Factory is shut for the week of July 27 for retooling for model X?

[vandacca]

The part where he states that factory is shut down this week is not obvious...

I doubt that you missed this part of his post, so it seems that the fact that you are not dismissing this statement might be indicate that the factory is indeed curently shut down...

..Or I might be trying to read too much between the lines here?? (Which is shocking for any thread dealing with the Model X production prognostication)

There are many people on this forum that have posted that Tesla employees told them that the factory tours will not be available this week and next week, so that corroborates the OP story. Nothing really new here. And I agree with Bonnie that this is obvious. Furthermore, "high gear" is a very subjective term and does not (in any way) indicate the Model-X production level. It can simply mean that they will finally be building some Model-X vehicles.

Nothing more to see here...move along...

 

[vgrinshpun]

Why would they shut the factory down when they have two lines to build cars on (original line and the new S/X line)?

The two lines are body in white production lines. The general assembly line on which interiors, drivetrain, battery, etc. are put into the painted body is a single line common to both MS and MX

 

[AB4EJ]

Why would they shut the factory down when they have two lines to build cars on (original line and the new S/X line)?

Even when you have multiple lines, a short factory shutdown when starting production on a new model is the usual practice (at least, that's what we always have done at Mercedes) for several reasons -

- the production control computer system has to be activated to route the new vehicles; you want it down for this so you don't screw up current production
- there are often shared resources between multiple lines, such as portions of the paint shop, buffers, etc.
- you have to move a bunch of inventory of parts around to get everything in the right places for the new model
- some of the same people are involved in both lines during startup and can only split their time so many ways
- a final training blitz for new team members

Note also - again, assuming Tesla is doing things similar to Mercedes assembly, which they often do, after this plant shutdown they can be expected to start producing customer-ready Model X cars (i.e., mid-August), which usually starts 4 to 6 weeks before actual deliveries. The reason for the 4 to 6 weeks is because the new cars have to have a much closer look from Quality Control, and can be expected to spend more time in repair until all production issues are solved.

 

[NigelM]

It's amazing how there's always some person who comes in with a new account, creates a thread with a click-bait title and a rumor, and then gets everyone excited. It's even better if the rumor (not fact) is based on some existing fact such as factory tours, or summer shutdown etc. Oh and don't forget that the OP already confirmed he doesn't work for Tesla but lives in the Bay Area so heard from friends or someone else, in other words the info is second or third hand already.

 

[Electricfan]

Wow, I wonder if there's been another thread that attracted posters with a higher booger count avg...

 

[hockeythug]

Even when you have multiple lines, a short factory shutdown when starting production on a new model is the usual practice (at least, that's what we always have done at Mercedes) for several reasons -

- the production control computer system has to be activated to route the new vehicles; you want it down for this so you don't screw up current production
- there are often shared resources between multiple lines, such as portions of the paint shop, buffers, etc.
- you have to move a bunch of inventory of parts around to get everything in the right places for the new model
- some of the same people are involved in both lines during startup and can only split their time so many ways
- a final training blitz for new team members

Note also - again, assuming Tesla is doing things similar to Mercedes assembly, which they often do, after this plant shutdown they can be expected to start producing customer-ready Model X cars (i.e., mid-August), which usually starts 4 to 6 weeks before actual deliveries. The reason for the 4 to 6 weeks is because the new cars have to have a much closer look from Quality Control, and can be expected to spend more time in repair until all production issues are solved.

Thank you for your thoughts on this. Sounds like you know what you are talking about with your Mercedes factory experience.

 

[trialcritic]

Considering how large that factory is and that it is handling the Model S too, there is no need to shut it down. If likely, they must be updating the Model X section of the plant.

 

[NigelM]

Considering how large that factory is and that it is handling the Model S too, there is no need to shut it down. If likely, they must be updating the Model X section of the plant.

Much of the building still remains empty and there isn't a "Model X section". As for shutdown, factory production shutdowns in summer are common in many companies to facilitate employee vacation time. Also worth reading AB4EJ's post above.

 

[A.G.]

In one of the Facebook groups for Tesla an employee confirmed that they have this week off as they are re-tooling. I do not know why people think that this is such a crazy thought.

 

[jbcarioca]

Considering how large that factory is and that it is handling the Model S too, there is no need to shut it down. If likely, they must be updating the Model X section of the plant.

