Coronavirus

[Daniel in SD]

To my knowledge smaller studies have shown mixed (at best) results. I don't know of any large scale study that has tried large doses of intravenous vitamin c. Studies are costly, and without a big "payoff" there is little support from non-profit medical research institutes, ironic don't you think

I agree that we should have more government funded studies of existing drugs (for example, the dexamethasone study was funded by the UK government).
Was just thinking today that it would be interesting to do a study of transmission in restaurants. Set up booth outside the door. Have volunteers take a PCR test now and then pay them $200 when they show up a week later to get a second test. Sequence all the positive samples to verify transmission and find out exactly how well it spreads in restaurants.
I suspect some of the logic behind closing even outdoor dining (which they've done in Los Angeles now) is that restaurants are a place where people from different households meet and speak directly into each others faces for an hour.

 

[Dave EV]

I suspect some of the logic behind closing even outdoor dining (which they've done in Los Angeles now) is that restaurants are a place where people from different households meet and speak directly into each others faces for an hour.

That is an excellent point. I know of many people who actually go to restaurants for the purpose of eating with people outside of their household. They are crazy and the reason why we're in this mess. Another demographic are teenagers - I often see a whole tableful of them eating outside at a restaurant sitting shoulder to shoulder. Or a mass of them walking down the sidewalk in a huddle.

 

[TespaceX]

California is now mostly back in shelter in place.

At the same time, some in Georgia have never heard of COVID.

 

[cwerdna]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-b6360f40-84f9-469b-b6a3-a4568e161c4f

Many of us are desperately hoping new and effective coronavirus vaccines will soon transport us back to our pre-Covid lives. But many scientists are warning that their arrival probably won't mean throwing our face masks in the bin anytime soon.

Also, what we call shots in the US are "jabs" in the UK. I'd heard and seen that before. Cramer briefly mentioned it on Mad Money the other day.

As much as there's been hype in the news about people traveling by plane due to Thanksgiving, it's apparently been elevated in the US for quite awhile. If you look at https://twitter.com/stranger_quark/status/1334317895195639810?s=20 (data comes from TSA checkpoint travel numbers for 2020 and 2019 | Transportation Security Administration).

Was hearing on the radio a test positive figure (bolded) like Coronavirus live updates: California reports record-breaking 25,000 cases in single day, data shows says for California

Coronavirus cases in California reached new record-breaking heights on Friday with another 25,068 cases reported, bringing the state's total to more than 1.3 million, according to latest state data. The seven-day positivity rate has risen to 9.7%. A total of 209 people died of the virus on Friday, the second highest single-day total since July 31. More than 9,400 Californians are hospitalized and 2,182 are in the ICU.

Uh oh. That's not good. Once we start seeing the surge due to Thanksgiving, I'm not sure the new tougher CA restrictions (e.g. ones in the Bay Area that will last until Jan 4 and whatever's happening in the Los Angeles area) will be enough. It might take us quite awhile to get our test positivity rate back down and ICU capacity back to reasonable levels.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Once we start seeing the surge due to Thanksgiving, I'm not sure the new tougher CA restrictions (e.g. ones in the Bay Area that will last until Jan 4 and whatever's happening in the Los Angeles area) will be enough. It might take us quite awhile to get our test positivity rate back down and ICU capacity back to reasonable levels.

You might be right, but I hope you are wrong. I hope people started being much more careful two weeks ago and we might see results soon. But the messaging has been terrible.

Maybe after this settles down we can actually reopen carefully. And only open stuff that does not spread the virus (as others just suggested, we should take some time to really figure this out - what else do we have to do?) It appears an important element is continuously reminding people that they must use precautions all the time even when disease levels are low.

My guess is once the vaccine starts rolling out, everyone will pretend the pandemic is over though. “It does not matter, all the vulnerable people have been vaccinated.” That’s next.

I am trying very hard to not come this far, only to catch the virus right before a vaccine becomes available. And I fear for my parents in Oregon.

