Drop 40k on a Tesla or invest 40k in Tesla stock

[ricohman]

No oil change required ever on the Prius drive except when the oil becomes acidic after aging it etches the windings on the traction motor which then short together and make for one big issue.

Although Toyota recommends inspection only these cars have the drive fluid changed every 100,000km here. It is dead simple to do and that fluid comes out looking dark at that mileage.
The Prius is by far the most popular taxi in Regina.

 

[StealthP3D]

Although Toyota recommends inspection only these cars have the drive fluid changed every 100,000km here. It is dead simple to do and that fluid comes out looking dark at that mileage.
The Prius is by far the most popular taxi in Regina.

I'm expecting the gear oil in my Model 3 to still be translucent at 100,000 miles. A Model 3 is not a Prius. According to this, a Model 3 has a Gore-tex membrane on the breather so there should be no dust or liquid water getting in.

But I won't be hitting 100,000 until 2029!

 

[inikkor]

My experience is negative. I tried to buy a Model 3. Delivery was a mess because I live in a state without SC. I went to pre-inspect the car before home delivery and found that the paint had several scratches and blemishes, granted it the flat black finish that is pretty unforgiving but still, a new car should be a new car not a used car...

Also, the ordering experience was messy. My order was wrong for most of my waiting time and it got only fixed once the VIN got assigned. Very frustrating.

The delivery manager was amazing but he cannot solve by himself he problems upstream. The factory needs to align the panels and the trims better. The painting process needs to be revamped and improved After a week of pondering I decided to cancel my purchase. My sale person was pretty bad and she made 0 efforts to retain me just like if Tesla was swimming in gold..

I wish all the best to Elon and Co. I think the potential is there and they have some really bright people on board but the execution is where the money is and they are not there yet. If I had a stock position at this point it would be a short or would hold on some long term puts.

I'm now shopping for an Alfa. Gas in this country is still cheap enough to be enjoying the trailing edge of the ICE era.

It was a short but interesting trip. Goodbye, everyone.

 

[StealthP3D]

My sale person was pretty bad and she made 0 efforts to retain me just like if Tesla was swimming in gold..

She probably realized you were one of those customers who was never going to be 100% happy. Sometimes you cut your losses and run.

Gas in this country is still cheap enough to be enjoying the trailing edge of the ICE era.
It was a short but interesting trip. Goodbye, everyone.

Have fun in whatever fossil car you end up in. We will be gliding silently by you.

 

[neroden]

Been drinking the kool-aid for a while now by owning the car and stock. Afraid the party might be ending...for the following reasons

1. 2 weeks to fix a scratch at the SC...Tesla paid 2 weeks of rental car...their service centers are bleeding like crazy still, not efficient cant get parts. Musk needs to get out of the way and hire a good ops guy, and make a culture that people are not constantly fired or leaving.

This is a valid criticism. Internal communications are bad because corporate culture is kind of toxic and disrespects human factors. Hopefully this can be fixed. The parts problem has been resolved according to recent reports, but it was the easiest part of the problem...

2. Have you seen the Benz SUV..it debuted this week on carwow,

Yeah I know it doesnt have the range, but it is beautiful. I think from design language, Tesla has got it wrong, people don't want minimilast designs like the 3. They want an interior like a Benz or Audi, with high grade finishes, contrasting materials, and plush non-minimalist interiors.

Total production volume is insiginificant, price is comparable to Model S for shorter range; this will replace gas car sales and do nothing to Tesla sales. And they can't make enough of them.

3. I am not seeing robo-taxis happening..at least not with the recent auto-pilot deaths and crashes. Yes these are probably less than human fatalities driving. The optics and the bar for computers driving is much higher than humans. The public is willing to forgive humans but not computers just yet.

Agreed. So?

4. Starting to loose trust in Elon ( there I said it, don't mean to sound blasphamous), smart guy, innovator, idea man. But cant run operations..and that is the Achilles heel. Competitors are just copying Teslsa, and executing potentially better.

You're thinking of Xpeng, BYD, and BAIC, perhaps.

Amazingly, Tesla has better aerodynamics (which means more range per kwh of battery) and lower battery costs ($/kwh) and higher gravimetric energy density (grams/kwh) than BYD or BAIC. *And* higher volume production. These are pretty unbeatable from a financial point of view, and BAIC and BYD are doing very well.

Xpeng is the only company which is openly copying Tesla outright (to the point of actually poaching employees and stealing trade secrets), and they seem to be doing very well.

I can't speak to whether their communications are better or worse than Tesla's because I don't read Chinese.

Take a look at the Benz, they have 100+ years of building cars. My VW has better fit an finish than the $100k Tesla

And it's overpriced with no range... and they can't make a significant number of them because they have no battery sourcing.

VW is finally trying to change that but they have to build a battery factory which they haven't broken ground on yet.

 

[neroden]

Well i certainly hope you all are right ..Tesla has 10 months of cash.

