Based on the model S order tracking spreadsheet nearly 60% of the new orders in June were 60/60D. I suppose this number will settle down once the initial rush of new buyers attracted by the lower price isn't as prominent anymore. So, my question is, by the end of this quarter, how many percent of new model S orders will be 60/60D?
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Why would the order profile change? The 60 is attractive and more car for your money than a 75 unless you must drive long distances constantly or live in cold winter climates (Quebec/Ontario/Calgary/Norway). The 60 is what seems to be chosen in the hot California market because of the number of superchargers scattered about, the mild climate offering most real-world range and the lower price, of course. The more superchargers are deployed, the less need for larger-batteries in the cars. If the 60 is priced to get under the German limit on incentives - it is working great to get USA buyers to choose it over the 75.
Buyers have various mindsets. Economical + green (get an MS60 due to lower price and rational needs) or fun (P90DL or similar) or practical (just get a 90D, it's peace of mind). For those giving up leases in Leafs and Volts and not wanting to wait for a Model 3 - the MS 60 makes sense. It may also have been a desire to draw in the Model 3 buyers earlier through pricing and availability.
Buyers have various mindsets. Economical + green (get an MS60 due to lower price and rational needs) or fun (P90DL or similar) or practical (just get a 90D, it's peace of mind). For those giving up leases in Leafs and Volts and not wanting to wait for a Model 3 - the MS 60 makes sense. It may also have been a desire to draw in the Model 3 buyers earlier through pricing and availability.
Demand is the major challenge Tesla faces until the Model 3 arrives. Comments on this thread Model X inventory car purchase seem to indicate the "Osborne Effect" has begun. Discounts are available on the X's and hundreds of S's are now in inventory. Moving delivery to September is a brilliant marketing move, It's hard to sell capacity constrained when you have immediate delivery on the web site.
Contributors on the thread mention "hundreds" Another thread reports a Model 3 reservation holder received a call from a Tesla rep offering a discounted S because he would be "waiting 3 years for his 3".
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
A Tesla Rep called and tried to upsell? This action smells more like a hoax, phish, scam. Sales commission from upsell? New sale model from Tesla? If MY phone rang with this offer, I'd expect a bridge to come with it.
Anyone else get a call today about the Model 3? If the OP want's to confirm, should be easy: call the number back. I would suspect a limited amount of folks knew he was on the reservation list.
Not hard to sell it to supports who disregard the data that contradicts their adamant position.
Tesla probably usually didn't deliver the following month anyway due to batching. So adding one month to the delivery estimate may be more accurate.
And this:
"I was in the Portland store today and they have access to about 100 Inventory cars. That will double in the next two-three weeks I was told. They will not be listed on the Tesla site you have to go in and talk to someone. They are really looking to move cars fast for some reason."
In the month of June, Tesla had next month delivery on all product. June was a rough month PR wise. Do you believe demand spiked enough to warrant listing September as earliest delivery? If there is a plant shutdown in July or August it won't be for a model change over, they've already done that with a refreshed S.
I believe the plant is shut down this week. Early in the quarter they probably manufacture for export. So they may not be making many
North American cars in July, meaning US lead times could be longer than usual.
Although I don't really don't pay too much attention to the small numbers such as adding of a month for delivery. They showed in 2015 Q4 that they could make a whole lot of model S when they have the orders (Q4 was Model X fence sitters deciding on the model S).
The change over to new autopilot hardware may be a big deal if it includes a new dash. I see Tesla eventually delivering a less conventional dash on the S/X.
North American cars in July, meaning US lead times could be longer than usual.
Although I don't really don't pay too much attention to the small numbers such as adding of a month for delivery. They showed in 2015 Q4 that they could make a whole lot of model S when they have the orders (Q4 was Model X fence sitters deciding on the model S).
The change over to new autopilot hardware may be a big deal if it includes a new dash. I see Tesla eventually delivering a less conventional dash on the S/X.
If they really wanted to move the cars as fast as possible, it makes 0 sense they would not be listed on the Tesla site.
Perfectlogic
Member
Even though you and I seem to be on the same page on the demand picture I don't think you should put too much into the wait going to September. Most of the deliveries take place in September both for the US and international. In order to lower the cars in transit at the end of the quarter they produce cars for international in the first half.
Inventory cars and upsell calls to Model 3 reservation holders, if true, really proves the demand constrained thesis. And the S60 launch too obviously, I don't know how people can continue to say demand is no problem at all with all these new data points. Didn't expect for the S60 to make up more than 50% of sales, if that really proves to be true then I think Tesla will have a really hard time becoming profitable for quite a while.
That would be telling the customers and the investment community that there is a demand problem. Very touchy subject for investors.
Tesla's approach likely makes the most amount of "cents". The sales reps can call their prospects and offer a discount on on the inventory cars.
Remember, these are supposed to be "build to order" only.
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I actually have not looked at the sheet for some time, but is it normal that there is such a small backlog. It seems like cars with 149xxx VINs are going into production while the newest VINs are around 151000.That's basically just 1 week from confirmation to production. And those are low spec (60kWh) US cars at the starts of the quarter. Maybe there is some EU batching, but a 146600 VIN for the Netherlands has already been build.
Am I missing something? Tesla seemed very confident about orders matching the 2000+ production capacity a week, but they don't even seem to have filled July production. I mean there are also Model X, but those don't seem to move very fast and hover around 11000-13000 VINs with some stating August production.
Also people confirming their cars are in production:
Model S Delivery Update
Model S Delivery Update
Thanks for the "color" on September deliveries. Another reason to buy inventory cars (at a discount) vs. order.
Since inventory cars have always been discounted the same since when they first sold them, there's not much of a discount really ($1 off for each mile + $1000 off for each month). That's roughly a 2% reduction in gross margin for month-old vehicles who have already been used as demo or service vehicles. Those who want brand new gets the custom order, and those who don't care as much about spec will get the inventory. Sounds like a good marketing move to me.
Since there hasn't been any change in pricing, it's not an indicator of demand. The owner referral discounts would be a better indicator, and I think that program has wound-down already now hasn't it?
Spidy, can you point me to official words or verbal answers on calls where they are officially saying that 2000 or more customer orders are coming in per week (ignore M3 for now)? I have heard numerous times of 2000-2200 per week production levels but I have not heard of any confirmed numbers of actual "named customers" producing 2000/week total orders. If you include the re-stocking of the sales lots, sure, you can hit 2000/week at times. You are seeing the same thing many people do in the Vin # list - roughly 1000/week there for May into June and the MS 60s need to step it up to help maintain that rate. Slight uptick in July - about 1050/week with 6 days in on the spreadsheet. June was 969 and May was 927.
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