given what a terrible CEO Elon is, we should get there in short order. Might I suggest you don't wait for $200 bit short tsla immediately. That way when we arrive at $200 you'll be able to buy oh so much more. Good luck and gods speed