More like a couple of years, if you actually bother to look at numbers rather than repeating inaccurate newspaper articles

 

[neroden]

The other thing to think about is yes the product is awesome...why has the demand dropped off so much

Short answer, it didn't.

(Demand is still sky-high. First day reservation holders are still waiting for their white interior SR+ in the *US*, and in some countries there haven't been any Model 3 deliveries at all. There were some transitory effects due to the tax credit expirations in the US and the Netherlands which drove deliveries way up in the third quarter and then way down in the first quarter, but those will even out in the second quarter. Tesla seems to have run out of people who want to pay $10,000 for an extra 1/10 of a second of acceleration, so I guess demand for "Performance" models *is* dropping, but I was surprised that demand had lasted as long as it did.)

 

[StealthP3D]

More like a couple of years, if you actually bother to look at numbers rather than repeating inaccurate newspaper articles

It's probably a lot more than that. All of those projections require estimating production and sales. In other words, if Tesla reaches and maintains a cash flow positive state, it would be indefinitely.

The chance of Tesla actually going bankrupt is very slim, if they need a cash injection it could come from any of a number of sources, including Musk himself. SpaceX is going better than anyone thought.

 

[evalst2018]

More like a couple of years, if you actually bother to look at numbers rather than repeating inaccurate newspaper articles

Not sure what you are reading...but burn rate is from the man himself.

From Musk:

“This is a lot of money, but actually only gives us about 10 months at the Q1 burn rate to achieve breakeven!” writes Musk. “This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable.”

 

[mongo]

Not sure what you are reading...but burn rate is from the man himself.

From Musk:

“This is a lot of money, but actually only gives us about 10 months at the Q1 burn rate to achieve breakeven!” writes Musk. “This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable.”

Nothing like stringing together sentences from different paragraphs without context to alter perception.

From: Elon Musk

To: Everybody

Date: May 16, 2019

As mentioned at the company talk, it is extremely important that we examine every expenditure at Tesla no matter how small, and be sure that it is critical.

When making hundreds of thousands of cars, battery packs and solar systems, even a ten cent savings could be worth over $50,000 a year. There are over 10,000 unique parts and processes at Tesla, so making small improvements across the board has a giant cumulative impact.

At the same time, we must also continue to make our products subtly better in thousands of small ways.

It is important to bear in mind that we lost $700 million in the first quarter this year, which is over $200 million per month. Investors nonetheless were supportive of our efforts and agreed to give us $2.4 billion (our net proceeds) to show that we can be financially sustainable.

That is a lot of money, but actually only gives us approximately ten months at the first-quarter burn rate to achieve breakeven. It’s vital that we respect the faith investors have shown in Tesla, but it will require great effort to do so.

That is why, going forward, all expenses of any kind anywhere in the world, including parts, salary, travel expenses, rent, literally every payment that leaves our bank account must be reviewed, confirmed as critical and the top of every page of outgoing payments signed by our CFO.

I will personally review and sign every 10th page.

Please examine closely every expense where responsibility is, or probably should be, assigned to your group. If in doubt, assume it is on your plate, so that we don’t have anything slip through the cracks.

This will take at least a few weeks to get right. Please don’t worry if it isn’t correct at first.

This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable.

Thanks again for your excellent work,

Elon

 

[evalst2018]

Nothing like stringing together sentences from different paragraphs without context to alter perception.

Between building GigaChina buying Maxwell...tooling for Model Y ramp...burning through cash at service centers...they have limited cash ...10 months is long. Even Gali, Tesla fanboy has said that many times. In fact, he wanted them to raise funds last quarter..to have working capital. They finally raised just a few days ago. Most large investors bought the convertible notes and not common stock, as if they every have to liquidate...preferred holders are first in line. I don't think it will come to that but..guys look at their- 10-Ks, and dont just rehash the kool-aid you keep reading on teslaMortorsForum or youtube.

 

[StealthP3D]

Not sure what you are reading...but burn rate is from the man himself.

From Musk:

“This is a lot of money, but actually only gives us about 10 months at the Q1 burn rate to achieve breakeven!” writes Musk. “This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable.”

Note that he says "10 months at the Q1 burn rate". So that is not a projection of production and sales going forward. Q1 had a number of challenges including getting the cars to their Chinese and Euro customers, selling the $35K model to people waiting for that, etc. This was just a statement of fact intended to inspire belt-tightening, not a projection of what the cash burn rate going forward would be.

Obviously.

 

[mongo]

Between building GigaChina buying Maxwell...tooling for Model Y ramp...burning through cash at service centers...they have limited cash ...10 months is long. Even Gali, Tesla fanboy has said that many times. In fact, he wanted them to raise funds last quarter..to have working capital. They finally raised just a few days ago. Most large investors bought the convertible notes and not common stock, as if they every have to liquidate...preferred holders are first in line. I don't think it will come to that but..guys look at their- 10-Ks, and dont just rehash the kool-aid you keep reading on teslaMortorsForum or youtube.

