FOR WANT; Model S P85 $50k

[CalDreamin]

I don't know about the incentives in Norway, but the U.S. federal tax credit for the purchase of new Tesla electric vehicles will not phase out in 2015.
Here's what the IRS says:

The new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period.

Tesla will not have sold a total of 200,000 EVs in the U.S. until sometime in 2016 at the earliest, and probably not until 2017 or 2018. At that point this begins the 1-year phase out period of the credit.

 

[Electroman]

I am also in the 40k+ miles club, the lowest offer I woul take is around 85k. If it has 100k I might accept 80k.

Did I hear you right? At 40k miles you would take $85k, and then if you drive another additional 60k miles your depreciation will be only an additional $5k ?

You have to be kidding...

 

[FreeOfPge]

Usually responding to a suspected troll is the best policy, however, since this is a direct response to my post I will.

First, my question, "Any bets on which one I get first?" no longer applies; we caved in and purchased a used MS P85 w/7,500 miles for $94k, however the question still lingers. Will decent MS P85s be selling for $50k before or after M3 is available? My question was not "what will cause MS P85 to depreciate rapidly?".

Second, you have way too much incorrect information to fully address in detail so please see the short answers in red:

Not that far fetched. By early 2015, the ModelS fever will have subsided and prices of used ModelS's will come to realistic levels

Here are some things to consider that will lower the demand for Model S's
- Tax benefits in Norway will expire, which is currently it's biggest market. Not True
- Tax benefits in USA will expire later in 2015. Proof?
- Model X will divert attention, and so will Model 3 (people will smaller budgets will wait, rather than stretch). Model X a little, M3 will not be available until 2017 and the question is, once on the market, will it cost more to purchase a fully loaded M3 (est. $50k) than a used MS P85?
- Other manufacturers with their PHEV's will offer viable alternatives for literally half the price. Doubtful
- Wildcard - China demand may compensate for all this. But China has their own EV manufacturers who may come up with something far cheaper for the chinese customer. China loves luxury vehicles, KNDI has a great alternative, cheap EV for the city, but it will in no way affect the luxury market.
Finally, people will begin to come to their senses, and the false cloud of "Model S is a perfect car" will disperse. We are human, this is not in our DNA...
Here are some things about Model S that are not perfect,

- Repairs and body work are extremely expensive. Insurance companies are only beginning to appreciate the risk there, and this will drive up the insurance costs of Model S also (already happening).... btw Tesla Roadster insurance was a joke for the same reason. Insurance rates for MS have dropped, not gone up, in fact Farmer's now offers a 10% EV discount.
- It is a very big car and very wide. You will get dings, and every now and then you will back into a pole. So you will need that expensive insurance with low deductible (or pay out of pocket). Also, in case of repairs, the car sits waiting for parts a lot longer than since only Tesla can manufacture the replacement panels. So factor in rental costs also. To silly for a serious response.
- The interiors in a $50K Acura are far superior than a Model S. Seriously, next time you sit in a Model S, photoshop the LCD screen out, and what you have are interiors comparable to a Honda Civic. You have not sat in my son's 1998 Civic...
- The car, esp. the 21" wheels, eats tires. This depends on how you drive of course. Obviously true, is there a car with 21" wheels that doesn't?
- The car requires fewer trips to the dealer (no oil changes), but the trips are expensive, unless you buy an expensive maint. plan. ahead of time. 8 year warranty
- And the car has reliability issues, like any other car. What a shock, it's just a car. Not really
- Plus, there are some imperfections, the seats aren't the best, the sunshade is tiny (true), and getting in and out of the car, you bump around the edges. Old farts have money to afford Model S's, and Old farts prefer the egress of a Mercedes S class (or similar). Also Old farts don't like digital LCD screens. What you are seeing now, is the initial hype/newness. It will subside. Mercedes S class cars are being sold and replaced with MS at break neck speeds.

Plus, a lot of those who spend $100K on a new car, will have another $100K in 2-3 years to spend on the next toy. Like a Model X?
So early 2015, you will see 2012 Model S's with 20-30K miles for around 50K. LOL, I will buy a second MS if this happens!!!

Early 2015 is just a few months away

 

[green1]

Did I hear you right? At 40k miles you would take $85k, and then if you drive another additional 60k miles your depreciation will be only an additional $5k ?

You have to be kidding...

The used market is full of people selling for irrational prices. The trick is always to find irrationality in your favour, those who price too high simply won't sell (of course often that's what they really want anyway)

 

[bonnie]

LOL, I will buy a second MS if this happens!!!

Bravo!

I've said this before & will repeat again. I bought a Roadster in Feb 2011 for far more than a fully loaded Model S P85+would cost new today. And the Roadster is so crude in comparison. But if I'd waited, I would have gone that many days without driving a Tesla. My money was more than well-spent. I'd do it again. So good for you.

 

[green1]

First, my question, "Any bets on which one I get first?" no longer applies; we caved in and purchased a used MS P85 w/7,500 miles for $94k, however the question still lingers. Will decent MS P85s be selling for $50k before or after M3 is available? My question was not "what will cause MS P85 to depreciate rapidly?"

