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Elon: FSD Beta tweets
- Thread starter Terminator857
- Start date
Yeah, we don't really know how many more people are using FSD with free trial versus how much more people are using 12.x compared to 11.x. There's also some complication of 12.x still being rolled out, e.g., to those on newer software or older vehicles. The extrapolation I used was 300M mi/mo which is is roughly 4x the 11.x rate, so combined with your estimate of 2.5x users could mean people are using 12.x 60% more or only 33% more if 3x users (or if you meant 3x additional for 4x users for 0% additional per-user usage).
In terms of what could be limits of increased usage, EPA fuel economy uses 55% city and 45% highway, so if people were basically only using 11.x on freeways then newly using 12.x for city streets could roughly double the FSD monthly mileage rate if people continued to use it for whole trips. Then again, maybe even existing FSD owners didn't realize 11.x was already better than the old stack and all the news about 12.x finally gets them to use FSD on freeways instead of manual driving / TACC / NoA resulting in more FSD mileage relative to earlier this year?
If we get the same type of data for the next few months (i.e., not split out to city-streets-only mileage), it will also be complicated by how many people end up keeping FSD and/or keep using FSD more as well as hopefully ongoing improvements to 12.x that might result in even more advocacy for FSD. Or there could be more Elon Musk tweets that get people to drive more miles with FSD or flip side of negative news about Autopilot crashes and lawsuits that could reduce FSD usage.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
This is what I meant, just really roughly. Of course users who bought FSD likely use it more on the freeways so probably it is more like 5-6x as many people using it on the freeway now with less average miles per user.
But as with most things Tesla, it is impossible to derive anything meaningful from their “data.”
This is not intended to be useful information.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Everything you're reading is just a summary of the standard.
The actual definitions are available here, but you need to sign up for an SAE account to download them: J3016_202104: Taxonomy and Definitions for Terms Related to Driving Automation Systems for On-Road Motor Vehicles - SAE International
It's 41 pages long, and is pretty comprehensive in the vocabulary it uses and the definitions it creates for that vocabulary.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
FWIW there seems to be a no-account-needed copy of J3016 here:
The chart is not really designed to be used for laymen. In other to understand it one need to understand that the the FULL DDT (dynamic driving task) includes the FULL OEDR (object and event detection).
L2 systems aren't designed to perform the full OEDR, so the human need to watch the road and be able to jump in at all times.
In L3+ (autonomous systems) the system is designed to perform the full DDT including the full OEDR. In this case the human need not watch the road or "take over immediately". The system can handle all driving where is it designed to work.
See OEDR: The Key Differentiator Between SAE Level 2 And Level 3 Automated Driving
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
This is why some OEMs use terms like "L2+" even though there is no "L2+" in the SAE levels. They also use terms like "Premium ADAS" or "hands off ADAS". It is an attempt to make the L2 point to point navigation systems stand out in the marketing from the more basic L2 systems.
DanCar
Active Member
Got the wife report. She didn't like v11 but said she does like v12. Although she mainly likes the freeway performance. She says the auto exit and auto lane change make her want to go to sleep. I doubt she is willing to pay for it though.
DanCar
Active Member
boonedocks
MS LR Blk/Blk 19”
Tesla "FSD supervised" isn't even "hands off" nor is their basic AP which is TACC + lane keep assist ... claiming that there is a thing like L3 or L4 "supervised" with hands at wheel at all times and ready to intervene at all times defeats the definitions of L3 / L4....
DanCar
Active Member
FSD down to $100 a month.
Fire sale starts early this quarter.
Fire sale starts early this quarter.
Well that should certainly get sales of FSD moving. Out of town.
Who is going to purchase FSD when the break even for the purchase price is now 10 years of subscription?
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
There are plenty of L4 vehicles with hands on the wheel at all times and ready to intervene. Every robotaxi company except for Cruise and Waymo and even they both do a lot of testing with human safety drivers.
"The level of a driving automation system feature corresponds to the feature’s production design intent. This applies regardless of whether the vehicle on which it is equipped is a production vehicle already deployed in commerce, or a test vehicle that has yet to be deployed. As such, it is incorrect to classify a Level 4 design-intended ADS feature equipped on a test vehicle as Level 2 simply because on-road testing requires a test driver to supervise the feature while engaged, and to intervene if necessary to maintain operation."
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
No one was purchasing FSD. Take rate must have been under 5%.
DanCar
Active Member
2024.3.15 Full Self Driving Supervised Version 12.3.4, 3,387 pending installs. Minor update: support legacy S&X with FSD.
FOOLSLFDRVNG
Member
Sympathies for:
Those who subscribed and had to get there scores up and wasted a few weeks. (I cheated
)
Those who paid 15k.
Those who sold there Tesla with FSD and never got to experience it and bought another Tesla without it.
Those who subscribed and had to get there scores up and wasted a few weeks. (I cheated
)Those who paid 15k.
Those who sold there Tesla with FSD and never got to experience it and bought another Tesla without it.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Through Q3 2022 at least it was above 5% in EMEA and nearer 15% in the US (though near 0 in AP- dragging worldwide rates down to the 7-8% range)
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Haha. Is this Tesla data? Voluntarily gathered data is pretty meaningless in this case (unlike capacity loss etc. - even that is imperfect). Super biased sample. 15% seems to support my under 5% I guess - seems about right for 5% or below now. I was referring to US only.
Through Q3 2022 at least it was above 5% in EMEA and nearer 15% in the US (though near 0 in AP- dragging worldwide rates down to the 7-8% range)
I mean I could believe 10% I guess. Seems a bit high.
Seems super hard to determine unless it is required to be reported.
I paid no attention to the data you posted, just FYI. Don’t know anything about it.
I can’t remember the pricing scheme or timeline. Obviously take rate went down when EAP started being offered again, no idea when that was. I of course was not speaking to historical averages, from context.
Good news: they get to experience it now for free and realize they didn’t miss much. Even got back some of their initial investment!
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