Maxwell was burched with new stock (and cash for fractional shares)
GF3 is being financed through local loans.
Y tooling is projected to be much less than 3's.

CapEx is also not part of the P&L which is what the 700 million is referencing.

 

[evalst2018]

No double media has it out for Tesla...they barely covered the Maxwell acquisition or spoke of the competitive advantage they will get on battery and charging tech. I think the problem is public perception, with no advertising, the media's negativity is weighing down the stock and perhaps sales. Once they go for a ride or speak to other owners, they see the value. With that said..Tesla still has head winds with:
1.build quality
2. battery life/degradation
3. Cost, fixing things that had poor attention to detail

All things that can be fixed.

 

[CarlK]

Between building GigaChina buying Maxwell...tooling for Model Y ramp...burning through cash at service centers...they have limited cash ...10 months is long. Even Gali, Tesla fanboy has said that many times. In fact, he wanted them to raise funds last quarter..to have working capital. They finally raised just a few days ago. Most large investors bought the convertible notes and not common stock, as if they every have to liquidate...preferred holders are first in line. I don't think it will come to that but..guys look at their- 10-Ks, and dont just rehash the kool-aid you keep reading on teslaMortorsForum or youtube.

As I said earlier if you spent a million dollar to built a house you are not burning a million dollars. If the house you build is worth more than a million you're creating extra equities, Banks will be happy to lend you money when you do that. That's exactly what they do, Certain brainless people still could not get this simple thing straight,

 

[evalst2018]

As I said earlier if you spent a million dollar to built a house you are not burning a million dollars. If the house you build is worth more than a million you're creating extra equities, Banks will be happy to lend you money when you do that. That's exactly what they do, Certain brainless people still could not get this simple thing straight,

Wow you are so smart..you should've been the CFO.

 

[EVDRVN]

My experience is negative. I tried to buy a Model 3. Delivery was a mess because I live in a state without SC. I went to pre-inspect the car before home delivery and found that the paint had several scratches and blemishes, granted it the flat black finish that is pretty unforgiving but still, a new car should be a new car not a used car...

Also, the ordering experience was messy. My order was wrong for most of my waiting time and it got only fixed once the VIN got assigned. Very frustrating.

The delivery manager was amazing but he cannot solve by himself he problems upstream. The factory needs to align the panels and the trims better. The painting process needs to be revamped and improved After a week of pondering I decided to cancel my purchase. My sale person was pretty bad and she made 0 efforts to retain me just like if Tesla was swimming in gold..

I wish all the best to Elon and Co. I think the potential is there and they have some really bright people on board but the execution is where the money is and they are not there yet. If I had a stock position at this point it would be a short or would hold on some long term puts.

I'm now shopping for an Alfa. Gas in this country is still cheap enough to be enjoying the trailing edge of the ICE era.

It was a short but interesting trip. Goodbye, everyone.

Tesla sales people are in general poorly trained and the organization is poorly managed to say the least. I have given trainings to some stores employees and often they know little to none let alone have any retention skills. Delivery was crazy and incompetent most times and they seem to think that if people were lining up to buy they could slack on the back end. Elon does not know the true meaning of CS and how to implement that at large scale. Unfortunately this management issue trickles all the way down. Enthusiasm and energy is useless when people on the front line are not empowered or have no conduit.

 

[StealthP3D]

With that said..Tesla still has head winds with:
1.build quality
2. battery life/degradation


All things that can be fixed.

Tesla has the lowest battery degradation/highest battery lifespan of any EV maker out there. As to build quality, I would argue it's so overblown on the Internet it's not even funny. Both of our Model 3's were without significant flaws unless you call a couple of dust specks in the paint "significant flaws". I don't, you practically need a magnifying glass to see them. No one can see them from 3 feet away.

Tesla is held to a different standard than other automakers. I don't think we paid Tesla prices to get more perfect paint. No, it was because they are the best electric cars on the planet, bar none.

 

[evalst2018]

Tesla has the lowest battery degradation/highest battery lifespan of any EV maker out there. As to build quality, I would argue it's so overblown on the Internet it's not even funny. Both of our Model 3's were without significant flaws unless you call a couple of dust specks in the paint "significant flaws". I don't, you practically need a magnifying glass to see them. No one can see them from 3 feet away.

Tesla is held to a different standard than other automakers. I don't think we paid Tesla prices to get more perfect paint. No, it was because they are the best electric cars on the planet, bar none.

My Tesla has more miles than yours...when you cross 50k miles, lets see if you are happy with the degradation. Sounds like you are new to EVs and cars.

 

[StealthP3D]

My Tesla has more miles than yours...when you cross 50k miles, lets see if you are happy with the degradation. Sounds like you are new to EVs and cars.

You don't think the Model 3 will fare as well as the Model S in terms of minimal battery degradation after 100,000 miles?