Coronavirus

[SageBrush]

The mortality(death rate) being represented by TV physicians to the public for COVID-19 in the US tends to be aproximately 2% as they now understand it. This compares with the mortality of flu being presented of about 0.1%. This seems to suggest COVID-19 is 20x more lethal than flu as I understand it in this very early experience data.

Look back in this thread for mortality by age group. Public health officials tend to tally a measure called years of life lost. The notion is that if an average person lives to e.g. 85 years old but is killed by a disease at age 80 then 5 years of life were lost. If the person was 25 when killed by a disease then 60 life years were lost.

If you want to compare to influenza then take into account the different mortality by age group and the different infectivity rates by age group.

 

[KarenRei]

The mortality(death rate) being represented by TV physicians to the public for COVID-19 in the US tends to be aproximately 2% as they now understand it. This compares with the mortality of flu being presented of about 0.1%. This seems to suggest COVID-19 is 20x more lethal than flu as I understand it in this very early experience data.

That would be including Wuhan data. Outside of Wuhan, numbers are closer to 1%. Heavily biased toward the elderly and those with preexisting conditions, and with unusually low incidence and severity rates in children.

Supposedly there's no difference in strains between inside and outside of Wuhan, and the difference is simply due to treatment quality and methodology vs early cases in Wuhan.

 

[SageBrush]

Summary for South Korea (SK):

The Christian Cult at the epicenter of the SK outbreak had representatives in Wuhan that subsequently returned to SK and infected large numbers of members through their meeting practices and dictates to hide cult membership, lie about being in Wuhan, lie about contacts, and preachings that their 'faith' protects them from infection. The cult also practiced aggressive recruitment practices.

The kicker ? The cult numbers some 230,000 members, and there are another 100,000 or so members in training.

The cult is now cooperating with authorities but I think it is too late for containment methods and I'll frankly be amazed if S. Korea is not the first country to demonstrate the cruise ship experience, meaning almost universal exposure.

If I was inclined to short stocks the S. Korean companies would be at the top of my list. Certainly other countries should consider an isolation of S. Korea

 

[EVCollies]

If I was inclined to short companies the S. Korean companies would be at the top of my list.

You might need to include companies relying on South Korean parts in their supply chain.

 

[avoigt]

Some news from Italy.
The italian strain has been isolated and studied. First findings suggest that the strain has been around since... october!
In Piacenza in november they had a spike in pneumonia cases not linked to any specific cause (like low air quality). Piacenza is very close to Codogno, one of the villages that are being quarantined.
Ricostruiti i primi mesi di vita dell’epidemia Covid-19 | La Statale News
Link is in italian but there is a study published on the journal of medical virology Early Phylogenetic Estimate Of The Effective Reproduction Number Of 2019-nCoV

Thats very encouraging because if the first infection in Italy happened back in October the virus had a long time to spread undetected and when a few weeks ago they started to test a large number of infection have been found. That number has been assumed to be all short term infections but if October is correct a fair portion would be much older.

Thats of importance because the rate of new infection as a trend does matter to understand how fast the virus spreads in a given timeframe.

I don't speak Italien but maybe you can translate some key sections for us? Thx.

 

[avoigt]

Summary for South Korea (SK):

The Christian Cult at the epicenter of the SK outbreak had representatives in Wuhan that subsequently returned to SK and infected large numbers of members through their meeting practices and dictates to hide cult membership, lie about being in Wuhan, lie about contacts, and preachings that their 'faith' protects them from infection. The cult also practiced aggressive recruitment practices.

The kicker ? The cult numbers some 230,000 members, and there are another 100,000 or so members in training.

The cult is now cooperating with authorities but I think it is too late for containment methods and I'll frankly be amazed if S. Korea is not the first country to demonstrate the cruise ship experience, meaning almost universal exposure.

If I was inclined to short stocks the S. Korean companies would be at the top of my list. Certainly other countries should consider an isolation of S. Korea

On top there was one infected person that did visit 4 different get togethers with thousands of people present in a short timeframe and has infected hundreds of them. Most of the infections can be tracked back to that older lady which is why I am not as concerned as most about South Korea.