 

[Dave EV]

You might be right, but I hope you are wrong. I hope people started being much more careful two weeks ago and we might see results soon. But the messaging has been terrible.

This seems unlikely, at least here in San Diego with cases on a dramatic rise. We hit a record for on Nov 30th - with more still to be reported. That's about 5 days after Thanksgiving which is about the time you need to pick up COVID and develop symptoms.

It looks like we'll hit triple the peak we had in July quite easily and I doubt it will slow down. People that are inclined to go out and spread COVID are still going to do so.

So far the death rate has remained fairly steady, but we're probably 2-4 weeks away from seeing a dramatic rise there. What's worrisome is that the 65+ crowd appears to be picking up COVID at an alarming rate, which is one commonly overlooked factors when looking at CFR. Still too many stories of young, otherwise healthy people dying or suffering from severe symptoms and side-effects.

It's hard to imagine another 6 months of this.

 

[cwerdna]

You might be right, but I hope you are wrong. I hope people started being much more careful two weeks ago and we might see results soon. But the messaging has been terrible.

Maybe after this settles down we can actually reopen carefully. And only open stuff that does not spread the virus (as others just suggested, we should take some time to really figure this out - what else do we have to do?) It appears an important element is continuously reminding people that they must use precautions all the time even when disease levels are low.

The problem is that too many people aren't careful and still believe it's a hoax or overblown. I posted some example on Nov 18th at Coronavirus.

A reply on a friend from high school's FB page about COVID-19 garnered this reply just yesterday. Sigh... I don't know the person who wrote this reply, only the HS friend.

The real concern is how Covid deaths have not increased the overall US deaths as reported by the CDC's own data. The death counts presented are completely misrepresented and most all others causes of death (stroke, heart disease, cancer, etc) have dropped leading me to believe that the classification of a Covid death is incredibly skewed. The survival rate is over 99%, it might not be fun if you get it but it is largely survivable unless you are already dying from something else. None of this justifies cratering the economy, destroying children's development, and allowing communists to infiltrate our once great nation. Alternative news media is the only source of truth as mainstream news outlets and social media are not independent voices.

If people believe it's a hoax, overblown, that masks don't work (I still see at least one or two people that are FB friends of friend saying garbage like that), you can bet that they're likely not very careful, socially distancing, wearing masks, haven't read studies showing how contagious it is (I and others have posted many here), etc.

And there are people who don't seem to be thinking much beyond their own risk taking and who else it might affect like at Corona virus and oil crash.

But if I go to someone's house for the holidays and get covid it effects me only because I knew the risk and took it. This isn't a mask in public or attending a concerts or cinemas issue, it's a privet home and everyone attending accepts the risk issue.

Uh, no. It's more than that. Everyone in attendance might catch COVID-19 and spread it further into the community and cause people who didn't attend to end up in the hospital or die.

That's why I and another person had to reply at Corona virus and oil crash and Corona virus and oil crash. You can be almost certain the overblown, hoax and anti-maskers will not be thinking about this at all or that the consequences will be minimal or nothing at all.

On a side note, there's 7 nursing home Covid-19 deaths reported after staff attended wedding.

Seven Washington state nursing home residents with Covid-19 died after staff members attended a 300-person wedding that violated the governor's coronavirus restrictions.

The deaths were at three nursing home facilities in Grant County, health officials said Thursday. They were men in their 70s, 80s, and 90s who had underlying health conditions, according to a press release by the Grant County Health District.

Four additional deaths are pending death certificate reviews.

The health department said it is looking into whether the deaths are linked to a Nov. 7 wedding in Ritzville, about 59 miles southwest of Spokane, but an investigation found that some staff members at the facilities had tested positive after attending the event.

 

[cwerdna]

Uh oh: Southern California and San Joaquin Valley trigger stay-at-home order as ICU capacity drops.

