Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

I meant: Australia has about 4-5 months before things start to get real again. That is when winter comes. So they must continue crushing the virus with vigor. Goal should be zero community cases in the next few weeks, with extremely strong & rigid border controls with forced quarantine. They are well positioned to accomplish this now! Hopefully the vaccine will render the border controls unnecessary in 5-6 months (proof of vaccination needed to travel), but best to contingency plan.

With any luck they'll be able to establish a bubble with New Zealand.

 

[madodel]

Feds passed up chance to lock in more Pfizer vaccine doses

While the Federal Government did pre-purchase 100 million doses (50 million persons get 2 doses) but once those are used up then there won't be more for the US until June or later as Pfizer has sold out their vaccine to other countries. This means that people who get the first dose will have to be certain they get the correct second dose before that vaccine runs out.

 

[ZeApelido]

Guess it's time to read 1984 again.

 

[madodel]

Guess it's time to read 1984 again.

More like Lord of the Flies, Piggy has COVID edition.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Context:
https://twitter.com/firenzemike/status/1335684429520506881?s=21

 

[SMAlset]

Jenna Ellis, Guilani’s co-counsel, has covid according to White House sources.

from CNN:
Trump campaign lawyer Jenna Ellis contracts coronavirus, source says - CNNPolitics

 

[Jeff N]

New info on how the Oxford vaccine ended up with a bunch of half-dose first inoculations in their phase 3 trial. It didn’t happen in Brazil, as I had heard earlier. It was a screwup by the Oxford folks themselves on testing done in the UK.

Oxford hired an outside manufacturer to produce large quantities of the vaccine for the trial. But when researchers received a sample of the vaccine and measured its strength, they noticed something strange. Using a different measurement technique than the manufacturer, Oxford found the concentration of viral particles in the vaccine to be double the level that the manufacturer had found.

Oxford researchers didn’t know which measurement to trust. They decided to use a lower-strength dose. That way, even if their measurement was wrong, the dosage was sure to be safe, albeit smaller than originally intended.

Participants would get two injections, which were supposed to be about a month apart. Oxford began administering the vaccine. Within a few days, participants reported fewer side effects like sore arms or slight fevers than participants had during the first trial. The Oxford researchers later identified an ingredient in the outside manufacturer’s vaccine batch that had skewed their measurement upward. That confirmed they were using a half-strength dose.

Blunders Eroded U.S. Confidence in Early Vaccine Front-Runner

 

[madodel]

Does anyone understand how this is supposed to work? Is it some sort of magic enchantment?

COVID-19 Update: UK Begins Vaccinating Citizens; President Trump to Sign Executive Order Prioritizing Vaccine Shipments to Americans; and More - Docwire News

President Trump to Sign EO Prioritizing Vaccine Shipment to Americans
President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order on Tuesday which will prioritize the shipment of a COVID-19 vaccine to Americans before other nations, according to senior officials and reported by CNN. The signing is expected to take place during a vaccine summit at the White House, and is intended to quell any fears that there won’t be enough vaccine to go around to each American after dispensing begins.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Well, if that guy doesn't know, who could?
‘I literally don’t know’: Operation Warp Speed scientist can’t explain Trump’s vaccine order

"Moncef Slaoui, who Trump tapped in May to head up the administration’s efforts to hasten vaccine development, appeared puzzled when asked to clarify the president’s order during an interview on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”

“Frankly, I don’t know, and frankly, I’m staying out of this. I can’t comment,” Slaoui said. “I literally don’t know.”
“You don’t know?” asked anchor George Stephanopoulos.
“Yes,” Slaoui said.
“But you’re the chief science adviser for Operation Warp Speed,” Stephanopoulos pressed.
“Our work is, you know, rolling,” Slaoui replied. “We have plans. We feel that we can deliver the vaccines as needed. So I don’t know exactly what this order is about.”

--------

Probably fired tomorrow.

 

[JRP3]

New Does anyone understand how this is supposed to work? Is it some sort of magic enchantment?

It's complete grandstanding and meaningless BS. He loves to scribble his signature and then show it off.

 

[Causalien]

Who would have thought that increasingly undermining science and facts, telling people that there is no 'truth' and somehow opinion = knowledge would have lead to a world where so many people are unable to distinguish between how they want the world to be and how the world is...........

I have given up trying to educate ppl or help ppl with COVID. It was a sad day when I realize that they hate my help and that I am ok with them dying.

 

[madodel]

I have given up trying to educate ppl or help ppl with COVID. It was a sad day when I realize that they hate my help and that I am ok with them dying.

I understand. For me though it is about trying to get people to understand that their bad choices and complete misunderstanding of how medicine works leads to others getting this and then flooding the hospitals and putting not just healthcare workers at risk of getting sick and dying but also literally killing people who need to be in the hospital but either can't get a bed or get substandard care because the staff is overwhelmed. So even if they hate you tell them to wear a mask.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Possibly some severe reactions to the vaccine for sensitive people
UK probing if allergic reactions linked to Pfizer vaccine

"...investigators look into whether two reactions on the first day of the country’s vaccination program were linked to the shot.
Professor Stephen Powis, medical director for National Health Service in England, said the advice was issued on a “precautionary basis” and that the people who had reactions had recovered.
...
In the meantime, the Medical and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency has said people should not received the vaccine if they have had a significant allergic reaction to a vaccine, medicine or food, such as those who have been told to carry an adrenaline shot — such as an EpiPen — or others who have had potentially fatal allergic reactions."
-------------------------
Not uncommon, guess it was to be expected.
And another reason we need to get to herd immunity - preferably through vaccinations.

