Demand

[luca]

Where is the demand issue?

First two months delivery of NA in Q2 is 4450
First two months delivery of NA in Q1 is 2800 Total Q1 delivery is 14820

Wait time in China is 4 months!

highest X Production vin 1122X
highest X Sig vin 29XX


Do not forget tesla will release p100d 100d at any time later this year which can also boost demand

 

[Spidy]

First two months delivery of NA in Q1 is 2800 Total Q1 delivery is 14820

Tesla even released a statement that they were not happy with those numbers, so I'm not sure how that supports great demand. Also multiplied by 4 it would be 60k cars so nowhere close the 80-90 guidance. Obviously Tesla will ramp up, so it's not a indication of the next quarters.

highest X Production vin 1122X

Not sure what this is supposed to tell me. According to inside EV Tesla already has 5k Model X sales and I expect a big push in June so production is probably already way past that. That production number should be reached in 1-2 months.

highest X Sig vin 29XX

?

Most people talk about demand mean in the future, especially since with Tesla the narrative always was that they are production restrained.

 

[luca]

Tesla even released a statement that they were not happy with those numbers, so I'm not sure how that supports great demand. Also multiplied by 4 it would be 60k cars so nowhere close the 80-90 guidance. Obviously Tesla will ramp up, so it's not a indication of the next quarters.


Not sure what this is supposed to tell me. According to inside EV Tesla already has 5k Model X sales and I expect a big push in June so production is probably already way past that. That production number should be reached in 1-2 months.


?

Most people talk about demand mean in the future, especially since with Tesla the narrative always was that they are production restrained.

First two months in Q1 NA 2800 final delivery 14820 in Q1
First two months in Q2 NA 4450 how many final delivery in Q2

 

[electracity]

Anyone have a guess at the number of model S sold in the first half?

 

[Drivin]

Anyone have a guess at the number of model S sold in the first half?

My rough guess is 22,165

 

[GoTslaGo]

My rough guess is 22,165

Pretty precise for a rough guess. Sure it's not 22166?

 

[Drivin]

Pretty precise for a rough guess. Sure it's not 22166?

I find it interesting that people like to guess in "nice"numbers. 22,123 is just as random as 22,000 but 22,123 just sounds less random.
Maybe I watched too much price is right as a kid.

 

[neroden]

OK, a data point. Looking at the Inventory/CPO consolidator, there are a couple of suspicious runs of cars with nearly-consecutive VINs and low mileage. I think Tesla actually deliberately manufactured inventory cars at some point in 2016 (not sure when).

I have two speculative ideas for why.
(1) There are people who come into the Tesla stores and want a car NOW. Tesla decided to deliberately produce inventory for these people to satsify this type of demand. So that they wouldn't keep buying the showroom models and leaving the stores with no showroom model.
(2) There was a point somewhere in Q1 or (less likely) Q2 when the Model S backlog ran out, before it was refilled.

I'd love to hear evidence pointing either way, or any other theories.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

OK, a data point. Looking at the Inventory/CPO consolidator, there are a couple of suspicious runs of cars with nearly-consecutive VINs and low mileage. I think Tesla actually deliberately manufactured inventory cars at some point in 2016 (not sure when).

I have two speculative ideas for why.
(1) There are people who come into the Tesla stores and want a car NOW. Tesla decided to deliberately produce inventory for these people to satsify this type of demand. So that they wouldn't keep buying the showroom models and leaving the stores with no showroom model.
(2) There was a point somewhere in Q1 or (less likely) Q2 when the Model S backlog ran out, before it was refilled.

I'd love to hear evidence pointing either way, or any other theories.

batching. Maybe one configuration/color combination wasn't popular enough to fill an entire batch run, so they filled up the batch with inventory cars?

 

[ggr]

Don't forget that there are occasions where people have configured their cars, and they're in production, when something goes wrong and they can't take delivery. There was an example in another thread just a day or two ago. That would be a brand new car that would end up as a demonstrator or CPO.

 

[schonelucht]

batching. Maybe one configuration/color combination wasn't popular enough to fill an entire batch run, so they filled up the batch with inventory cars?

No. The most recent range are all a different color (also different interior, also pano yes/no etc)

Don't forget that there are occasions where people have configured their cars, and they're in production, when something goes wrong and they can't take delivery. There was an example in another thread just a day or two ago. That would be a brand new car that would end up as a demonstrator or CPO.