AB4EJ mentioned some issues, relevant because the new Tesla paint line is to serve both production lines IIRC, and the battery pack line serves both also. Further the new line will produce both X and S even though IIRC it will start with X only. There are also a boatload of modifications being made now to the original line. Thus is seems entirely logical that they shut down all production form a week to do all those changeovers. Even physically moving a large number of robots to complete installation would seriously disrupts production, not to mention the negative impact on production of all those workers gawking at the new gear. Anyway there is a huge amount of work for everyone to do, and lots of training to be done for the new model and line changes.

 

[bonnie]

In one of the Facebook groups for Tesla an employee confirmed that they have this week off as they are getting ready for the next production line. I do not know why people think that this is such a crazy thought.

I don't think people think it is such a crazy thought. I think the point people are making is this is not unexpected. Tesla should be preparing for production. We've had info that indicates a shutdown now. Business as usual.

All this is great because it confirms that the Model X IS on track for deliveries soon-ish.

 

[Bgarret]

I don't think people think it is such a crazy thought. I think the point people are making is this is not unexpected. Tesla should be preparing for production. We've had info that indicates a shutdown now. Business as usual.

All this is great because it confirms that the Model X IS on track for deliveries soon-ish.

if you really want to have some fun, Bonnie should stop posting for a bit and see how long it takes before the, "Why isn't Bonnie Posting Thread" pops up with all sorts of NDA, Configurator and "Bonnie can't post because she is out driving her X in Area 51, the only place Founders and early Sigs are allowed to drive the "actual" cars" conspiracy theories. Bonnie not posting for the balance of a day has already been referenced by the Investors thread as a harbinger of some pending announcement.

Go Princess Bonnie, have some fun and let them eat cake!

- - - Updated - - -

It's amazing how there's always some person who comes in with a new account, creates a thread with a click-bait title and a rumor, and then gets everyone excited. It's even better if the rumor (not fact) is based on some existing fact such as factory tours, or summer shutdown etc. Oh and don't forget that the OP already confirmed he doesn't work for Tesla but lives in the Bay Area so heard from friends or someone else, in other words the info is second or third hand already.

See the Bonnie thread proposal

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I don't think people think it is such a crazy thought. I think the point people are making is this is not unexpected. Tesla should be preparing for production. We've had info that indicates a shutdown now. Business as usual.

All this is great because it confirms that the Model X IS on track for deliveries soon-ish.

Well, if it's a Model X-related shutdown, it suggests that they're really working on changes to the production line for the Model X.
Doesn't say that actual production is imminent, would just imply that they're far enough along that they think it's worth making a bunch of necessary changes.
It could just be that they're just making changes right now that also impact S production, so that they can test those parts of the process with dummy Xs.
Could also be nothing to do with the X, but instead be some changes to handle the changes for the P90DL.

Or in full conspiracy mode, it could be that the Model X has a further delay, which has a significant impact on coming cashflow, and they want to shut down the factory for a week to save a week of salaries, while also giving the impression that the X is close, encouraging people to put down X deposits.

 

[mikes_fsd]

I love these threads! Just saying...

 

[NigelM]

See the Bonnie thread proposal

Ha, that already started in the "What will Elon say..." thread. Bonnie is smart enough to be able to post here without giving secrets away.

 

[bonnie]

Ha, that already started in the "What will Elon say..." thread. Bonnie is smart enough to be able to post here without giving secrets away.

I would never break an NDA, not even with clever word games.

 

[trils0n]

Seems like the normal 1-2 week summer factory shutdown would be a great time to finish up Line 2 and prep for Model X. Hope it all goes smoothly.

 

[action7981]

DECODED

i WOULD never BREAK an NDA, not EVEN (numbered) with CLEVER word GAMES.

Only believe every other word that Bonnie types.

 

[stevej119]

I would never break an NDA, not even with clever word games.

I see five pages of posts analyzing that sentence in our immediate future.

 

[ohmman]

It's good news either way, as has been mentioned. It's likely either:

1. Typical shutdown for some retooling, rearranging, etc. Nice for the floor to get a break from the constant barrage of tours coming through.
2. Model X-related line startup. Nice for those of us with X reservations.

Thankfully this time we can be sure it's not:

3. Need to secretly shut the factory down due to cash flow issues a la early Roadster days.