 

[NikolaACDC]

New Data Reveal Which Hospitals Are Dangerously Full. Is Yours?

"The federal government on Monday released detailed hospital-level data showing the toll COVID-19 is taking on health care facilities, including how many inpatient and ICU beds are available on a weekly basis.

Using an analysis from the University of Minnesota's COVID-19 Hospitalization Tracking Project, NPR has created a tool that allows you to see how your local hospital and your county overall are faring.

It focuses on one important metric — how many beds are filled with COVID-19 patients — and shows this for each hospital and on average for each county.

The ratio of COVID-19 hospitalizations to total beds gives a picture of how much strain a hospital is under. Though there's not a clear threshold, it's concerning when that rate rises above 10%, hospital capacity experts told NPR.

Anything above 20% represents "extreme stress" for the hospital, according to a framework developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

If that figure gets to near 50% or above, the stress on staff is immense. "It means the hospital is overloaded. It means other services in that hospital are being delayed. The hospital becomes a nightmare," IHME's Ali Mokdad told NPR.

The University of Minnesota's analysis shows that there are 55 counties where the hospital average has reached that rate."

 

[madodel]

At least they are starting to plan for its arrival. A small snippet of info from one of our local nursing homes:

"The vaccine distribution and administering it is his major concern right now. Which one they get, and how it will be delivered, in unknown. Some outside entity is coming in to vaccinate there.

Moderna is being manufactured in NH, Indiana and PA. Because it is part of Project Warp Speed, all the Moderna vaccines must be first shipped to Texas, for the government to re-distribute. So, our local Sanofi produced vaccines must travel cross country, twice.
They have rented two freezers for keeping the vaccine. Pfizer vaccine is the most difficult one to transport and store, due to the need for deep freezing. Moderna only required normal refrigeration."​

 

[SMAlset]

Bloomberg is reporting that the CDC believes the US will reach 300,000 deaths by Christmas from covid. I think it is easy to loose sight of how many people that is. To imagine the true impact of that number look at this CDC 2010 census listing of large cities and which cities would be wiped out if all deaths were located there.

https://www.cdc.gov/500cities/pdf/500-cities-listed-by-state.pdf

December Smashes Records for Virus Cases as Deaths Near 300,000
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

the US will reach 300,000 deaths by Christmas from covid

More like by early next week!

And we'll definitely have over 330k reported by the end of the year (probably 370k dead by the end of the year, they just won't be reported yet). Just rough numbers. Racking them up rapidly now.

My guess of 310k by the end of the year, from September, was wrong. Not even close.

We'll be seeing daily reports of between 4-5k deaths per day (I don't expect over 5000 deaths reported on a given day, but it's probably not out of the question) before the end of the year, with the 7-day average over 3000. That's baked in now.

The virus really hasn't gotten that much less deadly. Still killing with impunity. CFR seems to be sticking pretty tightly to the range of 1.5-1.7%. IFR probably around 0.5-0.6%, but remember that includes some effective shielding of the vulnerable (it is imperfect of course) so does not represent the true uniform attack rate IFR. Which is probably 0.7% or so. 7-day average case rate is 200k per day, so that means 7-day average death rate of 3000-3400 deaths per day about 4-5 weeks later. Wednesdays are typically around 45% above the average, so that gives you 4400-5000 deaths (reported) on a Wednesday in our future.

I don't get the sense any of the treatments are that helpful, except the monoclonals (when given very early, as they were to Rudy). Just shaving around the edges. And good care from hospitals probably saves the lives of a few patients as well. Heartbreaking. Trump says it is terrific though. 'Terrific' 15% of Americans have had COVID-19 -Trump | Reuters Video

"That's a very powerful vaccine in itself." Fact check: the disease is not a vaccine.

 

[SMAlset]

Beyond the sadness of loss of those that died and will die is the emotional loss for those family members left behind and the impact to be felt for a long time by our communities. We’re WFH and pretty much have been SIP going out for groceries and take out for most part. Long time being home bound but then I think of our essential workers and our dedicated medical workers all the time. Grateful for what they do everyday.

 

[madodel]

Angela Merkel pleads with Germans to hunker down ahead of Christmas in emotional address

In the US when any public official talks about restrictions to stop the uncontrolled deaths and hospitalizations, they get death threats. In Germany Angela Merkel got applause.

 

[wdolson]

Bloomberg is reporting that the CDC believes the US will reach 300,000 deaths by Christmas from covid. I think it is easy to loose sight of how many people that is. To imagine the true impact of that number look at this CDC 2010 census listing of large cities and which cities would be wiped out if all deaths were located there.

https://www.cdc.gov/500cities/pdf/500-cities-listed-by-state.pdf

December Smashes Records for Virus Cases as Deaths Near 300,000
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

I saw 296K dead on this site today:
Coronavirus Dashboard

I saw 286K dead elsewhere. At the rate of deaths being reported now, we'll probably pass 300K dead by the end of this week.

Here is one way to put this into perspective:

US incompetence with handling the virus has killed more Americans than any single enemy the US has ever faced in any war. The 291K dead from WW II was from three different enemies. The deaths from the Civil War are from both sides.