A range of 40 consecutive VINS that can't take delivery?

Tesla makes inventory cars. This quarter alone approximately 1400.
.

 

[bonaire]

batching. Maybe one configuration/color combination wasn't popular enough to fill an entire batch run, so they filled up the batch with inventory cars?

Three Model X are at the Tesl store here. They have three Vin # in series, one after the next. They have Marketing on the windshield sticker. Demos. Effectively inventory cars, since some Tesla stores are even selling their Demo model X already. Someone here said they just got one for $4500 off with 1100 miles on it.

 

[neroden]

No. The most recent range are all a different color (also different interior, also pano yes/no etc)

A range of 40 consecutive VINS that can't take delivery?

Tesla makes inventory cars. This quarter alone approximately 1400.

Tney're not all inventory. A bunch are marketing / demo cars. We know that they were replacing the entire marketing car lineup. They needed to make sure there's a front-fascia-refresh Model S and a Model X in every showroom. They needed about 480 cars for that.

They might have made more -- bonaire points out that there are *three* "marketing" Model X in his local showroom. We now know Tesla specifically distinguishes between cars for "marketing" and cars for "inventory" with windshield stickers.

So there might be roughly 900 inventory cars, or there might be a lot fewer if they made more marketing cars.

(To forestall other speculations: we know they've switched the loaner fleet over to CPOs to avoid the depreciation hit, so none of the 1400 are for loaners.)

I'm currently leaning towards the theory that they're trying to keep a small inventory at the most popular stores in order to handle the "I want it NOW" group of rich buyers without depleting their showroom fleet.

 

[pGo]

I believe the demand related question should be looked at along with gross margins implications. MS and MX has way less demand at $100k and 30% margins than them offered at $75k and 22% margins. I believe at this point, Tesla will have to introduce a cheaper MX in the next 3-4 months just like recent MS 60 release to spur demand. This has implications on margins and Tesla may not be able to make gross margins goals.

 

[bonaire]

Tney're not all inventory. ...

They might have made more -- bonaire points out that there are *three* "marketing" Model X in his local showroom. We now know Tesla specifically distinguishes between cars for "marketing" and cars for "inventory" with windshield stickers.

In my case, the Tesla store has just about 20 total Model X on July 2nd. I don't know what is inside in their service bays and I assume also the one inside the showroom is "marketing". That makes at least five if not more marketing units at my store. The three Vin #s in series is telling of blocks of Model X made for marketing purposes appears to have been made before customers cars. And that is expected too because follow-on orders require test-drives, demo usage, touch-and-feel.

 

[bonaire]

I believe the demand related question should be looked at along with gross margins implications. MS and MX has way less demand at $100k and 30% margins than them offered at $75k and 22% margins. I believe at this point, Tesla will have to introduce a cheaper MX in the next 3-4 months just like recent MS 60 release to spur demand. This has implications on margins and Tesla may not be able to make gross margins goals.

An X60D in city environments would do fine. No need for long-range travel if you are driving around a warmer city region like LA or SF or WPB in FL. But how much to drop the price? Not the $8500 as seen on the MS 60. I'd think $6500 less would work.

The TMC tracking sheet shows a lot of S60 and S60D are being ordered and discussed. Very popular.

 

[pz1975]

Every store needs at least 1 Model X and S in the showroom as a demo and a 2nd Model X and S available for test drives. So that's a minimum of 4 cars needed for every store. Some already had them of course but it's totally logical that with the production issues dealt with that they would choose to "fill" the stores lacking 1/some of those 4 needed cars now. I know my local store only got a Model X for test drive about a month ago and still don't have an X in the store.

 

[ggr]

Every store needs at least 1 Model X and S in the showroom as a demo and a 2nd Model X and S available for test drives. So that's a minimum of 4 cars needed for every store. Some already had them of course but it's totally logical that with the production issues dealt with that they would choose to "fill" the stores lacking 1/some of those 4 needed cars now. I know my local store only got a Model X for test drive about a month ago and still don't have an X in the store.

And, they have made an effort to ensure that the Model Ss are the refreshed ones.

 

[neroden]

OK, so if the target is 2 cars of each model per showroom for marketing, that's about 960 cars. This means about 400 "inventory" cars in the last quarter, or 1 per store on average. Not a huge number.

 

[schonelucht]

Tesla currently lists 300 stores on their website.