Its of course very bad what happened and their today announced infection rates are the highest in the world but since its known what happened you can track and trace and isolate. New infections rate will hopefully plateau soon like we have seen it in China.

 

[SageBrush]

Thats very encouraging because if the first infection in Italy happened back in October the virus had a long time to spread undetected and when a few weeks ago they started to test a large number of infection have been found. That number has been assumed to be all short term infections but if October is correct a fair portion would be much older.

Your scenario is very unlikely because it presumes that people do not clear the infection for months. The few anecdotes I have read from China find that people become test negative shortly after they enter the convalescent stage of illness.

 

[SageBrush]

On top there was one infected person that did visit 4 different get togethers with thousands of people present in a short timeframe and has infected hundreds of them. Most of the infections can be tracked back to that older lady which is why I am not as concerned as most about South Korea.

I can be traced back to a single mitochondria, but that has not stopped the human population from expanding at an alarming rate.

 

[Causalien]

That would be including Wuhan data. Outside of Wuhan, numbers are closer to 1%. Heavily biased toward the elderly and those with preexisting conditions, and with unusually low incidence and severity rates in children.

Supposedly there's no difference in strains between inside and outside of Wuhan, and the difference is simply due to treatment quality and methodology vs early cases in Wuhan.

You can track the change in strain here:

auspice

Though, the newly discovered strain from the Italian report is odd. Cause if it is that different, it would represent a completely different branch from all the strain detected here. But the one that is being tracked only has a divergence of 2.

By the way, the branching data is constantly being updated. In the beginning it was a mess, but today upon rechecking, the relationship has become a lot more clear. The asian strain and the strain that is invading Europe has clearly specialized themselves to each region.

 

[EVNow]

P100 half-masks are still available here for ~$30.



I'm worried about how we stop the spread when most Americans live paycheck to paycheck AND lack paid sick days. #UBI #PTO

Good thing we have robust healthcare everyone has access to.... oh wait... that's all the other countries #We're screwed

IMO, people who aren't taking corona seriously in the US are likely those who live in isolated upper class bubbles and have no idea how bad the health care situation is in US.

Most people in US

- Do not have sick leave. So they have to go to work to get any money at all.
- If they don't go to work, they can be fired and lose whatever insurance they have

- Have insurance with high deductibles and do not have money to throw away to get tested for CV19 if they get cold like symptoms
- Have insurance that might still refuse to pay for testing leaving people with $3,000 bills

I don't expect very high death rates, but I expect a lot of disruption leading to a recession. I won't be surprised if CA and other western states announce school closure in a couple of weeks. Already a school near me was closed because one of the people who works there had a family member who had just returned from China and has cold symptoms. We also have a person with infection - with no known contacts with anyone who has been to China or SK. So, we have community spread infection now in CA, OR and WA.

I can see people self-quarantine and don't go out of home in a few weeks. This will bring travel, restaurant and other industries to a complete halt.

This couldn't have come at a bad time for Tesla - with China GF3 just expanding and Y about to come out. We should expect atleast a couple of bad quarters.

​

 

[avoigt]

Vietnam did cure all Corona Virus infections.

Just 16, but another example that you can win!

"If fighting COVID-19 has been a war, then we have won the first round but not the entire war because the situation can be very unpredictable," Vietnam's Ministry of Health"


Coronavirus miracle? Vietnam says all its infected patients cured

 

[Kuhz]

Coronavirus death in King County, WA. Press conference at 1PM

 

[DanCar]

Live stream:

Another video feed:

 

[avoigt]

In Italy 3 regions open their schools again 3 other will remain closed until March 4th

"It is true that the speed of growth of cases has been reduced as a result of the restrictive measures adopted in China. "

"An epidemiological-molecular investigation carried out on 52 complete viral genomes of the pathogen, from which emerges a key estimate: "The origin of the Sars-CoV-2 epidemic can be placed between the second half of October and the first half of November 2019, therefore a few weeks earlier than the first cases of pneumonia identified"."