This really is the interesting question, and I posted another thread on this subject a while back "new Model E or 5 year old Model S" (or something along those lines) discussing my internal struggle with this same question. I suspect $50k used Model S P85s will be available at about the same time as the Model 3, and was debating which one to choose.

I've pretty much come to the answer now though, Unless the Model 3 is truly a superior vehicle to the Model S (possible, but unlikely) I'll be choosing the used MS. Though a fully loaded P85 new from Tesla costs about $144K (CAD), there are used ones appearing now for under $100K, including ones with all the newest features. In fact I saw a couple listed today under $90k. another couple years and 50K is not unreasonable (though I'm thinking $60-70 might be more likely, but it's honestly just a guess)

Current plan is another year and a half to two years for me to buy a Tesla, so I'll be keeping my eyes peeled (unless someone has an S85 or P85, Red with tan, tech, Panno, air suspension, fog lights, cold weather, dual chargers that they want to sell me for my currently saved up $40k....)

 

[Electroman]

I think this is a great question to ponder. Given that most can lay their hands on a Gen 3 only by mid 2018, which is 4 years away there will be plenty of S85 available for less than $50k and S60 for less than $40k.

The real question is, by then will the S85 range be above or below Gen3 ? That will ultimately decide the price

 

[green1]

The real question is, by then will the S85 range be above or below Gen3 ? That will ultimately decide the price

There are a couple factors at play here, the MS isn't likely to go anywhere, so a 2018 MS is pretty much guaranteed to be "above" the Model 3 in just about every way. Now will a 2015 MS be above a 2018 Model 3? that's a big question.

But the other factor is to define "above" It seems quite likely that the MS will still have more cargo capacity, and more passenger space, Likely a larger touch screen, and possibly some other goodies. But it's also entirely possible that a high end Model 3, weighing less than a Model S, will have better acceleration, and as a newer vehicle may have some increased tech available that isn't on the older model S.

For me, barring some absolute "must have" on the Model 3 that isn't available on a Model S of similar price, I would choose the Model S just because I like big cars, I'm coming from one of the most spacious mini-vans out there and I don't want to sacrifice too much of the practicality that this brings. But that's me. Many people have expressed the opposite where they would prefer a smaller vehicle, so it's very personal.

 

[joer00]

Did I hear you right? At 40k miles you would take $85k, and then if you drive another additional 60k miles your depreciation will be only an additional $5k ?

You have to be kidding...

I knew that my statement was provocative. But I wrote it to make a point that I believer normal used car prices do not apply for the MS. A MS is like a plane. You can buy a 40 year old plane for an almost like new price IF it has new engines, avionics etc. Tesla offered to pre buy a 85 KW replacement battery for 12k. The drive train is supposed to hold 1 million miles and I do not see any reason why this might not be 2 million miles. The software is always the newest over the air.

We already know that the battery still has about 90 % at 100k miles. If we assume it has 80 % at 200k and will be replaced then, at the battery costs of 12k, this translates into 0.06 $ per mile or 3600 $ for my next 60k miles driven. So my 5k less is a bargain

Of course all this calculations are useless because the only thing what drives prices is supply and demand. BUT used car buyers do make some kind of cost of ownership calculation and value for the money. So what will happen in my opinion is either extreme high used car prices for the MS, or a complete crash of used car prices for other luxury brands ! We have now an 8 year unlimited batter AND drive train warranty. The MS is the ONLY used luxury car which a "not so rich" buyer can afford. The "super cheap" used 600 Mercedes I bought years ago in Germany made me poor. The cheapest service center visit was 1200 $, the most expensive 7000 $ and this with 40k miles ion the car !!!

So any used car buyer is better off buying a MS for 80k than a Mercedes, BMW etc for 50k !

And LAST BUT NOT LEAST, we all know in 8 years when the warranty expires, you wont buy a 85k battery, it ill be much more for much less the money. Tell me any ICE car where you can upgrade the major car parts !

 

[Electroman]

There are a couple factors at play here, the MS isn't likely to go anywhere, so a 2018 MS is pretty much guaranteed to be "above" the Model 3 in just about every way. Now will a 2015 MS be above a 2018 Model 3? that's a big question.

Not sure why you are talking about a 2018 MS. We are talking about a 4 or 5 year old S85 that has around 80k miles in it, in 2018. The question is will that pre owned MS be competitive with a new Gen3 at that time ?

 

[Electroman]

I knew that my statement was provocative. But I wrote it to make a point that I believer normal used car prices do not apply for the MS.

So any used car buyer is better off buying a MS for 80k than a Mercedes, BMW etc for 50k !
!

You are absolutely right that the typical calculations we do for pricing an used ICE is not valid for an EV. In any EV range is king. The mileage on the odo is a distant second.