Two regions in California, San Joaquin Valley and Southern California, have triggered the state’s new stay-at-home order after capacity in their intensive-care units fell below 15%, according to the California Department of Public Health.
...
Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday said the state would be split into five regions — the Bay Area, Greater Sacramento, Northern California, San Joaquin Valley and Southern California. If the remaining ICU capacity in a region falls below 15%, it will trigger the stay-at-home order, he said. Newsom warned that every area was projected to drop below 15% ICU capacity at some point in December.

San Joaquin Valley’s ICU capacity dropped to 8.6% as of Saturday, while Southern California’s capacity, which includes Los Angeles and San Diego counties, dipped to 12.5%, according to a statement from CDPH.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

It looks like we'll hit triple the peak we had in July quite easily and I doubt it will slow down.

So far the death rate has remained fairly steady, but we're probably 2-4 weeks away from seeing a dramatic rise there. What's worrisome is that the 65+ crowd appears to be picking up COVID at an alarming rate, which is one commonly overlooked factors when looking at CFR

Yeah we are headed to 30 deaths a day (7-day average) in San Diego, around the new year. That’s about 4x our prior peak.

I agree with what you and @cwerdna are saying.

In the US it is basically a guarantee now that we will see a single-day total of over 4000 deaths. 7-day average may exceed 3000 deaths. Things just keep getting worse. The temporary peak prior to Thanksgiving has passed and it looks like it will be surpassed by a nice post-Thanskgiving peak. We’ll find out more about that this week.

It actually has surprised me somewhat how bad the surge has been in the West. I thought it would have a slower acceleration, but it has been bad enough it is more than enough to compensate for the reduction in cases in the Midwest. No real sign of slowing yet.

The interesting thing this week will be to see if there is any resurgence in the Midwest from the holiday. You’d expect to see that start to really show up this week (one week post exposure).

 

[uujjj2]

Mrs. Uujjj is an emergency doc in Northern California, and watching the situation deteriorate in real time. Mr. Uujjj and the Uujjj kids have been staying with Grandpa Uujjj and minimizing our contact with Mrs. Uujjj. Some text messages from Mrs. Uujjj after a string of shifts this week:

(texts with personal conversation edited out)

"So much covid..."
"I'm so tired... I can't seem to get out of the car"
"I still need to do my decon" (decontamination procedure)
"I'm too tired"
"I think I'll just sit in the warm Tesla and sleep?"

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Mrs. Uujjj is an emergency doc in Northern California, and watching the situation deteriorate in real time. Mr. Uujjj and the Uujjj kids have been staying with Grandpa Uujjj and minimizing our contact with Mrs. Uujjj. Some text messages from Mrs. Uujjj after a string of shifts this week:

(texts with personal conversation edited out)

"So much covid..."
"I'm so tired... I can't seem to get out of the car"
"I still need to do my decon" (decontamination procedure)
"I'm too tired"
"I think I'll just sit in the warm Tesla and sleep?"

Sounds bad. I am sorry that you and Mrs. Uujjj have to deal with this. And I hope all stay well.

 

[SMAlset]

So Rudy Guiliani has covid. Not surprised. Given his age he may wish he’d been wearing a mask, although I’m sure as I’ve read for some other Trump favs that Trump will see he gets the best stuff.

From Reuters:
Rudy Giuliani tested positive for coronavirus, Trump says

 

[Daniel in SD]

So Rudy Guiliani has covid. Not surprised. Given his age he may wish he’d been wearing a mask, although I’m sure as I’ve read for some other Trump favs that Trump will see he gets the best stuff.

From Reuters:
Rudy Giuliani tested positive for coronavirus, Trump says

I guess there was no cross immunity from the other bat diseases.
Rudy Giuliani Tests Positive For Slew Of Obscure Bat Diseases Unrelated To Covid-19

 

[cwerdna]

So Rudy Guiliani has covid. Not surprised. Given his age he may wish he’d been wearing a mask, although I’m sure as I’ve read for some other Trump favs that Trump will see he gets the best stuff.