Coronavirus, studio italiano all'Oms: epidemia da ottobre, contagi raddoppiati ogni 4 giorni

 

[lascavarian]

Trump in press conference now. Looks worn out. Talking about Afghanistan first.

Edit: President announces there are now 22 cases in the US and of that 22 the first (hopefully only) has died. I believe he said that there are 4 or 5 that have a serious case. He was not specific as to what that meant but I take to mean very sick.

It seems these cases are mostly in the 3 west coast states.

The news has been reporting 60 some US cases but that includes cases moved to the US from other countries. There are 43 million masks available for 300 some million population but they plan to add 30 some million masks each month.

 

[Doggydogworld]

This is more than a stretch. The high-rises in China do not have centralized air-conditioning that circulating air into different homes. The residents don't share food from the same cafeteria. You believe what you want to believe.

That's helpful info, thanks. I confess to being clueless about Chinese high rise HVAC. I'm also completely stunned to hear Diamond Princess was preparing meals onboard during the quarantine. What were they thinking?

This NYT article discusses Zuoling New Town, a COVID-19 hotspot on the outskirts of Wuhan. It gives some theories why it became a hotspot and has some random pics (not all of Zuoling) for flavor. It also has this nugget:

On the first day of February, Zuoling New Town had 11 cases, according to community records. A week later there were 79. By Feb. 11, the number of confirmed infections was 116, including four deaths. At that point, officials stopped sharing the information, to the fury of many residents. Some have claimed online that Zuoling has hundreds of infections.​

They stopped sharing numbers around the time Hubei switched counting methods (see Karen's charts). Conspiracy or coincidence? Probably the latter, but there are strong incentives to manage the numbers. As for social media, it's one thing to speak out when government is in denial. It's quite another to "be a team player" and help prevent panic when the government is doing everything possible to solve the problem.

Meanwhile, community spread is showing up in the US despite our "don't test, don't tell" policy. They wouldn't test the CA woman or this Brooklyn man who got sick after returning from Tokyo. It's probably not COVID-19, though tests for flu and other things were all negative. They just sent him home. He self-quarantined, but how many are that civic-minded?

 

[SageBrush]

The asian strain and the strain that is invading Europe has clearly specialized themselves to each region.

You are confusing evolution with random antigenic drift of no clinical consequence.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

You might need to include companies relying on South Korean parts in their supply chain.

That would be a large part of Tesla’s EV competitors. Many get their batteries from LG Chem, Samsung SDI and SK Innovation. In 2019 they produced almost 100 GWh of EV batteries in South Korea and this year that is supposed to increase to more than 140 GWh.

South Korea: xEV battery production capacity by leading producers 2017 | Statista

 

[UnknownSoldier]

The first US death has been reported in King County (Seattle) and the patient had no known previous contacts with others.

The virus has escaped containment in the US. It's only a matter of time now. There may be hundreds or thousands of people walking around asymptomatic in Washington state already.

It was nice knowing you guys, we had a lot of fun together. I need to go spam Amazon for some nonexistent masks now and pray I'm not in the 0.2% who actually do die from this in my age group.

edit: There are many sellers on Amazon who claim to have surgical masks in stock. Let's see if anything actually ships and in a decent time frame.

 

[Curt Renz]

The first US death has been reported in King County (Seattle) and the patient had no known previous contacts with others.

The virus has escaped containment in the US. It's only a matter of time now. There may be hundreds or thousands of people walking around asymptomatic in Washington state already.

It was nice knowing you guys, we had a lot of fun together. I need to go spam Amazon for some nonexistent masks now and pray I'm not in the 0.2% who actually do die from this in my age group.

edit: There are many sellers on Amazon who claim to have surgical masks in stock. Let's see if anything actually ships and in a decent time frame.

Why do you disallow me from visiting your profile page?