Precisely the reason why Leafs have plummeted in resale value, and the same reason why MS is supposed to hold its value (hopefully we don't know that yet )

All I am saying is your $5k deprecation over 60k miles is highly unrealistic

 

[green1]

Not sure why you are talking about a 2018 MS. We are talking about a 4 or 5 year old S85 that has around 80k miles in it, in 2018. The question is will that pre owned MS be competitive with a new Gen3 at that time ?

I thought i was fairly clear on that point, even in the part you quoted. We're talking a used MS, not necessarily a 4 or 5 year old one, just one that fits in with the high end Model 3 market. so what will next year's model S look like? (it will be 3 years old by 2018, and honestly, I think anyone who expects the model 3 to be available in 2018 is deluding themselves based on Tesla's track record with timelines)
Point is, we know a NEW model S will be better than a NEW model 3, and therefore a USED MS that's the same age as a USED Model 3 will be better as well. What we can't say is where the crossover point is, 1 year? 2 years? 5? 10?
Also, as I pointed out, we don't know what "better" really means anyway, there will be different things important to different people.

@joer00 Do you think a 2010 MS, fully loaded, is worth less than a 2014 MS, also fully loaded? (keep in mind that "fully loaded" now includes several features that did not exist before, such as parking sensors, folding mirrors, etc)
Now extrapolate that further, imagine the 2016 MS that has full self-driving capability (Elon has already promissed on-ramp to off-ramp by end of this year, so the hardware will likely be there, the rest is free software updats), is that worth more than the 2014 MS that doesn't have that hardware?

Now justify why your used car shouldn't depreciate when it's missing many of the features of the new car, has less of that warranty remaining, has more wear and tear on the seats, paint, dash, etc.

As you pointed out, supply and demand drives prices, when there's supply of better cars than yours out there, people won't demand yours over the better ones unless your price is also better. It's obvious you don't want to sell right now, so you are over-valuing your car, wait until it's time for you to want an upgrade, and then see what you think.

 

[FreeOfPge]

Bravo!

I've said this before & will repeat again. I bought a Roadster in Feb 2011 for far more than a fully loaded Model S P85+would cost new today. And the Roadster is so crude in comparison. But if I'd waited, I would have gone that many days without driving a Tesla. My money was more than well-spent. I'd do it again. So good for you.

bonnie - Well stated!

 

[MassModel3]

This really is the interesting question, and I posted another thread on this subject a while back "new Model E or 5 year old Model S" (or something along those lines) discussing my internal struggle with this same question. I suspect $50k used Model S P85s will be available at about the same time as the Model 3, and was debating which one to choose.

This is pretty much where I am with it. I'll have my current ICE car paid off in 4 months, then I'm likely to buy a used MS 60 just to hold me over. I'm shooting to get a fully loaded M3 when they're available. But then, if I can get a nicely equipped used MS 85 for the same price as a loaded M3, who knows...? As so many have stated in this thread, it comes down to what's available on the used MS 85 vs. what's available on the new M3. In the world of technology, a lot can change in 3 years.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Not that far fetched. By early 2015, the ModelS fever will have subsided and prices of used ModelS's will come to realistic levels.

Here are some things to consider that will lower the demand for Model S's
- Tax benefits in Norway will expire, which is currently it's biggest market.

The tax benefits in Norway will be gradually phased out over a 5-10 year period, starting sometime between 2016 and 2020, you mean. There are no indications that the incentives will be touched in 2015.

 

[SmartElectric]

The residual value of a Model S on the used market is unlikely to follow the path of it's chief competitors in the luxury performance category.

Non-Tesla EV owners like me are growing at a clip of 60,000+ per year in North America.
A goodly number of these owners will be at the end of a lease in 3 years time.
I predict the competition for purchasing a used Tesla will be intense in 3 years time.

As for me, I've bought the majority of my cars 3-4 years used.
I don't see why my next purchase (almost certainly a Tesla) would be any different.

Then again, I love my Smart ED, and bought it outright as I have every intention of driving it for 10 more years. It's a hoot!

 

[Chickenlittle]

This is pretty much where I am with it. I'll have my current ICE car paid off in 4 months, then I'm likely to buy a used MS 60 just to hold me over. I'm shooting to get a fully loaded M3 when they're available. But then, if I can get a nicely equipped used MS 85 for the same price as a loaded M3, who knows...? As so many have stated in this thread, it comes down to what's available on the used MS 85 vs. what's available on the new M3. In the world of technology, a lot can change in 3 years.

A thoughtful strategy. I would consider getting the 85 though. May cost, used less than 5k more but it will be easier to sell in future and keep that battery premium.

 

[FluxCap]

First time poster stuffs.

Wow.

 

[Canuck]

Bravo!

I've said this before & will repeat again. I bought a Roadster in Feb 2011 for far more than a fully loaded Model S P85+would cost new today. And the Roadster is so crude in comparison. But if I'd waited, I would have gone that many days without driving a Tesla. My money was more than well-spent. I'd do it again. So good for you.

But the better question is: Would you have bought TSLA instead if you could do it again?

 

[bonnie]

But the better question is: Would you have bought TSLA instead if you could do it again?

I did both. And I still own both.