From Reuters:
Rudy Giuliani tested positive for coronavirus, Trump says

CNN was also showing footage of and reporting on Giuliani going around in a Georgia statehouse w/no mask, shaking hands w/people, hugging people, etc. See below.
Rudy Giuliani potentially exposed hundreds to Covid-19, doctor says - CNN Video

Good going!

 

[PACEMD]

I don't know if it's true but I hear Giuliani has been rushed to John Hopkins Total Landscaping...........

 

[cwerdna]

Yeah, supposedly he's been hospitalized per numerous sources, including from this Fox affiliate:
Trump's attorney Rudy Giuliani hospitalized after contracting COVID-19.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Yeah, supposedly he's been hospitalized per numerous sources, including from this Fox affiliate:
Trump's attorney Rudy Giuliani hospitalized after contracting COVID-19.

He says he is doing fine. Presumably he’ll get the monoclonal cocktail even though that is apparently reserved for non-hospitalized patients. I’m sure they will make an exception in this case (maybe they gave him the infusion before admitting him).

On the upside, this will serve as an N=1 observational study about whether masks reduce the viral dose, and thus reduce disease severity.

Also another patient to add to observational studies of whether monoclonal antibodies are helpful.

I wish him well. It is what it is! Sometimes you do your best in life and bad things still happen.

 

[cwerdna]

Covid-19 deaths could nearly double in U.S. by April despite rollout of vaccines, report warns
Hope to check back on April 1st to see how accurate the UW IHME prediction was this time.

• The U.S. is forecast to see a cumulative 539,000 deaths by April 1, according to a Dec. 4 report published by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine.
• IHME researchers said that the expected vaccine rollout only reduces the death toll by 9,000 before April 1 and said that a rapid rollout targeting high-risk people could save 14,000 more lives.
• Researchers also said that increasing mask-wearing to 95% can save 66,000 lives by April 1.

Winter Covid surge is the 'worst event that this country will face,' White House health advisor Birx says

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think they'll get vaccines out to the nursing homes real fast. Easy enough to vaccinate a group of people already lined up and in shouting distance of a nursing staff. That should stem the tide of deaths. Cases will continue to explode apparently.

Dumbass Doug Pederson shared many a hug and close-in kind word with all the Green Bay Packers players and staff after yet another loss.

Rudy strikes me as someone who, though crotchety, might not make it through. Even with the absurd "rich guy cocktail" at his disposal. We shall see. Feel great for the families of all the people he no-mask hugged yesterday in Georgia.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Hope to check back on April 1st to see how accurate the UW IHME prediction was this time.

Their projections have been much better as of late after they stopped using a silly model. They've still tended to be biased on the low side I believe, though.

I think they'll get vaccines out to the nursing homes real fast. Easy enough to vaccinate a group of people already lined up and in shouting distance of a nursing staff. That should stem the tide of deaths. Cases will continue to explode apparently.

Vaccinating everyone in the LTCFs will eliminate 40% of the total deaths (I think they make up about 10% of infections) assuming 100% effectiveness in that age group. So it'll drop the death rate by that amount.

But this projection makes a lot more sense when you realize IHME is projecting 440k deaths by February 1st. People would have to be fully vaccinated in mid-January to avoid death by February 1st. There isn't going to be a huge amount of vaccination by then (it takes a month to be fully vaccinated, or perhaps 5-6 weeks including the proper immune response to the vaccine, for full protection). Anyway, that's 160k deaths in basically the next 7 weeks. That's an average of 3200 deaths per day, a bit higher than we are used to. Dr. Birx is right! It is going to be bad.

And then rapidly after the vaccine rollout things slow down. But they slow down, vaccine or not. Probably because everyone will be so terrified that the model assumes sanity will return and people will decide not to get COVID for a change. Also partial herd immunity helps slow things down (at a great and unacceptable cost).

It seems a perfectly reasonable projection, though I am hopeful that their estimate will be somewhat high. If we do universal masking they think we could save 55k deaths by April. I say we try it, even if some people don't think masks help.

I still think we should have made our goal zero cases in the US. By April 2020 would have been a good goal. Would have been great for Elon to be right.