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I'm aware this might be slightly off-topic but since this is about demand: what about the perception around demand for Tesla. There was a guy on the German TFF forum who spoke to a guy working at Mercedes Benz (there you have it, very very weak source - I know) but rumor has it that people working at MB simply don't believe the 400k reservations for Model 3 are real and that Tesla can be happy if they sell some 15k Model 3 - the whole proposition is laughable (for instance, why would a cheaper Tesla sell less than the expensive one etc.) but if some of these misconceptions are part of what forms the Wall Street consensus around the TSLA narrative, I can explain some of the Tesla FUD better...
I'm aware this might be slightly off-topic but since this is about demand: what about the perception around demand for Tesla. There was a guy on the German TFF forum who spoke to a guy working at Mercedes Benz (there you have it, very very weak source - I know) but rumor has it that people working at MB simply don't believe the 400k reservations for Model 3 are real and that Tesla can be happy if they sell some 15k Model 3 - the whole proposition is laughable (for instance, why would a cheaper Tesla sell less than the expensive one etc.) but if some of these misconceptions are part of what forms the Wall Street consensus around the TSLA narrative, I can explain some of the Tesla FUD better...
That inflection point is pretty!
I suspect total vehicles should be more since 5k deposit is for X, but S is 2.5k. So somewhere between 80-160k vehicles.
...the incredulity I experience still to this day that my car is "all electric" is why I continue to believe that Tesla has a lot of room to grow. There are people I talk to almost on a daily basis that do not even know what a "Tesla" is. I live in a metropolitan area too, and we have a Tesla store. The market penetration is so minimal right now.
Teslawareness is a deep deep untapped well of potential in most regions still.
I was one of those people at a Tesla store early when you could give a deposit for your Model 3 on March 31st. I arrived very early in the morning before people get up for work thinking I would be the 3rd or 4th person in line. I was the 29th in line. By the time 10:00 in the morning came and the store opened, there were about 150 people behind me. It was a cold morning and people still came out to give their deposits in person.
There are video and news feeds of many stores having 500 people waiting in line in the morning before the store opened to leave their deposit. This is real! We are talking about over 350,000 deposits now. Even if it is only 100,000, which it is not, it would still be an unbelievable number of people willing to wait 1.5-2 years for a car that they have not yet test driven.
I predict that the Model 3 demand will be larger than the demand of "pony" cars started by the Ford Mustang back in 1964. By 2019-2020, if Tesla can stay close to their production schedules, we could be looking at 1,000,000+ cars sold/reserved yearly...and, it will just get bigger with the Model Y.
I already own a Model S (over 3.years old with almost 70k miles) that is a phenomenal car and a step above all other cars I presently own or have owned in the past. And, I have owned MB, Audi, Porsche, Nissan, Volvo, BMW, etc. It is tough to describe the driving experience and feeling you have while driving other than to say that Tesla is currently delivering a paradigm shift in the automotive market.
I track a couple of my cars, specifically my 911 and GTR and they are awesome driving experiences on the track and on the road, but, our Tesla Model S gives me a bigger thrill each time I go out for a drive. Once the broader public gets the chance to experience driving the Model 3, which will be made for the mass audience, demand will just explode. The instant torque, the handling, the feel, the way the steering wheel just feels in your hands, the view out the front. All of these sensations will convince people that this car is just better than what they are presently driving. And, the bonus is that they will never have to visit a gas station again. Just plug it in at night like their iPhone and have a full tank of electricity in the morning to drive at least 220 miles+ Before having to charge again...and the additional bonus you have is that the Tesla Superchargers (that are FREE) will be all over the world so you have no worries when driving long distances.
These value propositions cannot be beat by any other auto manufacturer presently. Tesla has such a huge advantage right now that continues to grow longer by the day as other auto Manufacturer's continue to make compliance cars. We welcome the competition and know they are capable, they just are not delivering and Tesla is and will continue to do so.
One final thought...at least Tesla has stepped up to the plate over the last 10 years to give the world a real use electric car that is every bit as good if not better than an ICE car. Yes, their introductions gave been late each time, but, they did deliver, in spades. What are we getting so far from the so-called automotive Manufacturer's that are supposed to be experts...nothing! We are talking about a start-up that, we all admit are having teething pains, was given no chance to survive and they are currently hitting Grand Slams.
But there are not likely areas with many high net worth household that are untouched by Tesla.
160k backlog. Meanwhile you can order a car and receive it in 4 weeks while the production rate is 50k yearly. Not even math laws can hold Tesla down.
That's been my experience.Everyone who rode in the car was blown away.